April 28 Racing Selections

Tips for this weekend cover the April 28 meetings at Randwick (featuring the Group 1 Sydney Cup, Group 1 All-Aged Stakes and Group 1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes), Eagle Farm (featuring the Group 2 Victory Stakes) and Morphettville (featuring Black Caviar in the Group 1 Sportingbet Classic).

As change is often a good thing when trying to break a poor run of form (seriously, only two winners for the year after almost four months????), I’m going for a ‘gear change’ of sorts here – paragraph previews out, bullet points in. Hey, it’s either that or the reverse jinx, and I’m trying to save that one for an incredibly rainy day…

 

Final report card for 2011 and revised rules for 2012 tips

Results for April 21 selections

Tips which were either scratched, outside the prescribed track conditions or too short in price

Scratched – Fibrillation

Track outside prescribed range – Shoot Out, Nobby Snip (I’m still amazed that Randwick was upgraded to a dead 5 rating by midway through the race meeting – kudos to the track management team)

Odds too short (less than $6 SP) – Triple Honour

Tips where the SP was in the $6-$9.50 range (1 unit bets)

Nil

April 21 results:   No selections

2012 results:  26 selections, 26 units bet, 1 winner, SP return of $9.00 (POT = -65%), BOB return of $9.50 (POT = -63%)

Tips where the SP was in the $10+ range (0.5 unit bets)

Rocking Force ($11.00 SP) – unplaced

April 21 results:  1 selection, no winners

2012 results:  8 selections, 4 units bet, 1 winner, SP return of $5.00 (POT = +25%), BOB return of $5.00 (POT = +25%)

Overall Results

April 21:  1 selection, 0.5 units bet, no winners

2012:  34 selections, 30 units bet, 2 winners, SP return of $14.00 (POT = -53%), BOB return of $14.50 (POT = -52%)

 

Saturday April 28

Randwick (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 4 No. 1 Miss Keepsake

• Two runs back this preparation have been excellent (a first-up win followed by a Group 1 second to More Joyous)
• Strong form last campaign, highlighted by a fourth in the Group 2 Villiers Stakes.
• Well in at the weights under the SWP conditions of this race.
• Will roll forward in a race where the speed is unlikely to be strong.

Race 6 No. 2 Drunken Sailor

• Excellent run when third in the Group 1 BMW behind Manighar and Americain.
• Proven 3200-metre galloper with a win and three seconds, including a second in the Adelaide Cup when carrying 59 kilos.
• Placed in all five runs this campaign (all carrying 59 kilos or more).
• Drops to 57 kilos for this race.

Race 8 No. 3 Neeson

• Excellent WFA form (beaten under a length in both the Group 2 Challenge Stakes and Group 1 TJ Smith) reads fantastically for a Listed race.
• Only poor run this campaign was in the Group 3 Liverpool City Cup, where he pulled up with cardiac arrhythmia.
• Two wins and a second from six races at Randwick.
• Only has to concede 1.5 kilos to Nobby Snip (a three year-old whose best win is at Listed level) and stablemate Tiger Tees (whose best win was in a BM 89 race).
• Drawn poorly, but the likely strong early speed should give him a chance to slide across into a position with some cover (I hope).

 

Eagle Farm (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 5 No. 10 Rosagaze

• A career record of five and two seconds from just 10 starts,
• Excluding first-up runs, her race record stands at four wins and two seconds from six starts, including two wins from as many runs when second-up.
• A win and a second from her two previous runs over 1400 metres.
• Last start seventh (when first-up) was forgivable, as she drew wide and was never on the track.
• From barrier two, should be able to race much more handy to the speed, as she did last preparation when winning three out of four races.

Race 8 No. 5 Excellantes

• Drops from Listed/ Group 3 level racing back to a Class six race.
• Form lines through Adebisi, Spirit Of Boom, Listen Son, My Destiny et al are by far the best in this race.
• Take out his five runs on slow tracks and his career record stands at five wins and six placings from 12 starts.
• Three wins and three placings from only six attempts over the 1200 metres at Eagle Farm.
• Draws barrier two, while likely favourite Rocker is awkwardly drawn in gate 12.

 

Morphettville (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 3 No. 4 My Ex Mate

• Won four of his five races this preparation, including the last three on end.
• Yet to run over 2000 metres, but last two wins have been over 1800 metres (carrying 57.5 kilos) and 1900 metres (carrying 56 kilos).
• Drops to 54.5 kilos for this race.  
• Won his only previous start at Morphettville.

Race 8 No. 13 Go The Knuckle

• Won three and placed in another two of his six career runs to date – may well be untapped.
• Last start winner at Group 2 level (in the Euclase Stakes) over 1200 metres, defeating Satin Shoes. Prior to that, was a fast-finishing second to Celebrity Girl over 1050 metres in the Listed Redelva Stakes.
• Drops to 54 kilos for this race and drawn to get an easy run from an inside gate. 
• In a race with plenty of speed engaged (Periduki, Kulgrinda, Conservatorium, First Command, etc), will get his chance to power home late.

 

Making The Nut is very pleased to have Luxbet on board as a sponsor of the site again in 2012.

Luxbet is offering a free $100 bet (literally a bet to nothing) if you sign up to their website either via one of the numerous banners or text links around this site. Just sign up and win (or not lose, as the case may be) on your free bet! Such patronage will also help this site to grow in stature over time.

Luxbet offer a wide variety of bet types when it comes to thoroughbred racing. In particular, for something as simple as a win-only bet on any given race, there are a number of different odds options that can be taken. For reasons I’ve previously articulated in some detail, their ‘Best of Best’ odds option is my personal favourite. You can certainly do a lot better than the SP when you’re betting with Luxbet.

Thanks to Matt King/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo