February 26 Racing Selections
Racing tips this week will cover the February 26 meetings at Caulfield, Rosehill, Eagle Farm and Morphetville Parks. But before we get to that, a quick recap of results from last week:
Results for February 19
Invalid tips (due to scratchings and/ or track ratings that were outside the prescribed range)
Nil
Tips where the SP was $5.50 or less
Rosehill – Pureness ($2.90 SP) – third
Rosehill – Beijing Boy ($3.00) – unplaced
Morphetville – Broken ($1.85) – third
Morphetville – Maunatrice ($4.60) – Won ($6.00 was bet in Saturday morning pre-post markets)
February 19 Results: Four selections, one winner, SP return of $4.60
Overall Results: 14 selections, five winners, SP return of $18.40, profit on turnover (POT) = 31%
Tips where the SP was $6 or greater
Flemington – Pass Me By ($15.00 SP) – unplaced
Flemington – Barwon Express ($6.50) – unplaced
Rosehill – Danleigh ($11.00) – unplaced
Rosehill – Trim ($9.00) – unplaced
February 19 Results: Four selections, no winners
Overall Results: Nine selections, one winner, SP return of $8.50, profit on turnover (POT) = -6%
All tips
Overall Results: 23 selections, six winners, SP return of $26.90, profit on turnover (POT) = 17%
Rules
(1) Selections will be accompanied by a ‘track rating range’ for which the tip will be considered valid.
(2) Results will be based on a win-only bet at the bookmakers’ starting price (SP), and will be split into two groups– those where the SP is $5.50 or less (Group 1), and those where the SP is $6 or greater (Group 2).
Here are the selections for this Saturday:
Saturday February 26
Caulfield (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)
Race 2 No. 1 Scenic Shot
Finally reaches a suitable trip and with three runs under his belt this preparation, should now be ready to fire. He has carried big weights to win much better races than this before, so don't be scared off by the 60.5 kg impost this time around. I think he'll simply be too classy for them.
Race 6 No. 1 Catapulted
Despite not including any horses backing up from the Lightning Stakes, this is still another very strong field for the Oakleigh Plate. I think they will go like the clappers up front with the likes of First Command, Avenue and Solar Charged taking up the running, and this will set up the race for Catapaulted who can sit off the speed and overpower them in the final stages. On good and dead tracks his overall record is ten wins and three seconds from just 16 starts. He won the Group 2 QTC Cup last winter and was a last start winner at this track and trip in the Group 3 Rubiton Stakes. Group 1 glory awaits him.
Race 8 No. 9 Linton
This looks like a bit of a trap race. Shocking is a Flemington horse. Heart Of Dreams is the likely favourite but hasn't won a race since 2009. There a few stayers engaged who are not yet fully wound up. Ginga Dude has some hope but I’m dubious about NZ form. I refuse to ever back Trusting again. Spacecraft, Hanks and my old pal Lord Pyrus (who got beaten in an RB89 race two starts back) are surely all in well over their head at Group 2 WFA level. I think it might be a race where two of the big 'finds' of the spring, Moudre and Linton, fight out the finish. Will go with Linton on the back of his better first up run in the Orr Stakes and his shorter race career to date (just the ten starts for three wins and four placings) that implies that he may have more untapped potential.
Race 9 No. 9 Simply Put
Jumped off her last start when I thought she'd be no match for Beaded, but jumping straight back on today. Her fourth place (beaten 2.1 lengths) to Beaded was a terrific run from a wide gate and the set weights and penalties conditions of the race see her get in nicely with 54 kg. In her three runs prior to that, she posted two wins and a second. Take out her one run on a heavy track and you're left with ten starts for four wins and four placings overall – a very solid record for a horse who was $11 in pre-post markets.
Rosehill (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)
Race 3 No. 3 Lone Command
His only loss in his last four starts was a second placing behind the very promising Triple Elegance. He gets in on the limit weight of 53 kg after the claim, has a record of five wins and four placings from 13 starts on good tracks and has recorded two recent wins at Rosehill. I think his rich vein of form can continue here.
Race 8 No. 3 Graceful Anna
Call me old-fashioned if you must, but I’m quite partial to following the form lines of elite Group 1 horses such as More Joyous, who Graceful Anna ran second to at her last start. A winner of six races (including the Gold Coast Magic Millions 3YO Classic) from 13 starts, her record when discounting first-up runs improves to five wins and 2 placings from just nine starts. Last preparation she was also mixing it with the best sprinters in the country, running fourth (beaten 2.3 lengths) in Group 2 QTC Cup behind Catapulted.
Eagle Farm (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)
Race 7 No. 1 The Jackal
He just missed last start when held up slightly at the 450 metre mark in a race where the speed wasn't quite as fast as he would prefer. Coming off a win at the start prior, he is obviously racing in great heart this preparation. Also draws gate five today instead of the more awkward gate nine that he was faced with at his last start.
Thanks to Matt King/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo
