Best Shot for Goal – Left or Right?

I was watching the Round Two AFL encounter between Hawthorn and Melbourne with my housemate Greg, an ardent Hawthorn supporter. During the third quarter, the Hawks extended their lead to one goal and 19 behinds (or 25 points if you want to get technical about it). At this point, and as Greg approached  his wits end with the goal kicking ‘exploits’ of Lance Franklin and Jarryd Roughead to name but two, he muttered “We’re never going to be a good side in front of goal if we keep signing left-footers.”

As an Essendon fan who had become accustomed to the straight shooting of Matthew Lloyd for over a decade, the concept was new and somewhat alien to me, but the current form of Franklin, Roughead and Travis Cloke meant that it could not be dismissed off-hand. That got me to thinking – do left-footed key forwards have a worse time in front of goal than their right-footed counterparts? Is Lloyd the exception that proves the rule, or are the current crop undoing a proud tradition of accurate left-foot kicks for goal? It sounds like a case for another research project.

In order to provide some sensible analysis of comparative goal kicking records, we need to establish a sensible benchmark for ‘decent’ goal kicking. Taking the 2010 Coleman Medal leader board and analysing the number of goals and behinds kicked by the premier forwards of the competition, we find that the median percentage of goals kicked relative to shots on goal is:

(1) Around 66 per cent when restricting analysis to the ten players who kicked 50 or more goals in 2010;

(2) Around 65 per cent when restricting analysis to the 18 players who kicked 40 or more goals in 2010; and

(3) still around 65 per cent when restricting analysis to the 33 players who kicked 30 or more goals in 2010.

Going back a little further, the goal kicking percentages for a few of the most prolific goal kickers of the past 25 years are as follows:

73 per cent – Tony Lockett

68 per cent – Jason Dunstall

65 per cent – Gary Ablett Snr, Saverio Rocca

64 per cent – Alistair Lynch

63 per cent – Barry Hall, David Neitz

62 per cent – Stephen Kernahan

61 per cent – Wayne Carey, Brendan Fevola

59 per cent – Matthew Richardson

With this information in hand, let us consider a 62.5 per cent strike rate (or five goals from every eight shots) to be the benchmark – how do the most prominent left-footers of recent years fare in comparison?

Peter Sumich

150 matches for West Coast from 1989-1997. 514 goals and 354 behinds (59.2 per cent accuracy).

Sumich was a full forward with a booming left foot kick and topped the goal kicking for the Eagles from 1989 to 1994. However, his kicking action also led to what in golf would be known as a ‘snap hook’ – many a shot for goal would start its journey well left of the intended target only to swing hard to the right in midair and either find its target or slide across the face of goal.

During the 1991 Eagles campaign that led to a Grand Final defeat, Sumich would run second in the Coleman Medal (no small feat in an era where Jason Dunstall, Gary Ablett Snr and Tony Lockett were running rampant) with 111 goals. Digging a little deeper shows a missed opportunity – Sumich kicked 111.89 (200 shots for goal), whereas Coleman Medal winner Lockett kicked 127.51 (178 shots for goal). All is not lost though – Making The Nut are proud to announce the creation of the Peter Sumich Medal, for players who had the most shots at goal for the season but failed to win the Coleman Medal. This column will note retrospective Sumich Medallists over the past two decades – as an aside, all are left-footers.

Brett Allison

228 matches for North Melbourne and Sydney from 1987-2000. 286 goals and 176 behinds (61.9 per cent accuracy)

Often the foil for John Longmire and Wayne Carey, Allison was the small forward who never had a huge season in front of goal but consistently kicked between 20 and 40 goals per season during a successful era for the Kangaroos. Interestingly, his two biggest season hauls (43 goals in 1997 and 39 goals in 1995) came in two of the few years where his goal kicking accuracy exceeded 65 per cent.

Peter Everitt

291 matches for St Kilda, Hawthorn and Sydney from 1993-2008. 383 goals and 242 behinds (61.3 per cent accuracy)

A ruckman who could also play as a tall forward (and did so regularly in the early part of his career), Everitt reached 40 goals in four out of five seasons from 1996 to 2000. His best year in a goals-per-game sense came in 2000 where he kicked 40 goals in just 15 matches and was shooting for goal with 69 per cent accuracy. Had he displayed the same accuracy in 1998, he would have broken the 50-goal mark for the only time in his career, rather than posting a career-high of 45 goals.

Ben Dixon

203 matches for Hawthorn from 1997-2007. 282 goals and 176 behinds (61.6 per cent accuracy)

Often the number two forward behind the likes of Jason Dunstall, Ben Holland and in later years Lance Franklin, Dixon nonetheless kicked 30+ goals in four seasons and from 1998 through to 2001 kicked 133 goals in 83 games, despite an accuracy percentage of less than 58. The 2000 season in particular was a double-edged sword – Dixon kicked a career high 43 goals for the season but also kicked at a career low accuracy of 56 per cent, frittering away the opportunity to post a 50-goal season.

Matthew Lloyd

270 matches for Essendon from 1995-2009. 926 goals and 424 behinds (68.6 per cent accuracy)

Lloyd was a real model of consistency when shooting for the big sticks. In a career that spanned 15 seasons, his goal kicking accuracy only dropped below 64 per cent in his first (1995), eighth (2002) and final (2009) seasons, whilst soaring beyond 70 per cent on six occasions. Such accuracy, combined with his role as Essendon’s primary forward and a period of stronger-than-average Bombers sides led to Lloyd collecting Coleman Medals in 2000, 2001 and 2003 and reaching the upper echelons of the all-time VFL/ AFL goal kickers list.

Scott Lucas

270 matches for Essendon from 1996-2009. 471 goals and 309 behinds (60.4 per cent accuracy)

I’m stealing a Bill Simmons phrase in referring to Scott Lucas as the ‘second banana’ of the Essendon forward line for over a decade. His goal kicking can be split into two distinct periods – his ‘tearaway’ days (1996 to 2004, 252 goals, 57 per cent accuracy) and the latter part of his career (2005 to 2009, 219 goals, 65 per cent accuracy) where his greater maturity brought about three consecutive seasons of 50+ goals. The last five years were a strong return for a man whose right foot had a chronic allergy to the football.

Fraser Gehrig

260 matches for West Coast and St Kilda from 1995-2008. 549 goals and 285 behinds (65.8 per cent accuracy)

The ‘G-Train’ became our second Sumich Medallist in 2005 when he kicked 78.49 (127 shots for goal) and fell just short of Barry Hall’s 80.41 (121 shots for goal) in the Coleman Medal race. Having secured a Coleman Medal of his own in 2004 with 103 goals at better than 70 per cent accuracy, Gehrig was one of the more accurate left-footers on this list, finishing his career with a 66 per cent strike rate in front of goal.

Nathan G. Brown

219 matches for Western Bulldogs and Richmond from 1997-2009. 349 goals and 257 behinds (57.6 per cent accuracy)

An elusive small forward for the Bulldogs and Tigers, Brown’s most effective two seasons in front of goal were for the Bulldogs in 2002 and 2003, where he kicked 57 and 56 goals respectively. They sound like two very similar seasons until you delve a little further – he kicked an impressive 57.24 (70 per cent accuracy) in 2002 but a wasteful 56.51 (52 per cent accuracy) in 2003. A forward who has 107 shots for goal should come up with at least 65 to 70 ‘majors’.

Brad Green

223 matches for Melbourne from 2001-Rd 3 of 2011. 298 goals and 162 behinds (64.8 per cent accuracy)

Never the key Demons forward until thrust into the role last year in his tenth season of senior footy, Green has nonetheless proven to be quite reliable in front of goal over the years, only dropping below 60 per cent accuracy on two occasions (2002 and 2006).

Lance Franklin

123 matches for Hawthorn from 2005-Rd 3 of 2011. 378 goals and 272 behinds (58.2 per cent accuracy)

It is hard to believe now, but ‘Buddy’ Franklin had quite an accurate start to his AFL career, kicking a combined 52.22 (70 per cent accuracy) in 2005 and 2006. In 2007, however, Franklin became our third Sumich Medallist when he kicked 73.62 (135 shots for goal) and was beaten for the Coleman Medal by Jonathan Brown’s 77.38 (115 shots for goal). Franklin went on to win the 2008 Coleman Medal in spite of his inaccuracy, logging 113.88 and more than a handful of kicks out of bounds. His accuracy improved to around 60 per cent in 2009 and 2010, but a record of 9.12 after three rounds of the 2011 season does not bode well.

Jarryd Roughead

128 matches for Hawthorn from 2005-Rd 3 of 2011. 244 goals and 172 behinds (58.7 per cent accuracy)

After a slow start to his career (at least from a goal kicking perspective) in 2005 and 2006, Roughead has since emerged as a key forward target for the Hawks, kicking at least 40 goals in each of the past four seasons and more than 50 goals in each of the past three seasons. However, 2009 aside his accuracy has been poor, with a 2010 record of 53.46 proving particularly frustrating for the Hawthorn faithful.

Travis Cloke

127 matches for Collingwood from 2005-Rd 3 of 2011. 164 goals and 160 behinds (50.6 per cent accuracy)

Ye gods, what an awful kick for goal Travis Cloke is. He failed to reach a 50 per cent accuracy rate in 2005, 2006, 2009 and 2010, finished bang on 50 per cent in 2007 and only finished on the happy side of the ledger in 2006 when kicking a career-high of 40 goals for the season.

Summarising these figures and referring back to the 62.5 per cent benchmark provides a telling snapshot:

Above benchmark level – Lloyd, Gehrig, Green

Below benchmark level – Sumich, Allison, Everitt, Dixon, Lucas, Brown, Franklin, Roughead, Cloke

A similar story unfolds when including the aforementioned left-footers in the earlier table of prolific right-footed goal kickers (left-footers marked in bold):

73 per cent – Tony Lockett

69 per cent –Matthew Lloyd

68 per cent – Jason Dunstall

66 per cent –Fraser Gehrig

65 per cent – Gary Ablett Snr, Saverio Rocca, Brad Green

64 per cent – Alistair Lynch

63 per cent – Barry Hall, David Neitz

62 per cent – Stephen Kernahan, Brett Allison, Ben Dixon

61 per cent – Wayne Carey, Brendan Fevola, Peter Everitt

60 per cent –Scott Lucas

59 per cent – Matthew Richardson, Peter Sumich, Jarryd Roughead

58 per cent – Nathan G. Brown, Lance Franklin

51 per cent – Travis Cloke

I think my housemate Greg is onto something here – to phrase it in the manner of a Chinese proverb, “He whose club signs many left-footers must prepare for frustration in front of goal”.