January 14 Racing Selections
Tips for this weekend cover the January 14 meetings at Flemington, Rosehill and Morphettville. Yes I know there is a feature meeting at the Gold Coast (the Magic Millions meeting), but to my mind that race card is a series of open/ trap races. Pick a winner or two and you should go home with a nice profit, but the probability of going home with a ‘duck egg’ is too high for my liking.
Final report card for 2011 and revised rules for 2012 tips
Results for January 7 selections
Tips which were either scratched, outside the prescribed track conditions or too short in price
Bag Of Nickels – scratched
Montjeu Madame – odds too short
Tips where the SP was in the $6-$9.50 range (1 unit bets)
Josimar ($6.50 SP) – unplaced
Miss Matari ($8.50) – second (in a photo too… dammit all)
January 7 (and 2012) results: 2 selections, no winners
Tips where the SP was in the $10+ range (0.5 unit bets)
Nil
Overall Results
January 7 (and 2012): 2 selections, no winners
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Saturday January 14
Flemington (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)
Race 5 No. 8 Platamone Castle
In a race with little obvious speed bar the topweight La Rocket, I think barrier 2 will allow this lightly-raced Mick Price galloper to position himself handy to the speed and put himself right into contention. Take out the final 2 runs of his previous preparation (when pushed out to 2000 metres twice) and he has 5 wins and 5 placings from just 11 starts, including 2 wins on end to kick things off this time in. I think that with just the 54 kilo limit to carry here, he can go on with it.
Race 6 No. 2 Mr Make Believe
I thought his first-up run when 6th in the Listed Christmas Stakes was quite reasonable, and last preparation he improved from a 5th placing first-up to win second-up and commence a run of 6 wins and 2 seconds from 8 starts. To my mind he is far better suited over 1400 metres (where he has 2 wins from 3 starts), and along with Danzylum represents the primary speed in the race. If they don’t chop at each other early on, they could take some running down.
Rosehill (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)
Race 6 No. 1 Sikka
3 wins from as many starts at the trip. 2 from 2 at the track and distance. 2 wins and a second to Rain Affair from 5 first-up runs. Spent much of his recent career racing in higher grade than the BM85 he faces here, but has only 55.5 kilos in this race after the claim. What is not to like?
Race 7 No. 1 Cabernet
If you forgive her last run (on a heavy track coming off an 8-week break) and focus more on her previous 2 runs in Group 3 and Listed company, suddenly she appeals significantly in this race. She has 3 wins and a placing from 5 goes at the trip, including a win in her only go over the 1400 metres at Rosehill. For a BM80 race she’s in quite reasonably with 57.5 kilos after the claim and with dry conditions likely (she has 4 wins from 6 runs on good tracks), I think she’ll take some serious holding out.
Morphettville (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)
Race 7 No. 1 Big Slick
His first-up win was emphatic (especially after 5 previous fresh runs failed to result in even a placing!) and with proven second-up form (2 wins and 2 placings from 4 such runs) I think he can go on with it. His best form has tended to come in the 1600-1800 metre range (he has 3 wins and 4 placings from 13 runs over the mile) and his ability to race handy is always a plus.
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Thanks to Matt King/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo
