ANZ Championships – Rd 14 Tips

One week to go before the finals picture is completed – the Vixens and Mystics have the inside running for top two positions and a coveted double chance, the Magic and Thunderbirds control their own destiny, while the Swifts and Firebirds need to win and have results elsewhere go their way to see the postseason. With an intriguing weekend ahead, Three Feet Radio’s own Ben Carbonaro gives us his thoughts on Round 14.

Results for Round 13 tips

Round 13:  4 units bet, 1 winning unit, return of 1.87 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = -53%

2012 total:  29.5 units bet, 19.5 winning units, return of 36.60 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = +24%

Our 2011 introductory discussion of how netball line betting works and what to expect from this column

For the purposes of this weekly column, we will only recommend a bet where Ben’s opinion differs from that of bookmakers by at least 3.5 goals.

Here are Ben’s thoughts on Round 14 of the 2012 ANZ Championships:

 

Round 14 Tips (please note: all times are the local time for the home side)

 

Saturday June 30, 4:20 PM Southern Steel v Melbourne Vixens

Steel:  2-10 (ninth on ladder), 1-5 at home

Vixens:  9-3 (first on ladder), 5-1 away

Bookmakers’ line:  TBC

Ben says:  If the Vixens win this game, they will take out this year's ANZ Championship minor premiership and guarantee themselves a home semi final, which Melbourne's sporting public would no doubt pack out. A much better start was a feature of their round 13 win over the Central Pulse and if they can start well again then combine it once again with a strong defensive performance they will beat a Steel team that has upset some top teams this year. Vixens by 12

Recommended bet:  TBC

 

Sunday July 1, 11:40 AM Adelaide Thunderbirds v Canterbury Tactix

Thunderbirds:  8-4 (fourth on ladder), 4-1 at home

Tactix:  2-10 (tenth on ladder), 1-5 away

Bookmakers’ line:  TBC

Ben says:  There are a number of different scenarios that could influence Adelaide's appearance in the finals and coming up against a struggling Tactix team will mean that worrying about missing the finals wouldn't be too much of a worry. While the Thunderbirds went down to the Magic last weekend, the Tactix team's inability to not have an impact in games after quarter time will play out here. So I'm tipping a one sided contest with Thunderbirds by 18

Recommended bet:  TBC

 

Sunday July 1, 12:20 PM West Coast Fever v Central Pulse

Fever:  2-10 (eighth on ladder), 1-4 at home

Pulse:  5-7 (seventh on ladder), 2-4away

Bookmakers’ line:  TBC

Ben says: Both the Fever and Pulse have had similar seasons this year. They have been super competitive and have also pull off some surprise wins against more fancied opposition which has been a reflection of just how open the ANZ Championship has been in 2012. Fever and Pulse are evenly matched on paper, but the curse of New Zealand based teams struggling to win in Australia will prevail in this game. Fever by 5

Recommended bet:  TBC

 

Sunday July 1, 7:20 PM Northern Mystics v NSW Swifts

Mystics:  9-3 (second on ladder), 4-2 at home

Swifts:  8-4 (fifth on ladder), 2-3away

Bookmakers’ line:  TBC

Ben says: Northern have been locked in the battle with the Magic to see who is the best New Zealand based team and with just one round to go, only ladder percentage separates them. The Swifts have been going under the radar for much of the season and finally played a consistent four quarters of netball against the Steel but a trip to Auckland will be tough. Mystics by 4

Recommended bet:  TBC

 

Monday July 2, 7:40 PM Waikato/ BOP Magic v Queensland Firebirds

Magic:  8-4 (third on ladder), 5-1 at home

Firebirds:  7-5 (sixth on ladder), 2-3 away

Bookmakers’ line:  TBC

Ben says:  The Magic had a dominant 17-goal win over Adelaide Thunderbirds and the form in that game showed that they are a genuine premiership contender along with fellow Kiwi based team Northern Mystics. Queensland returned to form after the bye against the West Coast Fever and it was certainly reminiscent of the form they showed as they won last year's premiership. A strong home crowd in Hamilton will get the Magic over the line in Hamilton on Monday. Magic by 6

Recommended bet:  TBC

 

Thanks to Phil Walter/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo