June 25 Racing Selections
Splitting the provincial elements of the Queensland winter carnival (i.e. the Ipswich Cup and Caloundra Cup meetings) is the last Group 1 hoorah in Brisbane for the year, with one of my absolute favourites in Beaded set to go around as the very popular elect in the Tattersall’s Tiara (formerly known as the Winter Stakes). Tips for this weekend cover the June 25 meetings at Flemington, Rosehill and Eagle Farm.
Results for June 18
Invalid tips (due to scratchings and/ or track ratings that were outside the prescribed range)
Nil
Tips where the SP was $5.50 or less
Moonee Valley – Rue Maple ($5.00 SP) – third
Moonee Valley – Beltrois ($5.00) – unplaced
June 18 Results: Two selections, no winners
Overall Results: 57 selections, 12 winners, SP return of $46.80, profit on turnover (POT) = -18%
Tips where the SP was $6 or greater
Moonee Valley – Riveted ($7.00 SP) – third
Ipswich – Drenalin ($8.50) – third
June 18 Results: Two selections, no winners
Overall Results: 45 selections, five winners, SP return of $42.00, profit on turnover (POT) = -7%
All tips
Overall Results: 102 selections, 17 winners, SP return of $88.80, profit on turnover (POT) = -13%
Rules
(1) A ‘track rating range’ for which the tip will be considered valid will accompany selections.
(2) Results refer to a win-only bet at the bookmakers’ starting price (SP) divided into two groups– those where the SP is $5.50 or less (Group 1), and those where the SP is $6 or greater (Group 2).
Saturday June 25
Flemington (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)
Race 5 No. 13 Tiakinui
He is building up an impressive overall record, with six wins and seven placings from 20 starts. Last start he was narrowly edged by Rocky Times when second-up in an earlier heat of the Winter Championship – he meets that galloper 1.5 kgs better at the weights this time around. Last year he ran sixth in the Winter Championship final behind Doubtful Jack, so he is up to the class of winning a heat this year, and with only 53.5 kgs on his back and barrier two, I think he’ll have every chance to do so.
Race 7 No. 1 Secret Flyer
After an extended period of running in black-type races he dropped significantly in class last start at Caulfield and duly saluted. Prior to that, he had run third in the Listed Hareeba Stakes and fifth behind Blackfriars in the Group 2 WFA Australia Stakes. He has five wins and three placings over the 1000-metre scamper (including a win over this distance down the Flemington straight) and gets in rather nicely with 56 kgs after the claim. I expect his class to prevail again.
Rosehill (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)
Race 8 No. 14 Foxstar
Here is a mare on the up. Her 12 races to date have yielded four wins and six placings, with all four wins coming over five races last preparation as she really motored through the grades. She resumed in excellent order with a strong second placing behind My Vegas and has a win and a second from three starts over this journey. While the hot favourite Scarf does look a very promising type, this mare gets a clear weight advantage over the three year-old and is also drawn better – that may prove telling in the end.
Eagle Farm (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)
Race 2 No. 11 Irish Dream
At first glance, her overall record of three wins from 18 starts doesn’t look too great. Dig a little deeper though and you see three wins from 10 starts over this distance and perhaps more importantly, three wins from 11 starts on tracks rated dead or better. She simply does not handle very wet ground. In fact, subtract her last two starts on slow tracks and her most recent form reads like this: a 1.8 length win at this distance in a Class 4, a second at this distance behind promising sprinter Metallurgical and a second over 1300 metres to Beyonce’s Star in the Listed Just Now Handicap. Sounding better now, isn’t it? Throw in her recent transfer to the Peter Moody stable (prior to the Class 4 win) and her form lines are likely to be on an upward path, starting with this race.
Race 8 No. 7 Meet George
This tip is something of a speculator, given that he has never raced over the 1600-metre journey before (though he has won up to 1400 metres). I just can’t get past his excellent recent form lines for such a race. Last start he was sixth (beaten 2.5 lengths) behind Varenna Miss in the Group 2 QTC Cup, a race which Sincero came out of to win the Group 1 Stradbroke Handicap. Prior to that he was fourth (beaten 1.3 lengths) by Woorim in the Group 3 BRC Sprint and a luckless seventh (beaten 2.0 lengths) by Tampiko in the Listed PM’s Cup, where he never got a clear crack at them in the straight. If he runs the 1600 metres right out, I think his class edge will take care of the rest.
Thanks to Matt King/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo
