ANZ Championships – Round 7 Tips

Last week’s outcomes took on a more familiar look, with the Firebirds and Magic both recording convincing victories to move within striking distance of the top four. The undefeated Vixens continue to lead the way though, and with four of their away games already done and dusted, they will take some catching for the minor premiership. Meanwhile last week was the first occasion this season where the tips of Three Feet Radio’s own Ben Carbonaro didn’t lead to any recommended bets. A mere statistical coincidence, or are the bookies adjusting lines to more closely match his tips? His thoughts on Round 7 may answer this and other related questions.

 

Results for Round 6 Tips

Round 6: Nil

2012 total:  14 units bet, 11 winners, return of 20.55 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = +47%

Our 2011 introductory discussion of how netball line betting works and what to expect from this column

Once again this year, for the purposes of this weekly column, we will only recommend a bet where Ben’s opinion differs from that of bookmakers by at least 3.5 goals.

Here are Ben’s thoughts on Round 7 of the 2012 ANZ Championships:

 

Round 7 Tips (please note: all times are the local time for the home side)

 

Sunday May 13, 11:40 AM Adelaide Thunderbirds v West Coast Fever

Thunderbirds:  5-1 (second on ladder), 2-1 at home

Fever:  2-4 (eighth on ladder), 1-2 away

Bookmakers’ line:  TBC

Ben says:  Adelaide had a 10 goal win on Monday night, but coach Jane Woodlands-Thompson was critical of her team's inability to create a lead and not let their opposition back into the game, so they will be looking to do so against a talented but inexperienced Fever team. The Fever played their third game in New Zealand in as many weeks, but went down to an a improved Magic team that are starting to put some competitive netball on court that reflects their team composted of young stars. Thunderbirds by 12

Recommended bet:   TBC

 

Sunday May 13, 2:20 PM NSW Swifts v Melbourne Vixens

Swifts:  3-2 (fourth on ladder), 3-0 at home

Vixens:  6-0 (first on ladder), 4-0 away

Bookmakers’ line:  TBC

Ben says:  A trip across the Tasman to Christchurch posed no problems for the Vixens as they easily accounted for the Tactix and without captain Bianca Chatfield, it gave several players an opportunity to get some court time after a defensive line reshuffle. English international Geva Mentor is currently in a purple patch of form at goal keeper for the Vixens and the Swifts will not have an easy time driving the ball quickly into attack. The Swifts just got over the line against the Pulse, but have a task on their hands to put in a consistent four quarter performance against the competition's only undefeated team. Vixens by 10

Recommended bet:   TBC

 

Sunday May 13, 7:20 PM Southern Steel v Northern Mystics  

Steel:  2-3 (seventh on ladder), 1-1 at home

Mystics:  4-2 (third on ladder), 2-1 away

Bookmakers’ line:   TBC

Ben says:  The Steel came away from their trip to Australia with a loss in Adelaide on Monday night and while they were competitive at different stages, facing the highest ranked New Zealand based team in the Mystics will be a tough ask. Mystics by 6

Recommended bet:    TBC

 

Monday May 14, 7:20 PM Central Pulse v Waikato/BOP Magic

Pulse:  2-4 (ninth on ladder), 2-1 at home

Magic:  2-4 (sixth on ladder), 0-3 away

Bookmakers’ line:    TBC

Ben says:  The Pulse almost caused a major upset against the Swifts on Sunday and have shown some serious promise so far this season, especially with their two wins in rounds 2/4 but have a big task on their hands against a Magic team that is starting to finally show why it has been rated as one of the better New Zealand based teams.  Magic by 8

Recommended bet:   TBC

 

Monday May 14, 7:40 PM Queensland Firebirds v Canterbury Tactix

Firebirds:  2-4 (fifth on ladder), 2-2 at home

Tactix:  1-5 (tenth on ladder), 0-3 away

Bookmakers’ line:   TBC

Ben says:  Queensland got their season back on track with a promising 13-goal win over the Mystics in the Grand Final rematch, with Jamaican shooting machine Romelda Aiken shooting 40 goals. The Tactix were competitive early at home against the Vixens, but struggled after quarter time and it will be same in Brisbane on Monday night. Firebirds by 20

Recommended bet:   TBC

 

Thanks to Phil Walter/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo