February 4 Racing Selections
Tips for this weekend cover the February 4 meetings at Caulfield, Warwick Farm and Morphettville.
Final report card for 2011 and revised rules for 2012 tips
Results for January 27 and 28 selections
Tips which were either scratched, outside the prescribed track conditions or too short in price
Scratched – nil
Odds too short (less than $6 SP) – Centexpress, Bereft
Tips where the SP was in the $6-$9.50 range (1 unit bets)
Rorke’s Drift ($9.00 SP) – unplaced
January 27/28 results: 1 selection, 1 unit bet, no winners
2012 overall results: 6 selections, 6 units bet, no winners
Tips where the SP was in the $10+ range (0.5 unit bets)
Cross Street ($21.00 SP) – unplaced
January 27/28 results: 1 selection, no winners
2012 overall results: 2 selections, 1 unit bet, no winners
Overall Results
January 27/28: 2 selections, 1.5 units bet, no winners
2012: 8 selections, 7 units bet, no winners
Saturday February 4
Caulfield (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)
Race 7 No. 4 Royal Mail
He has really come of age since stepping up to this distance range, winning three and placing in one of his five starts at the trip. Perhaps just as important has been a return to firmer ground – he has five wins and two placings from nine starts on good or dead rated tracks, but is winless from five attempts on slow or heavy. At any rate, I don’t think you want to overthink this one – in form horse (won his last two starts), loves 2000 metres, loves firmer ground, ticks all the boxes.
Race 8 No. 15 Wealthy Lad
His last two efforts have been terrific – defeating the in-form Valedictorian (when giving him five kilos) and this track and trip two starts ago, then running third to Flyingconi at Flemington over the same journey. Given that he meets Flyingconi 3.5 kilos better today for being beaten only 0.7 lengths and has a far more favourable draw than the potential favourite, I think he is in this race up to his ears.
Warwick Farm (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)
Race 7 No. 9 Olinoor
There are seven horses in this race carrying 58 kilos or more, a number of whom carry a question mark over their wet track form. With that in mind, I’m going down towards the bottom of the weights to find this galloper who will carry only 54 after the claim and who has three wins and a second from only four starts on rain affected ground. His two runs at Warwick Farm have been sound – a fourth to the in-form Rolling Pin on dry ground and a narrow second to Tactless last start when carrying 58.5 kilos. With his on-pace running style, I think he’ll take some catching.
Morphettville (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)
Race 5 No. 2 Ocsmepop
With the clear favourite Cellarmaster still yet to win over a mile and now sneaking up in the weights to 58.5 kilos, I think he is vulnerable and can be taken on here. Ocsmepop has two wins and two placings over the trip, as well as recent second placings over both 1800 and 2000 metres, suggesting that a strong mile presents no problem for him. Importantly he also has some recent history carrying big weights, winning with 58 kilos four starts ago and running second with 58 kilos two starts back. I think he can prove too tough for the favourite.
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Thanks to Matt King/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo
