ANZ Championships – Round 13 Tips
The bye weeks have come and gone and we’re into the final sprint towards the ANZ Championship finals series. Six teams are still vying for positions in the top four, although the sixth-placed Firebirds could be out of the running after this weekend if the cards fall the wrong way. Meanwhile, Three Feet Radio’s own Ben Carbonaro has a 1-1 split across his recommended bets last week, thus maintaining a very healthy net profit on the season to date – he’s back this week with his thoughts on Round 13.
Results for Round 12 tips
Round 12: 2 units bet, 1 winning unit, return of 1.87 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = -6%
2012 total: 25.5 units bet, 18.5 winning units, return of 34.73 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = +36%
For the purposes of this weekly column, we will only recommend a bet where Ben’s opinion differs from that of bookmakers by at least 3.5 goals.
Here areBen’s thoughts onRound 13 of the 2012 ANZ Championships:
Round 13 Tips (please note: all times are the local time for the home side)
Saturday June 23, 4:20 PM Waikato/ BOP Magic v Adelaide Thunderbirds
Magic: 7-4 (fourth on ladder), 4-1 at home
Thunderbirds: 8-3 (first on ladder), 4-2 away
Bookmakers’ line: Magic -0.0 to -1.5
Ben says: This is almost a game between the Thunderbirds and New Zealand, because if Adelaide win they will virtually end the Magic's finals aspirations unless something amazing happens. Adelaide's demolition of the NSW Swifts last week suggests they have what it takes to be a real premiership contender against a Magic team that has been in a constant battle with Northern Mystics to decide who is the best Kiwi based ANZ Championship team. Thunderbirds by 3
Recommended bet: 1 unit on Thunderbirds +1.5 at $1.80 (TAB Sportsbet)
Sunday June 24, 12:10 PM NSW Swifts v Southern Steel
Swifts: 7-4 (fifth on ladder), 5-1 at home
Steel: 2-9 (ninth on ladder), 1-4 away
Bookmakers’ line: Swifts -11.5
Ben says: Last week's 27-goal loss to the Adelaide Thunderbirds last week wasn't an indication of just how good a side the Swifts are. The Swifts have been gone under the radar for much of this season while other teams have grabbed the media's attention and coach Lisa Beehag has no doubt appreciated this as it's given her an opportunity to work with her team to improve on things week to week. The Steel are capable of pulling off some pretty big upsets against top teams, but once again another New Zealand based team will struggle to win in Australia.Swifts by 8
Recommended bet: 1 unit on Steel +11.5 at $1.90 (Sportsbet)
Sunday June 24, 2:20 PM Queensland Firebirds v West Coast Fever
Firebirds: 6-5 (sixth on ladder), 4-2 at home
Fever: 2-9 (eighth on ladder), 1-5 away
Bookmakers’ line: Firebirds -7.5 to -8.5
Ben says: Queensland are back on court after a week off and captain Lauren Nourse has declared that the final two regular season games are mini finals for her team. They sit just outside the final four and need to put up a good performance against a Fever team that has had two one-goal nail biting losses in three weeks. Firebirds by 5
Recommended bet: 1 unit on Fever +8.5 at $1.90 (Sportsbet)
Sunday June 24, 7:20 PM Canterbury Tactix v Northern Mystics
Tactix: 2-9 (tenth on ladder), 1-4 at home
Mystics: 8-3 (third on ladder), 4-1 away
Bookmakers’ line: Mystics -6.5 to -7.5
Ben says: Northern have held the tag of New Zealand's best ANZ Championship team for much of this season with the Magic hot on their tail. The Tactix surprised many with a one-goal win over the Steel last week but will struggle to contain the class in all areas of the court that the Mystics hold. Mystics by 10
Recommended bet: 1 unit on Mystics -6.5 at $1.87 (TAB Sportsbet)
Monday June 25, 7:40 PM Central Pulse v Melbourne Vixens
Pulse: 5-6 (seventh on ladder), 3-2 at home
Vixens: 8-3 (second on ladder), 4-1 away
Bookmakers’ line: Vixens -3.5 to -4.0
Ben says: The Central Pulse have suffered a similar fate to the Southern Steel, whereby they have been super competitive against virtually every team, but they haven't been able to string together wins consistently. Despite this, they have still won more games than in any of the first five ANZ Championship seasons. Melbourne were pushed by the West Coast Fever but rebounded with a strong second half and being consistent across each quarter is something they need to address before the finals series starts – if they can so that on Monday night against the Pulse, they will remain in serious premiership contention. Vixens by 6
Recommended bet: Nil
Thanks to Phil Walter/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo
