February 18 Racing Selections

Tips for this weekend cover the February 18 meetings at Flemington (featuring  Black Caviar in the Group 1 Lightning Stakes), Warwick Farm (featuring three Group 2 races) , Doomben and Morphettville.

 

Final report card for 2011 and revised rules for 2012 tips

Results for February 11  selections

Tips which were either scratched, outside the prescribed track conditions or too short in price

Scratched – nil

Odds too short (less than $6 SP) – First Command

Tips where the SP was in the $6-$9.50 range (1 unit bets)

Vivid Vixen ($8.50 SP) – unplaced

Mr Unforgettable ($7.00) – unplaced

February 11 results: 2 selections, 2 units bet, no winners

2012 results: 10 selections, 10 units bet, no winners

Tips where the SP was in the $10+ range (0.5 unit bets)

Rangirangdoo ($17.00 SP) – unplaced

February 11 results: 1 selection, no winners

2012 results: 3 selections, 1.5 unit bet, no winners

Overall Results

February 11: 3 selections, 2.5 units bet, no winners

2012: 13 selections, 11.5 units bet, no winners

 

Saturday February 18

Flemington (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 3 No. 8 Lethal Arrow

I thought his second-up run was full of merit when carrying 59.5 kilos off a 26-day break (second-up) when fourth behind Over Quota at Sandown. He meets that galloper 6.5 kilos better off today and will have taken more benefit from that run than others who had already reached peak race fitness this preparation. But the critical stat for mine is his record when third up or later into a campaign – nine starts for four wins and four placings.

Race 8 No. 8 Bigelow

His first up run was tremendous when carrying 60 kilos to finish third to African Pulse (giving the winner four kilos) and Hot Spin (who then ran third to Eagle Falls and First Command last week, edging out Karuta Queen) when first-up at Caulfield over 1000 metres. He’s won two of three attempts at the trip with the one failure being at Group 2 level, while he was a winner at his only previous Flemington outing.

 

Warwick Farm (tips based on a track rating range of dead 4 to slow 7)

Race 4 No. 9 Sienna Red  

Now fourth-up this preparation, she should be approaching full race fitness after three runs that while underwhelming on paper, are consistent with her history early in a campaign. She is a horse that needs racing and really starts to shine around this distance range (two wins and a second from four starts) and at Warwick Farm (a win and a second from three starts). The thing I like best about her though is the weight pull she gets from a couple of key rivals here – she meets Thumbtacks 3.5 kilos better for being beaten in a photo last September, while she meets Skateboard four kilos better for being beaten 2.4 lengths at Canterbury two starts back. That’s good enough for me.

Race 8 No. 8 Hood

His form last preparation was excellent, with form through Top Drop and Under The Eiffel stacking up really well for a race such as this. He’s had two trials to prepare for his first-up run and has an excellent fresh record, winning three of his four first-up races to date. All of his race wins thus far have come on rain-affected tracks and with his ability to go forward, he will take some catching in the short Warwick Farm straight.

 

Doomben (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 6 No. 4 Elusive Port

His last start seventh to Steel Zip in a Quality Handicap at the Sunshine Coast was better than it appeared on paper, as it was his first run in over six weeks. He meets the winner two kilos better at the weights and has a strong record over the mile, with a win and two seconds from four attempts (including a win and two seconds from three goes at the track/ distance). He should also be suited by the likely drier track, having struck unsuitable heavy and slow tracks this campaign prior to his last run. This is definitely the most suitable race he has found so far this preparation.

 

Morphettvile (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 4 No. 7 Cellarmaster  

Everyone seems to have dropped off him at an unusual time to my eye. He was a huge risk last start when lugging 58.5 kilos (finishing third) and his run prior to that was full of merit when narrowly defeated by Bertucci, who is the clear favourite for a Listed race on this same program and shooting for four straight wins. He also has form through Zedi Knight and Wealthy Lad this preparation and with only 54.5 kilos this time around, I think he has finally found a very winnable race.

 

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Thanks to Matt King/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo