July 30 Racing Selections
With Spring Carnival excitement edging ever closer, tips for this weekend cover the July 30 meetings at Caulfield, Rosehill, Doomben and Morphettville.
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Results for July 23
Invalid tips (due to scratchings and/ or track ratings that were outside the prescribed range)
Nil
Tips where the SP was $5.50 or less
Flemington – Testascana ($2.40 SP, $2.80 BOB) – Won
Eagle Farm – Mystical Grey ($3.40 SP) – unplaced
July 23 Results: Two selections, one winner, SP return of $2.40, BOB return of $2.80
Overall Results: 66 selections, 14 winners, SP return of $52.80, SP POT = -20%, Luxbet BOB return of $62.30, BOB POT = -6%
Tips where the SP was $6 or greater
Flemington – La Rocket ($7.00 SP) – unplaced
Flemington – Two Hills ($6.00 SP) – unplaced
July 23 Results: Two selections, no winners
Overall Results: 55 selections, six winners, SP return of $48.50, SP POT = -12%, Luxbet BOB return of $57.60, BOB POT = +5%
All tips
Overall Results: 121 selections, 20 winners, SP return of $101.30, SP POT = -16%, Luxbet BOB return of $119.90, BOB POT = -1%
Rules
(1) A ‘track rating range’ for which the tip will be considered valid will accompany selections.
(2) Results refer to a win-only bet at the bookmakers’ starting price (SP) or Luxbet’s ‘Best of Best’ (BOB) price divided into two groups– those where the SP is $5.50 or less (Group 1), and those where the SP is $6 or greater (Group 2).
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Saturday July 30
Caulfield (tips based on a track rating range of dead 4 to slow 7)
Race 6 No. 8 Mid Summer Music
Here is a mare who has returned in outstanding form. She posted an emphatic win first up from a spell, got out of a frightful mess on the turn to somehow win second up at Moonee Valley (she meets third placegetter Rue Maple three kgs better at the weights this time around) and then had no luck last start when a narrow second to Flemington straight course specialist Perturbo. With seven wins from 12 starts overall, three wins from six starts over the 1200-metre journey and two wins from four starts at Caulfield, her credentials are almost impossible to ignore.
Rosehill (tips based on a track rating range of dead 4 to slow 7)
Race 5 No. 10 Sweetest Melody
A winner of four races (over distances ranging from 1200 to 1900 metres) from eight starts in her first ever preparation, this Gai Waterhouse-trained mare had had two strong trials leading into this first up foray, winning the second of them over 1200 metres. Her first preparation also brought about victories both first and second up, as well as wins at her only starts on slow and heavy surfaces, so she is well placed on rain affected going. With only 55 kgs and barrier three, I think she can roll forward and prove very hard to catch in the latter stages.
Race 7 No. 8 Turnstiles
How many horses resume in a BM 85 after finishing their previous campaign in Group company? It is a significant drop in class, and one that I think will see this Anthony Cummings-trained mare to advantage. She has won twice out of three attempts first up from a spell, including a first-up win on a slow track last preparation. She then went on to finish runner-up to quality sprinter Jersey Lily in the Listed Wiggle Quality before finishing down the track in the Group 1 Coolmore Classic and Group 2 Sapphire Handicap. In a race with some promising, lightly raced sprinters engaged, I think that form line through Jersey Lily is the best one and thus I will go with her.
Doomben (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)
Race 6 No. 7 Elusive Port
This six year-old gelding is something of a track and distance specialist, with five wins from ten attempts over the distance and three wins from four attempts over the 1350 metres at Doomben. He comes in here on the back of consecutive wins when third and fourth up from a spell, further highlighting that he is a much better horse with some race fitness on board (he has only one win from 12 races first or second up, but seven wins from 15 races when third up or later into a preparation). With only 52.5 kgs after the claim and little obvious speed engaged, I think he can come across from barrier ten and stalk the likely leader Tierqualo in running before proving to strong over the concluding stages.
Morphettville (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)
Race 6 No. 8 Evenmorereaction
Terrible name, solid horse. This four year-old gelding from the Mick O’Leary stable finally gets out to a more suitable 1600-metre journey (having won twice form three previous starts over this distance, including a win here) after two fourth placings over 1200 metres to kick off his preparation. When last in work, he was beaten 2.8 lengths by the promising Budriguez over 1550 metres at Morphettville Parks when conceding three kgs to that galloper – it’s fair to suggest that if Budriguez were in this race with 50 kgs (three less than Evenmorereaction), he’d go around as an odds-on favourite. That form line is good enough for me.
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Thanks to Matt King/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo
