AFL 2012 Season Preview – Richmond, Fremantle and Western Bulldogs
The 2012 AFL season looms large on the horizon – new coaches, new structures and once again this year, a new entrant to the competition. How will it all shake out? In part three of our season preview, Greg Oberscheidt and Cliff Bingham look at Richmond as well as a further two teams with new senior coaches in 2012 – Fremantle and the Western Bulldogs.
Previous Instalments
Part 1: Introduction, Greater Western Sydney, Gold Coast and Port Adelaide
Part 2: Brisbane, Adelaide and Melbourne
RICHMOND
2011 record: 8-13-1 (12th place)
Home and away season – average points for/ against: 94.0 points for, 108.9 points against (86.4 per cent)
Home and away season – record against top-8 teams: 2-8-1 (played three teams twice)
Home and away season – record against bottom-8 teams:6-5 (played three teams twice)
Home and away season – record in games decided by two goals or less: 2-1-1
Teams played twice in 2012: Melbourne, Carlton, Fremantle, Essendon, Port Adelaide (combined 2011 record of 45-62-3)
GO
Jungle drums are beating at Punt Road. Hardwick has held the reigns for long enough that that the group has now embraced his game plan and the Tigers looks set to break the shackles in 2012.
They have a quality midfield group. Cotchin will win a Brownlow or two before his journey is over and Dustin Martin looks like a modern day Leigh Matthews – strong and skilful and with a keen goal sense. He needs to develop the defensive side of his game a bit further, but with his increased running capacity, this should be a formality. Deledio is a star of the competition and with the assistance of Foley and Jackson, they have a great balance in the middle.
Their defence is workman-like but Hardwick has them combining well together, such that their individual shortcomings are lessened by the work ethic of the collective group.
Reiwoldt is a proven match winner and with Ty Vickery proving to be a handy foil and the defensive pressure of King and Nahas their forward structure is looking pretty handy.
Depth is an issue though, particularly across the spine, and might be just enough to keep them out of the finals. 2012 outlook – 11 wins.
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There is a lot to like about the work of Damien Hardwick at Punt Road. The Tigers squad has only three players with over 110 games of senior footy under their belt, but a further 16 who have played between 40 and 110 games. With Deledio, Cotchin, Martin and Riewoldt all under the age of 25, the Tigers have much to look forward to in the future.
However, as I noted in the discussions about Adelaide and Melbourne, to be a true finals ‘sleeper’ you need to get the season off to a fast start. Richmond will play Carlton, Collingwood, Geelong and West Coast in the first five weeks, and will have played every 2011 finalist by the conclusion of Round 10 – so much for a fast start to 2012.
In many respects I have them pegged in a similar place to Melbourne – a regenerating side pointed in the right direction, but still with its work cut out to see finals action this season. 2012 outlook – 10 wins.
FREMANTLE
2011 record: 9-13 (11th place)
Home and away season – average points for/ against: 81.4 points for, 98.0 points against (83.1 per cent)
Home and away season – record against top-8 teams: 2-9 (played three teams twice)
Home and away season – record against bottom-8 teams: 7-4 (played three teams twice)
Home and away season – record in games decided by two goals or less: 3-2
Teams played twice in 2012: Port Adelaide, West Coast, Adelaide, Richmond, Melbourne (combined 2011 record of 43-65-2)
GO
They got their man in Ross Lyon and by all reports the playing group has responded well to his hard-lined approach. Pavlich has led from the front in the preseason, shedding some kegs to be in the best shape he’s seen for five years. With the great man set to spend more time in front of the sticks, the Dockers can build around their superstar.
Their midfield is solid, especially if Mundy and Barlow can regain their 2010 form. Keep an eye out for Josh Mellington who has massive wraps on him out west. Nate Fyfe was a revelation last year and will continue to impress. There is a lot of James Hird about this kid and his future is incredibly bright.
The Dockers have a strong and well balanced defence to the point where McPharlin who was a bee’s stork away from All-Australian honours last year will spend plenty of time up forward to give Pav a chop out.
Sandilands is an issue for Freo, with their behemoth reported still suffering some lower leg issues. If he can get up and stay fit then the Dockers are an outside chance at their first flag. Expect to see them in the mix come September. 2012 outlook – 15 wins (‘ladder’ side in 2012).
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Come back to Round 18 of last season for a moment with me. Hayden Ballantyne misses a shot after the siren and the Dockers lose by a point to West Coast. Had they won that game, they’d have moved to a 10-6 record on the season. Instead, a tidal wave of injuries finally caught up with them and they failed to win again for the remainder of the season. They were a potential 14-8 team who got derailed at the worst possible time.
Their list is full of talented young players who will only get better with experience. To wit: the likes of Ballantyne, Fyfe, Lower, Morabito, Barlow and Mzungu have all played less than 50 senior games.
To my mind the Dockers are the proverbial wolf in sheep’s clothing this year – a 14-win calibre team who only failed to produce the goods last year because of bad luck. I just wish Mark Harvey was still in charge – we’d have gotten a better price about the Dockers making the finals that way. 2012 outlook – 14 wins (‘ladder’ side in 2012).
WESTERN BULLDOGS
2011 record: 9-13 (10th place)
Home and away season – average points for/ against: 93.6 points for, 98.0 points against (95.6 per cent)
Home and away season – record against top-8 teams: 1-11 (played four teams twice)
Home and away season – record against bottom-8 teams: 8-2 (played two teams twice)
Home and away season – record in games decided by two goals or less: 0-3
Teams played twice in 2012: St Kilda, North Melbourne, Sydney, Geelong, Brisbane (combined 2011 record of 57-51-2)
GO
Another club with a first year coach. McCartney will want his troops firing from day one and much like Sanderson, has put the senior players on notice and will be expecting results from a proven group.
Brian Lake returns from multiple injuries and appears to have a new lease on life. He is the type of player that you can build a club around; I personally hope he regains the form that had his name mentioned with Scarlett and Glass as one of the best fullbacks of the modern era. Ryan Hargreaves also had little impact last year; his footy smarts and sharp skills off half back will be a big win for the Dogs. Tom Williams will miss the majority of the year after suffering another shoulder injury but Markovic should be able to provide cover.
Boyd and Cross are the engine room and consistently provide quality ball for outside runners such as Griffin and Cooney. Young guns Wallis and Libertore showed encouraging signs last year and should take the next step this year. Liam Jones looks a likely type up forward and with big Will Minson looking in great shape, they have the makings of a potent forward line. Shaun Higgins has a lot to prove this year and will need to excel to silence the doubters.
In summary, they have enough quality pieces to put themselves into the finals mix, but I don’t think they will quite get there. 2012 outlook – 11 wins.
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Brendan McCartney comes to his first senior coaching job with more quiet (yet knowing) wraps on him than many a coach entering their debut year in the top job. He was a big part of the upswing at Geelong over the past five years and last year was Essendon’s ‘gun for hire’, helping the Bombers jump from 14th to eighth. 2011 presented them with a tougher than average 2011 draw and three close losses (two against 2011 finalists) compounded matters in a season where seemingly everything went wrong and they ran 10th anyway.
Looks nicely poised for a rebound into the eight this season, right? Not so fast. The Bulldogs have a couple of problems. They have nine players with 150+ games already (with Ryan Griffen likely to join the group by May), but only seven with between 20 and 100 matches to their name. That suggests to me that this is a list with less scope for improvement in 2012 than a number of others.
I think McCartney’s time at the helm of an elite team will come – just not this year. 2012 outlook – 10 wins.
Photo by Robert Prezioso/Getty Images AsiaPac
