NFL Preview: AFC West
Leading up to the NFL season kickoff, Nick Tedeschi and Cliff Bingham will break down each division and offer recommended bets with the last offering being a look at the playoff picture and overall Super Bowl wagers. It is a must for every fan.
PART 2: AFC WEST
Nick Tedeschi
The AFC West is one of the easiest divisions to get a grip on this year. The San Diego Chargers win and they win by plenty.
Last season, I picked the Chargers by default. They were struggling with personnel issues, they lacked a running game and they just had a history of failing. But I couldn’t see any of the other three teams jumping out of the ground to catch them.
The truth is, even though the Chiefs won the division and the Raiders went 8-8 for the first time in Al Davis’ walking-dead phase, the Chargers blew the division. Those early player holdouts, a horrid special teams, an inability to move the ball on the ground, questionable coaching from Norv Turner and a worrying trend of losing to obviously inferior teams cost them dearly.
They should bounce back this year with expected improvement, a regression from the Chiefs and the Raiders and the fact the Broncos are coming off too-low-a-base to challenge.
Let’s start with the positives. Phillip Rivers is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, a player who could do his own Aaron Rodgers this year. There are no Marcus McNeil or Vincent Jackson holdouts this year so the passing game will not be as reliant on Antonio Gates, the clear top tight end in the NFL. Malcolm Floyd and Patrick Crayton are above average second and third receivers making the passing game one of the most threatening in the NFL.
Defensively, the Chargers can match it with most teams. They have a top safety man in Eric Weddle and could field an elite pair with new acquisition Bob Sanders if Sanders can stay healthy. Combined with a nice looking defensive front, the Chargers look like they will be very healthy against teams who can throw which, if the passing game fires, will be most of their opponents.
With more stability and a special teams that cannot get any worse, expect the Chargers to improve to a 12-win team and comfortably claim the AFC West.
None of the other three will challenge, either for the division or a wild card.
The Oakland Raiders will revert back to the embarrassment the team is after the astonishing but very-Raiders like decision to fire Tom Cable after Cable led them to an 8-8 season, their first season above five wins since 2002, alienating the playing group and replacing him with the untried Hue Jackson and surrounding him with a string of unqualified former Raider players and coaches. The Raiders have lost four-time pro bowl cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha, the best cornerback in the NFL, their leading receiver in tight end Zach Miller, high potential lineman Robert Gallery and speedster Johnnie Lee Higgins. They again drafted with almost criminal stupidity. And their decent luck with injury won’t hold. The Raiders have a quality defensive front and a good running back in Darren McFadden but they will probably ignore all that and throw deep with weak-armed quarterbacks. The Raiders are no better than a 6-7 win team and even that may be generous.
Kansas City improved to 10-6 last year to claim the division but they won’t get the breaks they did last year. Their schedule has toughened up markedly, they led the league in injury luck and they had a quality offensive coordinator who helped get the most out of star running back Jamaal Charles and wideout Dwayne Bowe. With head coach Todd Haley likely to assume control of the offense (a significant downgrade), a reduction in luck in both injuries and turnovers, a much harder draw and a net loss in roster turnover, the Chiefs are headed for a six win season.
There is improvement in Denver. The reign of terror that Josh McDaniels bestowed upon the Broncos is over with the much saner John Fox now in charge. Pass rusher and leading 2009 sack-man Elvis Dumberil returns after missing all of 2010 with a torn pec while the secondary, led by Champ Bailey, surely cannot have as much bad luck with injury this year. The additions of Ty Warren, Willis McGahee, Derrick Harvey and Dante Rosario are all positive. Knowshon Moreno will get more opportunity under Fox. There should be more stability at quarterback with Tim Tebow put on ice for the meanwhile at least. The Broncos should get to six, maybe seven, wins and build a base for 2012 but they are coming from too far back to make a real impact this season.
Predicted Finish: San Diego 12-4, Denver 7-9, Oakland 6-10, Kansas City 6-10
Recommended Bets
· 2.5 units on Denver OVER 5.5 wins at $1.91 (IAS)
· 3 units on Kansas City UNDER 8 wins at $1.67 (IAS)
· 1.5 units on San Diego OVER 10.5 wins at $2.10 (IAS)
Cliff Bingham
Last year they went a collective 9-7 against the NFC West (if ever there was a metric for how much the AFC West also sucks, surely this is it), 8-8 against the AFC South and 2-6 against the rest of the AFC, finishing seventh in my divisional power rankings. This year they get the AFC East (predicting 5-11) and the NFC East (predicting 6-10), so as a collective I think the AFC West will slump from an uglier-than-it-looked 31 wins to a downright crappy 25 wins. Suffice to say, I don’t think either AFC wild card team will come from this division.
Once again this feels like San Diego’s division to lose, a task they ‘successfully accomplished’ last season by losing five matches against sides clearly worse than them: Oakland (twice), Seattle, St Louis and Cincinnati. I still don’t trust Norv Turner-coached sides as far as I could throw them, but the one thing that the Chargers do substantially better than their AFC brethren is compete well against quality sides – last season they narrowly lost to New England and defeated the Colts handily. As weird as it sounds, their playoff chances are actually enhanced by a tougher schedule that exposes the weaknesses of the rest of the AFC West.
Last season Kansas City went 8-1 against the NFC West, Denver (twice), Buffalo at home, Tennessee at home and a Jake Delhomme-led Cleveland… and 2-5 against everyone else. The much tougher 2011 draw does them no favours, nor does the reputed infighting between coaching staff during the final game of the 2010 regular season and their one playoff match where they got shellacked by Baltimore. Seems like all the ingredients are in place for a significant slide in 2011.
Along similar lines, last year Oakland won all six games within their division, two out of four against the crappy NFC West … and none of their other six matches. While a new coach in Hue Jackson may bring some fresh approaches to the role, it’s important to remember that he was previously the Raiders’ offensive coordinator, so many of the same structures will remain. When the three quarterbacks on your depth chart are Jason Campbell, Trent Edwards and Kyle Boller, it’s best not to get your hopes up.
Things look troublesome at Denver already, with a QB controversy already brewing. The big problem appears to be that while Kyle Orton is (for the time being at least) clearly the superior passer, sentiment appears to be with the younger Tim Tebow. Firing former head coach Josh McDaniels was a smart move, replacing him with a 56-year old who just ended his lengthy tenure at Carolina with a 2-14 season was not. Somehow I don’t think he’s going to pull the Broncos out of the mire here.
Predicted finish: San Diego 9-7, Kansas City 6-10, Oakland 6-10, Denver 4-12
Recommended Bets
Nil
