February 19 Racing Selections

Two quick side notes before we get to the results from last week and the February 19 selections for Flemington, Rosehill, Doomben and Morphetville. Firstly, whilst results for these selections will be presented on the basis of the starting price (SP), it’s often worth looking at the pre-post markets on Saturday morning to see if better odds are available. As an example, fellow Nut columnist Nick Tedeschi and I both took $7.00 about Lord Pyrus in pre-post markets around an hour before the race jumped – he shortened to $4.40 on track and duly saluted. It’s just something to keep in mind.

Second, I have to pass on my apologies for screwing up the track ratings for three weeks in a row. For some reason when writing the column in week one I stupidly got it into my head that the track system went fast 1 & 2, good 3 & 4, dead 5 & 6, slow 7 & 8 and finally heavy 9 & 10. That of course is incorrect – there’s only one fast category while there are three heavy categories. So all references to ‘good 3 to dead 6’ should have read ‘good 2 to dead 5’. Similarly, all references to ‘dead 5 to slow 8’ should have read ‘dead 4 to slow 7’. This will be corrected for all future columns and my CAT scan appointment will be booked in immediately.

Results for February 12

Invalid tips (due to scratchings and/ or track ratings that were outside the prescribed range)

Shellscrape (scratched)

Tips where the SP was $5.50 or less

Caulfield– Lord Pyrus ($4.40 SP) – Won

Caulfield – Beaded ($2.60) – Won

February 12 Results: Two selections, two winners, SP return of $7.00

Overall Results: Ten selections, four winners, SP return of $13.80, profit on turnover (POT) = 38%

Tips where the SP was $6 or greater

Caulfield – Winter King ($13.00 SP) – unplaced

Eagle Farm – Ollie Vollie ($8.00) – unplaced

Morphetville – Tahnee Topaz ($7.50) – unplaced

February 12 Results: Three selections, no winners

Overall Results: Five selections, one winner, SP return of $8.50, profit on turnover (POT) = 70%

Rules Recap

(1) Selections will be accompanied by a ‘track rating range’ for which the tip will be considered valid.

(2) Results will be based on a win-only bet at the bookmakers’ starting price (SP), and will be split into two groups– those where the SP is $5.50 or less (Group 1), and those where the SP is $6 or greater (Group 2).

Here are the selections for this Saturday:

Saturday February 19

Flemington (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 2 No. 6 Pass Me By

I’m expecting a much improved run from this horse third up from a spell, as he has a career record of one win and two placings from 13 starts either first or second up, but six wins and three placings from 15 starts when at his third or subsequent runs of a campaign. Gets out to much more suitable distance of 2000 metres this time around and drops from 59 kgs when fifth over 1600 metres at Moonee Valley last start to 53 kgs here. The Peter Moody stable is currently on fire, and thus his runners should always be given serious consideration.

Race 7 No. 5 Barwon Express

He was a very unlucky third behind Rockpecker at Sandown last start when unable to secure a clear run in the straight, has won three of his five starts at today’s 1400 metre journey, gets in with just 54 kgs after the claim (meeting Rockpecker better at the weights) and has a race fitness edge over a couple of the more fancied runners here in Eraset and Niblick.

Randwick (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 3 No. 4 Pureness

Has won four of five career starts, with the only miss being in the Group 3 Ritchie Handicap last spring where beaten less than three lengths by Drumbeats. Resuming here in a BM 95 race is a much easier proposition, and the lack of apparent speed in the race will suit Pureness’ penchant for racing up near the speed.

Race 5 No. 3 Beijing Boy

He is such an honest conveyance and quickly becoming one of my favourites. His overall record is eight wins and five placings from 20 starts, but since arriving in Australia he has racked up six wins and three placings from only eleven starts in races in the 1500 to 2400 metre distance range. In his previous run over a shorter-than-optimal 1500 metres, he ran on from last at the turn to finish second behind the impressive winner Triple Elegance. That’s a great form line for a race such as this, and with only 54.5 kgs today the handicapper hasn’t caught up with him yet.

Race 6 No. 1 Danleigh

He’s a horse that typically derives a lot of benefit from his first run back from a spell, as evidenced by his record of four wins from nine starts when second up. Last autumn he was beaten by 1.5 lengths when running fifth in the Expressway Stakes and subsequently won this race despite drawing barrier 13. This year he was beaten by 2.1 lengths when running fourth in the Expressway Stakes and has drawn barrier 10 here. He’s certainly capable of winning back-to-back Apollo Stakes tomorrow.

Race 7 No. 4 Trim

She has won three of 13 starts overall, but that record boils down to three wins from ten starts and this distance and perhaps more significantly, three wins from only seven starts when either first or second up in a campaign (she is first up in this race). In the spring she won the Group 3 Research Stakes despite drawing barrier 15, so gate nine shouldn’t present any major hurdles this weekend.

Morphetville (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 5 No. 3 Broken

This last start winner at the track and distance gets in with 54.5 kgs after the claim, has four wins and four placings from 11 starts over the 1000 metre scamper and has excellent recent form lines through nice sprinters such as Éclair Mystic, Dubleanny, Stirling Grove and Royal Charades. He’ll prove very hard to hold out again this time.

Race 7 No. 6 Maunatrice

Her overall record is eight wins from 23 starts, but that improves to eight wins from 18 starts when you remove the first up runs of this out-and-out stayer. She has won three of five starts at the distance, two of three at the track and her last three starts in succession. She gets in on the 53kg minimum limit and has drawn well in barrier three. I can’t think of a single reason to pot her.

Thanks to Matt King/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo