August 20 Racing Selections
Technically spring might still be a couple of weeks away, but with the likes of Maluckyday, Ilovethiscity, Shootoff and Scared Choice resuming this week, as a race fan you wouldn’t know it. Tips for this weekend cover the August 20 meetings at Moonee Valley, Warwick Farm (featuring the Group 2 Warwick Stakes), Doomben and Morphettville Parks.
Results for August 13
Invalid tips (due to scratchings and/ or track ratings that were outside the prescribed range)
Nil
Tips where the SP was $5.50 or less
Rosehill – Soul ($5.00 SP) – unplaced
August 13 Results: One selection, no winners
Overall Results: 69 selections, 15 winners, SP return of $54.55, SP POT = -2`%, Luxbet BOB return of $64.20, BOB POT = -7%
Tips where the SP was $6 or greater
Caulfield – Diggersanddelaers ($8.50 SP) – second
Caulfield – Utah Saints ($18.00) – unplaced
Caulfield – Simply Put ($41.00) – unplaced
Caulfield – Platinum Passion ($6.50) – unplaced
August 13 Results: Four selections, no winners
Overall Results: 67 selections, eight winners, SP return of $64.00, SP POT = -4%, Luxbet BOB return of $74.80, BOB POT = +12%
All tips
Overall Results: 136 selections, 23 winners, SP return of $118.55, SP POT = -13%, Luxbet BOB return of $139.00, BOB POT = +2%
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Rules
(1) A ‘track rating range’ for which the tip will be considered valid will accompany selections.
(2) Results refer to a win-only bet at the bookmakers’ starting price (SP) or Luxbet’s ‘Best of Best’ (BOB) price divided into two groups– those where the SP is $5.50 or less (Group 1), and those where the SP is $6 or greater (Group 2).
Saturday August 20
Moonee Valley (tips based on a track rating range of dead 4 to slow 7)
Race 4 No. 3 Crabs
Finally, he gets to a suitable trip and suitable level of race fitness! His last start seventh behind Light Vision over 2000 metres at Caulfield was better than it looked, and I am taking the seven-day back up into this race as a positive sign. He has four wins and two seconds from ten starts over the distance, including two wins and a second from just four starts at the track and trip. He also excels on rain-affected going, with seven wins and five placings from 15 starts on slow tracks.
Race 8 No. 6 Dusty Star
This promising four year-old is extremely well placed in such a race. He drops substantially in class from his first-up effort, a fourth placing behind Mid Summer Music in the Group 3 WFA Bletchingly Stakes. He won at Group 2 level in the autumn, defeating the very talented Under The Eiffel. I expect him to roll forward from the wide barrier, and thus the short Moonee Valley straight may well be in his favour. With the likely favourite December Draw first-up from a spell and yet to be tested at tougher levels than the class of today’s race, I think he can be taken on with a proven Group level performer.
Warwick Farm (tips based on a track rating range of dead 4 to slow 7)
Race 4 No. 4 Winter King
The likely track conditions have swayed me his way over the likes of Neeson and Thankgodyourehere. He possesses an impressive record of six wins and five placings on rain-affected going and in particular, four wins and a second from five starts on slow or heavy tracks. His first-up effort when losing a photo finish to Rain Affair in the Group 3 Missile Stakes was excellent, and he meets Neeson 1.5 kilos better off for beating him home in that race. With his forward-running style I think he’ll give them plenty to catch in the home straight.
Doomben (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)
Race 4 No. 2 Eureka
Much as with Crabs at Moonee Valley, it is best to overlook this galloper’s three finishing positions to date this preparation (all in unsuitably short races) and focus on his race fitness (should be close to 100 per cent in his fourth run of this preparation) and his record at this distance range. He has four wins from 11 starts at the track, three wins and a second from seven starts over the distance and a win at his only attempt and this track/ distance. He was competitive against the likes of Caloundra Cup winner Spechenka at this distance range last preparation and in a race with limited depth, I think his class edge will be the deciding factor.
Morphettville Parks (tips based on a track rating range of dead 4 to slow 7)
Race 6 No. 1 Rebel Raider
Call me old fashioned if you must, but in WFA races I prefer to tip horses with proven WFA form behind them, and the top weight here fits the bill nicely. He won the Group 3 Spring Stakes in August last year and ran a solid fourth in this year’s edition when resuming from an 11-month layoff. The 1400-metre journey this time is more suitable and he has won two of three attempts on slow ground. The tempo of this race should be pretty solid, so expect him to be charging home late.
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Thanks to Matt King/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo
