June 4 Racing Selections

Tips for this weekend cover the June 4 meetings at Sandown (Lakeside) and Eagle Farm. Punting results for the year to date have hit a submerged log since April 9, both the last Saturday on which I tipped more than one winner and the last Saturday where I tipped a winner at better than $3.80 SP.

There will be a full midyear ‘report card’ submitted at the end of June outlining the strengths and weaknesses of tips to date, but a trend that was foreshadowed in the inaugural column (see paragraphs below from my January 29 tips column for the details) has come to fruition.

“Here’s where this tips column throws in a twist. Overall race results for metropolitan racetracks over a sufficiently extended period tend to highlight that the SP is an excellent indicator of the probability of a horse winning (allowing a small margin for bookmaker profit, of course). For example, horses with an SP of $3 tend to win around 30 per cent of the time, horses with an SP of $5 tend to win just under 20 per cent of the time, horses with an SP of $9 tend to win around 10 per cent of the time and so forth, although at longer odds the bookmakers’ profit margin tends to increase a little. But you get the idea.

However, for reasons I’ve never particularly understood, the winning strike rate of my own tips does not follow that same ‘inverse of the SP’ pattern. My shorter-priced tips win significantly less frequently than the SP would suggest – I gave up betting shorter-priced horses a number of years ago for that very reason. Whereas my longer-priced tips tend to win more frequently than the SP would suggest, although 2010 was a slight loss overall because I got too cute in trying to take on favourites that simply should not have been taken on, such as backing More Joyous in the Cox Plate. I will endeavour not to repeat those mistakes in 2011.

Nonetheless, money can be made from both groups of selections, provided all things go to plan. Whilst the results for both Groups 1 and 2 will be reported as if they are both being bet on, the strategy more likely to result in a profit would be to ‘back’ (i.e. bet on) the horses in Group 1, and ‘lay’ (i.e. bet against) the horses in Group 2, either by directly ‘laying’ them via a Betfair account, or by simply picking a different horse (or horses) when it comes to making a bet in that race.”

Here we sit, approximately four months on, with the shorter-priced tips running at a clear loss (based on SP prices) and the longer-priced tips running at a profit. Of course, no corporate bookmaker worth the paper that their license is printed on only offers you the SP, so overall results would look better if prices were based on the most attractive price being offered by the corporate bookies. Nonetheless, the evidence appears solid that only the longer-priced selections within this column that should be the subject of a wager.

 

Results for May 28

Invalid tips (due to scratchings and/ or track ratings that were outside the prescribed range)

Caulfield – Basil Da Man, Believe n’ Achieve, About Ready (all outside prescribed track range)

Tips where the SP was $5.50 or less

Nil

May 28 Results: No selections, no winners

Overall Results: 52 selections, eleven winners, SP return of $41.80, profit on turnover (POT) = -20%

Tips where the SP was $6 or greater

Doomben – Femina Fashion ($13.00 SP) – unplaced

Doomben – Drenalin ($8.50) – unplaced

Morphetville – Magical Pearl ($7.00) – unplaced

May 28 Results: Three selections, no winners

Overall Results: 37 selections, five winners, SP return of $42.00, profit on turnover (POT) = 14%

All tips

Overall Results: 89 selections, 16 winners, SP return of $83.80, profit on turnover (POT) = -6%

 

Rules

(1) A ‘track rating range’ for which the tip will be considered valid will accompany selections.

(2) Results refer to a win-only bet at the bookmakers’ starting price (SP) divided into two groups– those where the SP is $5.50 or less (Group 1), and those where the SP is $6 or greater (Group 2).

 

Saturday June 4

Sandown Lakeside (tips based on a track rating range of dead 4 to slow 7)

Race 6 No. 1 Philda

Now third up from a spell, he has been competitive in both runs this preparation, finishing third behind Uxorious in the Wangoom and then third carrying 61 kgs on a heavy track at Cranbourne last start. He drops to 56.5 kgs for this race after the claim and has a win and a second placing from two starts on the Lakeside track. Most telling though are his results at the distance and on slow tracks – three wins and five placings from nine starts over the 1200-metre journey, and three wins and four placings from eight starts on slow ground, which he is likely to see again in this race. From barrier two he should race handy to the speed and be fighting out the finish.

 

Eagle Farm (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 3 No. 2 El Chico

One of the Kiwi invaders so prevalent at the Brisbane Winter carnival, his last start sixth (beaten 2.5 lengths) behind Woorim in the Group 3 BRC Sprint seems a reasonable form line at first glance. It becomes even more impressive when you consider that he didn’t have much luck in running, entered that race off a five-week break and was dropping in distance from 2000 metres back to 1350. With a little extra race fitness under his belt he now rises to a 1500-metre trip, which he has never run over, albeit that he has seven career wins over the 1400 to 1600-metre range. The likes of Woorim and Faster Son are not engaged here, and thus I think he can salute the judge first.

Race 5 No. 1 Culminate

I thought that her first-up run when fifth (beaten 2.6 lengths) behind Kanzan in the Group 3 Glenlogan Stakes was excellent given that she raced wide for much of the journey, and I think she can turn the tables on the winner this time around. Her second-up record (three wins from six attempts) is excellent, as is her record over the distance (seven wins and three placings from 16 starts). From a decent barrier (nine) in a such a big field, I think she can get a nice smother in the run and unleash a powerful finishing sprint.

Race 6 No. 6 King Pulse

Much as with El Chico, King Pulse ran well behind Woorim (fifth, beaten 2.1 lengths) when coming off a five-week break. Prior to that, he had run in Group 1 company at his previous five starts. He finished eighth in the Galaxy Handicap on an unsuitable heavy track; fifth in the Newmarket Handicap (behind Black Caviar); seventh in the Lightning Stakes (ditto); fourth in the 2010 Newmarket Handicap (behind Wanted); and second in the 2009 Coolmore Stud Stakes (narrowly edged out by Headway). This is not a Group 1-calibre field by any means, and with barrier five and only 54.5 kgs on his back, I think his class will prevail.

Thanks to Matt King/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo