ANZ Championships – Round 10 Tips

A huge week looms in the ANZ Championships, with four of the top five teams facing off across two matches (Firebirds-Swifts and Vixens-Thunderbirds) that are sure to have ramifications for the finals picture. Meanwhile, Three Feet Radio’s own Ben Carbonaro won his sole recommended bet last week to progress to 15-4 against the spread in 2012. Between Ben this year and Ms Netball last season, Making The Nut’s netball gurus are a combined 25-9 against the spread – outstanding stuff. Ben returns this week to give his thoughts on Round 10.

Results for Round 9 tips

Round 9: 1 unit bet, 1 winner, return of 1.90 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = +90%

2012 total:  19 units bet, 15 winners, return of 28.15 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = +48%

Our 2011 introductory discussion of how netball line betting works and what to expect from this column

Once again this year, for the purposes of this weekly column, we will only recommend a bet where Ben’s opinion differs from that of bookmakers by at least 3.5 goals.

Here are Ben’s thoughts on Round 10 of the 2012 ANZ Championships:

 

Round 10 Tips (please note: all times are the local time for the home side)

 

Sunday June 3, 12:10 PM Queensland Firebirds v NSW Swifts

Firebirds:  5-4 (fifth on ladder), 3-2 at home

Swifts:  6-2 (fourth on ladder), 1-2 away

Bookmakers’ line:  TBC

Ben says:  The Swifts have won six straight games and this would be a surprise to many, after numerous preseason predictions that they would fail to give the top four a shake this season. New coach Lisa Beehag has them just doing enough to win games despite some inconsistencies such as an inability to build leads and retain them. The Swifts continuing to make a charge towards the finals would be great for the competition, reflecting just how close this year's ANZ Championship is. The story is much the same with Queensland, who have so far done their best to debunk the "premiership hangover" theory with three consecutive wins of their own after an indifferent start to this season. Swifts by 3

Recommended bet:   TBC

 

Sunday June 3, 2:20 PM Melbourne Vixens v Adelaide Thunderbirds

Vixens:  6-3 (third on ladder), 2-2 at home

Thunderbirds:  6-2 (second on ladder), 3-1 away

Bookmakers’ line:   TBC

Ben says:  The Vixens have lost their past three games after taking all before them with six straight wins to start this season. It gets even tougher when they face an Adelaide Thunderbirds team that has been quietly going about their business and are really firming as a genuine premiership threat. Melbourne will be looking to put in a performance that features greater consistency, increased levels of concentration and an ability to build a lead after scoring a few goals. I think they can bounce back at home. Vixens by 5

Recommended bet:    TBC

 

Sunday June 3, 7:20 PM Canterbury Tactix v Central Pulse

Tactix:  1-8 (tenth on ladder), 1-3 at home

Pulse:  4-5 (seventh on ladder), 1-3 away

Bookmakers’ line:    TBC

Ben says:  Central made it two wins in a row with an impressive eight-goal win over the Steel last round and continue to prove what happens when you get an experienced coach (Robyn Broughton) and another Silver Fern (Joline Henry) on board; put simply, it makes you a significantly more competitive team. The Pulse are at least a five-goal better team this season and realistically could win six games for the season (double their 2011 tally) and although they will not make the finals this year, they have proven that they are no longer the competition's whipping boys. That title has been handed to the Tactix, who have started a lot of games well but have faded out by quarter time and it will be the same this week – they will be obliterated. Pulse by 15

Recommended bet:   TBC

 

Monday June 4, 7:40 PM Waikato/ BOP Magic v Southern Steel  

Magic:  4-4 (sixth on ladder), 2-1 at home

Steel:  2-6 (eighth on ladder), 1-2 away

Bookmakers’ line:   TBC

Ben says:  The Magic are refreshed coming off a bye last week and no doubt would have used the break to assess where they sit, after an inconsistent start to the season put them in a position where they could struggle to play finals netball. With four consecutive wins prior to the bye, they have started to recover the form that saw them being rated as New Zealand's best hope of winning an ANZ Championship title for a number of years (prior to the Mystics grabbing that tag and running with it in 2011). Southern have pulled off some surprise wins and have come close against some of the top teams, but they will not be able to match the strong Magic line-up. Magic by 10

Recommended bet:   TBC

 

Bye: West Coast Fever, Northern Mystics

 

Thanks to Phil Walter/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo