ANZ Championship – Rd 10 Tips
The final ‘super round’ takes place in Round Ten of the ANZ Championship, with the Vixens, Swifts, Magic and Tactix drawing double-header duties this time around. To keep the tips of Ms Netball rolling along in the successful manner to which my profit/ loss sheet has become accustomed, only the tips for the two Thursday night matches will be presented today, with tips for all subsequent games to be provided in the comments section once the implications of these two games have been taken into consideration.
Results of Ms Netball tips to date
Head to head winners: 34 selections, 25 winners (74% strike rate)
Recommended bets: 12 selections, eight winners, return of $15.20, Profit on Turnover (POT) = 27%
To recap, for the purposes of this weekly column, we will only recommend a bet where the opinion of bookmakers and the opinion of Ms Netball differ by at least 3.5 goals.
Time to hand it over to Ms Netball for her views on Round Ten of the ANZ Championship:
Round Ten Tips (please note: all times are the local time for the home side)
Thursday April 14, 7:40 PM Queensland Firebirds v Melbourne Vixens
Firebirds: 10-0 (first on ladder), 4-0 at home
Vixens: 6-3 (third on ladder), 2-2 away
Bookmakers’ line*: TBC
Ms Netball says: The Firebirds are generally expected to win this one, with both teams suffering the loss of their captains the result is harder to pick. Don’t underestimate the impact Lauren Nourse has had for the Firebirds. Her delivery into Aiken has been one of the team’s great strengths. Nourse has had a massive 119 goal assists this season and her presence will be sorely missed. Of course the Vixens are also missing their star play maker Sharelle McMahon but last week Tegan Caldwell played a blinder and if she backs up this week it will be very close. Both teams have quality defence ends, for me the difference will be Aiken, if the Firebirds can continue their confident feeding into her they should take the points – but remember that Chatfield and Mentor will be doing all they can to prevent this and could cause an upset. Firebirds by 2.
Recommended bet: None – with the loss of both captains to injury and the Firebirds all but locked into the top spot on the ladder, this is not a confident tip.
Thursday April 14, 7:40 PM Waikato/BOP Magic v Canterbury Tactix
Magic: 6-3 (fifth on ladder), 2-2 at home
Tactix: 1-8 (tenth on ladder), 0-4 away
Bookmakers’ line*: TBC
Ms Netball says: When these teams last played the Tactix forced the Magic into extra time before the Magic closed it out with a seven-goal win. The Tactix have had an awful season and on top of this have now lost Kasey Evering (who was excellent against Van Dyk in their last match) as well as mid courter Phillipa Finch. Currently out of the top four, a win for the Magic will see them back into second on the ladder so they will be very determined and they will also be looking for percentage points which could be vital in deciding the top 4. Magic by 16.
Recommended bet:TBC – back the Magic if -12.5 or less, back the Tactix if +19.5 or more.
Saturday April 16, 1:50 PM Adelaide Thunderbirds v NSW Swifts
Thunderbirds: 4-6 (seventh on ladder), 2-2 at home
Swifts: 6-3 (fourth on ladder), 3-1 away
Bookmakers’ line*: TBC
Sunday April 17, 12:20 PM West Coast Fever v Melbourne Vixens
Fever: 2-8 (ninth on ladder), 1-5 at home
Vixens: 6-3 (fourth on ladder), 2-2 away
Bookmakers’ line*: TBC
Sunday April 17, 6:20 PM Southern Steel v Waikato/BOP Magic
Steel: 4-6 (sixth on ladder), 3-0 at home
Magic: 6-3 (fifth on ladder), 4-1 away
Bookmakers’ line*: TBC
Monday April 18, 7:40 PM Canterbury Tactix v Central Pulse
Tactix: 1-8 (tenth on ladder), 1-4 at home
Pulse: 2-8 (eighth on ladder), 0-3 away
Bookmakers’ line*:TBC
Monday April 18, 7:40 PM NSW Swifts v Northern Mystics
Swifts: 6-3 (third on ladder), 3-2 at home
Mystics: 7-3 (second on ladder), 4-1 away
Bookmakers’ line*:TBC
Thanks to Phil Walter/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo
* Once again, bookmakers had not yet published lines for these games at the time of publication of this article. We will endeavour to add these lines (and note any consequential recommended bets) as they become available via the comments section each week.
Hi,
You can get Magic -11.5 at just about all of the main bookies (Centrebet, Sportsbet, Sportingbet, Tattsbet etc)
Thanks for that – Nick was just in touch to inform me of the same thing.
Magic -11.5 is a recommended bet tonight (noting that the game starts at 7:40 NZ time, or 5:40 AEST).
Adelaide Thunderbirds v NSW Swifts
The last time these teams played was in the first round of the season and the Swifts had a comprehensive 20 goal win. Expect a closer match this time – the young Thunderbirds defence have improved greatly while in attack Beaton is delivering great ball into Borrego. This week however Beaton comes up against Gerrard and I think the Swifts defence will make things difficult for the Thunderbirds. At the other end Cox and Pratley have experience over their opponents and I expect the Swifts to come out on top. Swifts by 10 (Recommended bet – Swifts if -6.5 or less, Thunderbirds if +13.5 or more).
West Coast Fever v Melbourne Vixens
In their last match up Vixens gave the Fever a shellacking and the 31 goal margin will have embarrassed the Fever. Since then they have played a lot better and were only narrowly beaten by top four teams the Magic and the Mystics. On the other hand the Vixens did not play well against the Firebirds and seem to have lost connection bring the ball down court and into the shooters. Following that big loss and McMahon's injury and I suspect they have lost a bit of confidence, so for the Fever at home this is the perfect opportunity to show what they are capable of. Last week I picked the Fever by one goal and they lost by two, but it was a match they really should have won and they looked devastated afterwards. Whether that loss can inspire them this week I don’t know, as I mentioned last round their ability to win the close ones is questionable. With this one, my guts are telling me the Fever but my brain is telling me Vixens, so I am going with the brain and picking the Vixens but I would not recommend it as a bet. Vixens by 3 – no confidence.
Southern Steel v Waikato/BOP Magic
Again with this one I want to go with the underdog. The Steel are the only NZ team to have beaten the Magic twice and both times in Invercargill. Perhaps the Magic’s game against the Tactix on Thursday was an anomaly but they did not play well. The Steel are a better team than their ladder position would suggest, they will be disappointed with their season and looking to restore some pride. The Magic have a lot to lose and a loss could jeopardise their top four position, however Thursday night's game has left me with some concerns over their game, there seemed to be a lack of team work. With this one I am going to go with my gut and picking the Steel, but as I'm feeling a bit conflicted again this is not a recommended bet. Steel by 2 – no confidence.
Canterbury Tactix v Central Pulse
Another one for me to agonize over – I am picking the Tactix but this is purely based on statistics because I can’t really separate these two teams. Tactix have the better Goal percentage, and slightly less penalties and turnovers. The only problem with this is that fatigue will be a factor for the Tactix this being their second game in five days, however they will be playing this one at home and I think their match against the Magic a few days ago will have given them a lift which should see them edge out the Pulse in a close match. Tactix by 2 (Recommended bet – you'll need to be offered some headstart either way – bet the Tactix if +1.5 or more, Pulse if +5.5 or more).
Ms Netabll is tipping the Swifts tonight (based on her both her own disposition towards the Swifts and the appalling record of NZ teams in Aust) but with no confidence, as she tells me that they look like a tired outfit. So there will be no recommended bet tonight.