ANZ Championship 2013 – Round 1 Tips
It’s that time of year…… if you listen very carefully as this weekend approaches, you may hear Kiwi rapper Scribe rhetorically asking, “How many sites you know roll like this? How many sites you know flow like this? Not many, if any….” And you know what that means – we have Ben Carbonaro back for a weekly netball gambling column (specifically, one based around the ANZ Championships) for 2013.
Before we delve into the opening weekend of matches, it may be worth a quick refresher course on what this column sets out to achieve, and more broadly how betting on the netball operates.
Once again this year, for the purposes of this weekly column, we will only recommend a bet where Ben’s opinion differs from that of bookmakers by at least 3.5 goals.
That’s a purely subjective point to draw the line, albeit informed by some distributional analysis that discussed in the 2011 column link above. You could choose to bet any game where the opinions differ by at least 2.5 goals, or at least 5.5 goals, or whatever takes your fancy. However, recommended bets (and results of these bets) for this column will be based on games where the relevant opinions differ by at least 3.5 goals.
As a consequence, there will be some games each week where the opinions of Ben and the bookmakers are too close to each other and no bet is recommended. This is a good thing. As highlighted in the 2011 introductory piece, you don’t want to blindly hand over the edge in the odds to the bookmaker. Pick your battles carefully.
That’s more than enough of my ramblings for one week – time to hand it over to Ben for the inside word on the opening round of the 2013 ANZ Championships:
Round One Tips (please note: all times are the local time for the home side)
Sunday March 24, 11:10 AM Queensland Firebirds v Southern Steel
Firebirds: 7-6 in 2012 regular season (sixth on ladder), 5-2 home
Steel: 2-11 in 2012 regular season (ninth on ladder), 1-5 away
Bookmakers’ line: TBC
Ben says: Queensland's premiership defence couldn't get any worse, as the much maligned premiership hangover came into play and they missed the finals after not dropping a game two years ago. With Australian Diamondsdefender Laura Geitz leading an extremely young group, returning to finals netball could be out of the question, but mixing things up with younger players should eliminate a level of predictability that was a feature of their games last year. The addition of giant Jamaican goal shooter Jhaniele Fowler and returning mid-courter Wendy Frew after giving birth to son Archive adds star quality to a Steel looking for greater consistency. Firebirds by 12
Recommended bet: TBC
Sunday March 24, 1:50 PM Adelaide Thunderbirds v Central Pulse
Thunderbirds: 9-4 in 2012 regular season (fourth on ladder), 5-1 home
Pulse: 5-8 in 2012 regular season (seventh on ladder), 2-5 away
Bookmakers’ line: TBC
Ben says: Adelaide finished just below eventual premiers Magic in fourth and lost a heart-stopping semi-final by a solitary goal, but many have tipped them to a premiership dark horse among the Australian based teams. Thunderbirds captain Natalie von Bertouch has battled a finger injury of late, but her leadership from centre coupled with strength in other areas of the court is not to be sneezed at. The Pulse were one of the competition's most improved teams last season and the improvement is set to continue, with coach Robyn Broughton confident that a finals appearance isn't out of the question. Thunderbirds by 10
Recommended bet: TBC
Sunday March 24, 7:20 PM Canterbury Tactix v Waikato/BOP Magic
Tactix: 2-11 in 2012 regular season (tenth on ladder), 1-5 home
Magic: 9-4 in 2012 regular season (third on ladder), 3-3 away
Bookmakers’ line: TBC
Ben says: The Tactix have lost a chunk of experienced with mid-courter Maree Bowden and defender Anna Galvan both now in retirement, but an injection of talented young players gives their long suffering but passionate supporters some hope. Magic launched a super turnaround after losing the first four games of last year to go on and take the ANZ Championship trophy back to New Zealand for the first time. However, the premiership hangover theory has come into play every season so the star studded Magic team will be working hard to avoid missing the finals altogether. Magic by 8
Recommended bet: TBC
Monday March 25, 7:40 PM Northern Mystics v Melbourne Vixens
Mystics: 10-3 in 2012 regular season (second on ladder), 5-2 home
Vixens: 10-3 in 2012 regular season (first on ladder), 6-1 away
Bookmakers’ line: TBC
Ben says: The Mystics finished last year's home and away campaign with an equal best record behind grand finalist Melbourne Vixens, but a six goal semi-final loss to them put a stop to their premiership aspirations. This season could be a bit different, with some key players missing including now retired midcourter Temepara Bailey (nee George), defender Anna Harrison is pregnant and Charlotte Kight is out with an Achilles injury. Australian defender Julie Corletto is Northern's import this season and her addition should help ease the absence of Harrison and Kight, but facing a Vixens team keen on redemption led by Bianca Chatfield will be tough. Vixens by 4
Recommended bet: TBC
Monday March 25, 7:40 PM NSW Swifts v West Coast Fever
Swifts: 8-5 in 2012 regular season (fifth on ladder), 6-1 home
Fever: 3-10 in 2012 regular season (eighth on ladder), 1-6 away
Bookmakers’ line: TBC, though the New Zealand TAB are offering $2.40 odds about the Fever to win the match outright
Ben says: Swiftsfinished just missed the finals last year, but in the words of co-captain Mo'onia Gerrard it wouldn't acceptable for that to happen again, with last year's core group returning and the new faces all having spent time as replacement players at different stages last year. A slow start to the season by Swifts cost them last year, but a more versatile list coupled with experienced should help them avoid missing finals again. The Fever only won three games last year, but showed more continued improvement under former Diamonds coach Norma Plummer to suggest that they are more than just a talent laden team with potential. Fever by 2
Recommended bet: TBC, but based on the NZ TAB odds, expect the Fever to be a recommended bet as underdogs when lines are released.
Thanks to Phil Walter/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo
Good to have you back Ben
1 unit on Fever +1.5 at $1.90 (Centrebet)