July 16 Racing Selections
Tips for this weekend cover the July 16 meetings at Caulfield, Rosehill and Doomben.
Results for July 9
Invalid tips (due to scratchings and/ or track ratings that were outside the prescribed range)
Nil
Tips where the SP was $5.50 or less
Eagle Farm – Zippy Lou ($5.00 SP) – second
July 9 Results: Two selections, no winners
Overall Results: 61 selections, 13 winners, SP return of $50.40, profit on turnover (POT) = -17%
Tips where the SP was $6 or greater
Flemington – Perturbo ($6.50 SP) – Won
Morphetville Parks – Lexcen ($10.00) – unplaced
July 9 Results: Two selections, one winner, SP return of $6.50
Overall Results: 53 selections, six winners, SP return of $48.50, profit on turnover (POT) = -8%
All tips
Overall Results: 114 selections, 19 winners, SP return of $98.90, profit on turnover (POT) = -13%
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Rules
(1) A ‘track rating range’ for which the tip will be considered valid will accompany selections.
(2) Results refer to a win-only bet at the bookmakers’ starting price (SP) divided into two groups– those where the SP is $5.50 or less (Group 1), and those where the SP is $6 or greater (Group 2).
Saturday July 16
Caulfield (tips based on a track rating range of dead 4 to slow 7)
Race 6 No. 8 Warm Love
I’m not big on backing three year-olds against the older horses, but this filly’s claims are undeniable. She has five wins and four placings from just the 12 starts, and last preparation won three on end before a narrow second to Grand Duels in the Listed Kensington and then an impressive third to Black Caviar in the Group 1 WFA Lightning Stakes. Does anyone else in this field run a place in that particular race? I doubt it.
Rosehill (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)
Race 5 No. 3 Talapega
Many of her competitors in this race have found their level in restricted grade, but this mare may be a progressive type who goes on to bigger and better things. In his first five race starts, she won a maiden race on debut and posted two wins and a second from three races in restricted grade before finishing down the track behind Jersey Lily in the Listed Wiggle Handicap. The fact that connections thought enough of her to ‘throw her in the deep end’ so quickly and that she was given an outsider’s hope (she went around at odds of $19) in the race speaks volumes for her potential. Resuming back in a BM 80 today, I fancy that she can use the good barrier draw to pick where she left off last campaign.
Race 8 No. 3 Sikka
Here is a very honest gelding from the Chris Waller stable (who just keep churning out the winners) with a strong record over the 1100-metre journey of two wins and a second from three starts. His last four starts have resulted in two wins and two placings (behind promising types in Ofcourseican and Rain Affair). While the likely favourite Master Of Design does have a couple of very strong runs in his record to date, he has also had a stop-start career of late (just two runs since mid January of 2010) and thus I’m willing to take him on.
Doomben (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)
Race 3 No. 2 Win A Million
With four wins and seven placings from 14 starts, this mare is building up a very solid race record. Her record improves further when you analyse it over this distance, with three wins and three placings from just the eight starts). She has come back in excellent order this preparation, running fourth in the Listed Gai Waterhouse Classic before dropping back to an open Fillies & Mares handicap at the Sunshine Coast and winning well. While she takes on the boys today, it is in a restricted Class-6 and with the claim she gets in two kgs under the 55.5 kg limit. I think she will take plenty of holding out.
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