March 17 Racing Selections
Tips for this weekend cover the March 17 meeting at Randwick (featuring the Group 1 Randwick Guineas) and Bendigo. Last week was the second in a row where track conditions and/ or odds rendered all of my tips ineligible to count for results, costing me three winners (not to mention a few losers!) in the process. One day I promise to again tip something at $6 SP or better on a track where the rating fits the required criteria; maybe even this week?
Final report card for 2011 and revised rules for 2012 tips
Results for March 10 and 11 selections
Tips which were either scratched, outside the prescribed track conditions or too short in price
Scratched – nil
Track outside prescribed range – Brayroan (Warwick Farm track was upgraded to a Dead 5 before the fifth race of the day), Ladys Angel (same issue), World Wide, Hood (another winner… damn)
Odds too short (less than $6 SP) – Speediness, Rain Affair
Tips where the SP was in the $6-$9.50 range (1 unit bets)
Nil
March 10/11 results: No selections
2012 results: 15 selections, 15 units bet, one winner, SP return of $9.00 (POT = -40%), BOB return of $9.50 (POT = -37%)
Tips where the SP was in the $10+ range (0.5 unit bets)
Nil
March 10/11 results: No selections
2012 results: 5 selections, 2.5 units bet, no winners
Overall Results
March 10/11: No selections
2012: 20 selections, 17.5 units bet, one winner, SP return of $9.00 (POT = -49%), BOB return of $9.50 (POT = -46%)
Saturday March 17
Randwick (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)
Race 1 No. 4 Cabernet
With the top two compressing the weights scale I think she gets in really nicely here as a 'black type' calibre mare with only one kilo over the limit. Her last start effort was forgivable on an unsuitable slow track, as was the start prior to that over a short trip and off a five-week break. Her form earlier in the preparation over 1400 metres was very strong and she has a good record at Randwick, with a win and a placing from just the three runs.
Race 4 No. 9 Permit
He has been a revelation since transferring to the Chris Waller stables, picking up two wins and a second from his first three runs in Sydney. Last time he was coming off a six-week break and dropping in distance by 600 metres, yet still motored home from the tail late to finish third to promising stayer Single. The shorter break and step back up to 2000 metres this time should only see him to advantage and the handicapper hasn’t yet caught him – he’s on the 54 kilo limit for this race.
Bendigo (tips based on a track rating range of dead 4 to slow 7)
Race 4 No. 7 American Crew
His overall record isn’t flattering, but last preparation he really started to show some form after transferring to the Leon Corstens stable. A strong first-up win was followed by a respectable run at Group 3 level behind Lone Rock and then a second placing to subsequent Group winner Hi Belle (giving the quality mare two kilos) in the Bairnsdale Cup. He has two wins and two seconds from only four starts at the trip, is gets in 2.5 kilos under the limit after the claim for Katelyn Mallyon and importantly, looks set to lead in a race devoid of much obvious speed.
Race 6 No. 2 Ky’s The Limit
A number of the fancied runners in this race received 3.5 kilos from Hi Belle in the Group 3 Mannerism Stakes and were beaten handily by that mare. This mare was also beaten by Hi Belle in the past six months, but it was at level weights in the Listed Ladies’ Day Vase at Caulfield. Therefore from a weights and measures perspective, she gets into this race quite well with 55.5 kilos. She has very strong fresh form (two wins from four first-up starts) and is a winner of her only race over 1400 metres to date.
Making The Nut is very pleased to have Luxbet on board as a sponsor of the site again in 2012.
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Thanks to Matt King/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo
