AFL 2011 – Three Quarter Time Wrap

With six weeks to go in the home and away season, there are three races on in earnest – the races for the wooden spoon, the final three spots in the top eight and the final two spots in the top four. For a season that looked eminently predictable a few weeks back (to the point where footballers were so bored that they started betting on first goal scorer markets…. what? Too soon?), it has been a welcome change of pace.

As with the quarter time and half time wraps, this column will take the form of a ‘power ranking’ of each club, an assessment of their recent form and some thoughts on the road ahead. As an illustration of why you should never put your thoughts on such matters on the public record, each team will have the previous rankings (pre-season, quarter time, etc.) noted next to their ranking – in some cases this may lead to gloating on my part, in many it will lead to a healthy dose of humble pie.

Teams will be broken up into tiered groupings based on a ‘school grade’, as sometimes the gap between say fifth and sixth place is substantially bigger than the gap between sixth and seventh. Once again, we will start at the bottom and gradually improve the mood as the column goes on.

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F-grades – The ‘Gary Buckenara AFL coaching career’ group

17. Port Adelaide (ranked 14^th pre-season, 17^th at quarter time, 17^th at half time)

17th place on ladder (2-14, 70%)

Last Six – lost to WC by 22, lost to NM by 45, lost to Bris by 11, lost to St K by 56, lost to Melb by 21, bye

They’ve been dubbed ‘the basket case of the AFL’ and it’s hard to fault the logic of that assessment. It’s incredible to think that three years ago they contested the Grand Final. The immediate future doesn’t look a bed of roses for the club either, with the player list not exactly bursting with raw young talent. How many times per day do you think Mark Williams feels relief that his tenure ended last year and he didn’t have to endure this? And should each 2012 Port membership come with a packet of Prozac to take the edge off the pain of a weekend?

 

16. Gold Coast (ranked 15^th pre-season, 16^th at quarter time, 15^th at half time)

16th place on ladder (3-13, 57%)

Last Six – lost to Haw by 71, lost to WB by 22, lost to Freo by 50, lost to Syd by 70, def Rich by 15, lost to Coll by 54

Despite the number of complete drubbings they’ve copped this year, the three wins have provided sufficient silver lining to give the 2011 season a pass mark for the Suns. Moreover, they’ve got two more games they will fancy their chances in (a return match against the Lions and a home match against Adelaide) in their run home – scrambling up to five wins would have to be defined as a successful first season for such a fledgling club. Plus it would all but rule them out of winning the wooden spoon, which for those of us who based a few pre-season selections around the concept that not even the Brisbane Bears won a spoon ‘first-up’ would be a fantastic outcome.

 

15. Brisbane (ranked 16^th pre-season, 15^th at quarter time, 16^th at half time)

15th place on ladder (3-14, 77%)

Last Six – lost to Rich by 31, lost to Freo by 23, def Port by 11, lost to Haw by 42, lost to Geel by 29, lost to NM by 45

Poor old Jonathan Brown – the man has more courage than is safe. You know who he reminds me of? Those TV and movie daredevils who crash spectacularly when attempting a stunt and as they are placed on a stretcher or gurney give a thumbs-up to the crowd. All we were missing durng the match against Geelong at the Gabba was the Lions’ PA system booming out a “hhhheeee’s allllllright, folks!” statement as Brown left the field.

 

 

D-grades – Receiving the ‘full support of the Board’

14. Adelaide (ranked sixth pre-season, tenth at quarter time, 14^th at half time)

14^th place on ladder (4-12, 73%)

Last Six – lost to WB by 30, lost to Geel by 52, def Syd by 7, bye, lost to Ess by 11, lost to St K by 103

Neil Craig and the Crows persist with one another, like a loveless couple where neither partner can bring themselves to end it despite all of their friends being able to see that it’s clearly over. The red flags and thinly veiled platitudes are everywhere. It’s okay. We’re talking more these days. I’m not making him sleep on the couch anymore, though the spark in the bedroom is a long way from returning. We’re thinking about taking a holiday together to see if we can get the fires burning again.

Sorry guys, the rest of the football world can see that the time has come for this union to end.  All it will take is for one of them to finally accept the reality and say “For the large part, it has been a really good run, but we’re headed down different paths these days and I think we should see other people. It’s not you, it’s me.”

 

13. Richmond (ranked 13^th pre-season, 12^th at quarter time, tenth at half time)

13th place on ladder (5-11-1, 83%)

Last Six – def Bris by 31, lost to Melb by 27, lost to Carl by 103, lost to Ess by 39, lost to GC by 15, lost to Geel by 52

In my half time wrap, I suggested that the 4-6-1 Richmond “could peel off eight wins in the second half of the season or eight losses and neither would come as a great shock”. Well, they’re more than halfway to posting the eight losses on the back of a combination of second half flameouts (Melbourne, Essendon, Gold Coast) and complete pastings (Carlton, Geelong).

This is not a new phenomenon for Tigers supporters – their team loves to spend a few weeks at a time playing exciting footy to build up hopes and expectations before delivering a swift kick to the nether regions. If I barracked for Richmond, I’d wear a box (think protective equipment for cricket) to every match in preparation for these swift kicks.

As an aside, I don’t really believe that Damien Hardwick is at ‘he has the full support of the Board’ stage yet, but the Tigers do have a long and storied history of sharpening the knives quickly if results are not forthcoming. If they reach this point of the 2012 season with only five wins, Hardwick’s coaching tenure may be is serious danger of ending.

 

 

C-grades – Does anyone want to play finals? Anyone? Bueller?

(Important side note: It’s hard to believe that after 18 rounds there are now seven teams mired in this mid-table cluster you-know-what for the last three spots in the finals, and that at one point or another more than half of them were all but written off as finals contenders. Yet here we are. You’ve gotta love sports).

12. Western Bulldogs (ranked eleventh pre-season, ninth at quarter time, 13^th at half time)

12th place on ladder (7-10, 94%)

Last Six – def Adel by 30, def GC by 22, def Melb by 64, def Carl by 27, lost to NM by 31, lost to Syd by 39

Run Home – WC, bye, Ess, Port (away), Haw, Freo

Why they can make the eight: If they can get back to their form of the Melbourne and Carlton matches, they can certainly take it up to the travelling Eagles and Dockers, as well as the Bombers.

Why they can’t make the eight: With ten losses already in the bank and four matches against sides above them (including two top-5 sides), they cannot afford a single further slip up.

Predicted finish: They defeat Port and split the other four games to finish 10-12 in 12th spot.

 

11. North Melbourne (ranked twelfth pre-season, 14^th at quarter time, ninth at half time)

Tenth place on ladder (8-9, 101%)

Last Six – def Ess by 21, def Port by 45, lost to St K by 9, lost to Coll by 117, def WB by 31, def Bris by 45

Run Home – Carl, Haw, bye, Freo, St K, Rich

Why they can make the eight: They don’t leave Melbourne for the remainder of the home and away season.

Why they can’t make the eight: The next three weeks is likely to see them remain mired on eight wins with only three rounds left to be played, a spot that may make a finals berth a bridge too far.

Predicted finish: They lose to Carlton and Hawthorn, defeat Richmond and split the Fremantle/ St Kilda games to post two more wins over all and finish 10-12 in 11th spot on the ladder.

 

10. Melbourne (ranked seventh pre-season, 11^th at quarter time, 12^th at half time)

11th place on ladder (7-8-1, 97%)

Last Six – def Freo by 89, def Rich by 27, lost to WB by 64, bye, def Port by 21, lost to Haw by 54

Run Home – Geel, Carl, WC, Rich, GC, Port (away)

Why they can make the eight: If they can pinch one of the next three matches, their run home over the final three weeks opens up substantially.

Why they can’t make the eight: They have eight losses already, haven’t beaten a top-5 side all year and now face three of them in a row, beginning with the Cats this weekend.

Predicted finish: They lose their next three matches convincingly to put themselves out of the finals picture before rushing home with three wins to finish 10-1-11 in tenth spot.

 

9. Essendon (ranked tenth pre-season, sixth at quarter time, 11^that half time)

Ninth place on ladder (8-8-1, 105%)

Last Six – lost to NM by 21, lost to Haw by 65, def Geel by 4, def Rich by 39, def Adel by 11, lost to Carl by 74

Run Home – Coll, Syd, WB, WC (away), Port, bye

Why they can make the eight: There are three quite winnable matches, all played at their best venue (Etihad Stadium), in their run home.

Why they can’t make the eight: Two extremely difficult matches (Collingwood and West Coast away) mean that the other three matches are almost certainly must-win affairs. Their percentage relative to St Kilda and Sydney is now also a problem.

Predicted finish: They defeat Port, lose to both Collingwood and West Coast and split the Sydney/ Western Bulldogs games to finish 10-11-1 in a heartbreaking ninth spot. Should I start stocking up on bottles of scotch now just to be safe?

 

8. Fremantle (ranked ninth pre-season, fourth at quarter time, seventh at half time)

Seventh place on ladder (9-7, 99%)

Last Six – lost to Melb by 89, def Bris by 23, def GC by 50, bye, def Syd by 11, lost to WC by 1

Run Home – Haw, St K (away), Carl, NM (away), Coll, WB (away)

Why they can make the eight: They have nine wins on the board already, and will only improve as they continue to slowly get players back from injury.

Why they can’t make the eight: Three away trips plus three home games against top-5 sides means there are no ‘gimme’ matches on the schedule for the Dockers.

Predicted finish: Lose to St Kilda and Collingwood and split the remaining four matches to finish at 11-11 and claim eighth spot on the ladder.

 

7. St Kilda (ranked third pre-season, 13^th at quarter time, eighth at half time)

Eighth place on ladder (8-7-1, 108%)

Last Six – lost to Geel by 28, bye, def NM by 9, def Port by 56, def WC by 21, def Adel by 103

Run Home – GC (away), Freo, Coll, Syd (away), NM, Carl

Why they can make the eight: They’re likely to be 9-7-1 after this weekend, with one very tough game and four games where they’ll be somewhere between slight favourites and slight underdogs to go.

Why they can’t make the eight: There are no ‘safe’ wins sitting in the last five weeks of their draw.

Predicted finish: They defeat the Gold Coast, lose to Collingwood and split the other four games to finish 11-10-1 in seventh spot. 

 

6. Sydney (ranked fourth pre-season, seventh at quarter time, fifth at half time)

Sixth place on ladder (9-7-1, 110%)

Last Six – lost to Carl by 34, lost to Coll by 6, lost to Adel by 7, def GC by 70, lost to Freo by 11, def WB by 39

Run Home – bye, Ess (away), Rich (away), St K, Geel (away), Bris

Why they can make the eight: They have a 0-5 record against Collingwood, Geelong, Carlton and Hawthorn, but a 9-2-1 record against everyone else.

Why they can’t make the eight: Three away games and a home clash with St Kilda (a team with whom they have a history of tight tussles) does not an easy finals path make.

Predicted finish: Defeat Richmond and Brisbane, lose to Geelong and split the Essendon and St Kilda matches for three more victories to finish 12-9-1 in sixth spot.

 

 

B-grades – Fighting for two bites at the September cherry

5. Carlton (ranked eighth pre-season, fifth at quarter time, third at half time)

Fourth place on ladder (11-5-1, 133%)

Last Six – def Syd by 34, lost to WC by 36, def Rich by 103, lost to WB by 27, lost to Coll by 19, def Ess by 74

Despite what you may think Blues fans, this is not a spite pick after what you did to my team on Saturday night. You have a much tougher run home than the Eagles (including a road trip to play Freo in Round 21, the Hawks in Round 22 and the Saints possibly needing a win to make the eight in Round 24). They beat you convincingly at Etihad, and your injury list is worse than theirs.

But perhaps the kicker – the Eagles haven’t recently dropped a game in which they were four goal favourites where Team Making The Nut happily stepped in to back you giving away the start against a seemingly inferior opponent. The loss to the Bulldogs cost me money and potentially you a coveted top-4 spot and double chance in the finals. THAT is why I’ve spite-picked you in the number five spot.

 

4. West Coast (ranked 17^th pre-season, eighth at quarter time, sixth at half time)

Fifth place on ladder (11-5, 120%)

Last Six – def Port by 22, def Carl by 36, bye, def Geel by 8, lost to St K by 21, def Freo by 1

Since Round 7, the Eagles’ only two losses have come to Collingwood and St Kilda, both away from home. They’ve also picked up two derby victories and wins against Carlton (away from home) and Geelong in that time. Take a bow West Coast – you win the ‘most improved’ trophy for 2011 by so far it doesn’t warrant mentioning. I’ll bet the idiot who tipped you to run last and told your fans that he hopes their WAFL team brings them some happiness feels pretty dumb right now. In a related story, do you know how hard it is to type power rankings columns whilst shuffling your feet and sheepishly staring down at them?

 

3. Hawthorn (ranked second pre-season, third at quarter time, fourth at half time)

Third place on ladder (12-4, 134%)

Last Six – def GC by 71, def Ess by 65, lost to Coll by 41, def Bris by 42, bye, def Melb by 54

The Hawks continue to do a terrific job of coping with adversity and an ever burgeoning injury list, pumping out one win after another. Since their opening round loss to Adelaide (in retrospect, one of the upsets of the season), they have not lost to anyone other than Geelong or Collingwood.

It’s a crying shame that they won’t go into September with a full (or even near full) playing staff on board, as a full strength Hawks outfit offered the prospect of really serving it up to the Cats and Magpies in a sudden death final at some point. They may do so anyway in spite of their injuries, but the prospects of this have been diminished significantly. Alas.

 

A-grade – The Top Gun ‘best of the best’ group

2.Geelong (ranked fifth pre-season, second at quarter time, second at half time)

Second place on ladder (15-2, 138%)

Last Six – def St K by 28, def Adel by 52, lost to Ess by 4, lost to WC by 8, def Bris by 29, def Rich by 52

Let’s put their recent ‘mini slump’ into some perspective – they are still a fantastic 15-2 with five matches to go and will be heavily their next three matches before the bye. Their Round 23 match against the Swans is at Skilled Stadium, where they haven’t been defeated since Moses was called in as a consultant by AFL coaches far and wide for tactics to combat defensive flooding.

In the likely event that 19-2 Geelong take on 20-1 Collingwood in the final round of the regular season with the top two spots sewn up, how many players are collectively rested? 8? 12? 20? With motivation for either side contained to maybe gaining some mental ascendancy for the finals series, this is not a match I will be wagering on.

 

1. Collingwood (ranked first pre-season, first at quarter time, first at half time)

First place on ladder (15-1, 175%)

Last Six – bye, def Syd by 6, def Haw by 41, def NM by 117, def Carl by 19, def GC by 54

The Magpies continue to dominate the AFL landscape, acting as the competition yardstick and summarily dismissing sides of inferior quality week after week. How many other sides in history have won a match by nine goals and seen their percentage dip fractionally this late in a season? While I have nothing but respect and admiration for the manner in which they play their footy, the constant winning does get tiresome and tedious for the rest of us.

Do you know who they remind me of? Sebastian Vettel – the reigning Formula One World Champion who is already showing his 2011 competitors a clean pair of heels (or exhausts, as the case may be). Congratulations Collingwood, you are the Sebastian Vettel of the AFL – I have minimal interest (individual match wagers aside) in hearing from you until the pivotal finals matches roll around.

 

Thanks to Mark Nolan/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo