Making Do When the Fat Cats Crow: Campaign Notes, Part 3
Things have, as those who move in political circles say, gone somewhat awry. If it wasn’t for Luffy, seemingly a cross between John Kennedy junior and James Carville, causing a great deal of weakness in the knees and thumping in the chest of women across Australia, the Coalition could be done. It has been a rough few weeks. Ever since the big debate, the Coalition has stumbled from one disaster to the next with all the grace of a rugby game.
Debates, to those with any political awareness, mean nothing. Particularly the worm, where channel nine invites a forum of leftist idiots and Labor voting geeks to offer their worthless opinion on proceedings, charted by a meaningless line that is supposed to represent the views of the nation. Beazley won his debates. Latham took his. Both were firing off teary concession speeches on Election Night.
While the results hold no meaning, appearing at scheduled nationally televised debates is somewhat important. Political image-makers the world over will be quick to tell you that it does not look particularly good walking into your own debate half-an-hour past tip-off. Most of us with common sense enjoy the work of Tony Abbott but even his most ardent supporters will admit he was made to look quite the fool. While Abbott has been the man to take the public beating, it is the organizational arm of the Coalition election campaign that should be whipped without mercy for allowing such a crazy and ludicrous screw-up. One of the great strengths of the Coalition in years gone by has been an ability to win elections through fantastic advance work, well orchestrated stunts and the capability of conveying tight messages that resonate. A mistake of this magnitude fills me with fear.
At least Tony Abbott gave that no good hack Nicola Roxon a decent serve. In times of fire and brimstone, you need to laugh.
And bet heavily. Nothing eases the pain like collecting from a humbled and disheveled bookmaker. With wagers on the Coalition winning the lot looking somewhat tenuous, it is time to look elsewhere. Individual seats. Below are ten seats where betting with flair comes highly recommended.
Bennelong: There are plenty of political pundits, led by the eternally wrong Malcolm Mackerras, who want to tell you that John Howard will lose his seat of Bennelong, which he has held since the Whitlam years. The word in these circles is that ABC blow-in Maxine McKew will knock off the Prime Minister and send him fleeing the country with his pants down and his dignity blowing in the wind. Rubbish. Despite the fact Bennelong is an obviously changing electorate in terms of demographic and despite the fact the Prime Minister only has a 4% margin, John Howard will not lose his seat. An electorate would be mad to throw out a Prime Minister and history suggests it will not happen. Howard can be bet down to $1.33. $1.48 is currently available at Portlandbet.
Boothby: South Australia will be a battlefield of broken bones and burning flesh for the Coalition. They will lose Kingston, Making and Wakefield and if things get real heavy, Sturt. Their one saving grace will be Boothby. The ALP has taken a gamble with pseudo-celebrity candidate Nicole Cornes and is set to pay the price for the ridiculous decision. She has embarrassed herself and the ALP from day one with her complete and utter stupidity. She appears to have the intellect of an Alzheimer-ridden afghan hound. Sportingbet are offering $1.33. Take it.
Braddon: Tasmania is going to Labor. All of it. There is absolutely no chance the Coalition will salvage Braddon or Bass. There is no Mark Latham to screw it up this time around. The Mersey Hospital issue has provided a glimmer of hope to the Coalition but the public embarrassment at having the takeover delayed won’t resonate well with the traditional Labor constituency. The return of Sid Sidebottom for the ALP, the member from 1998-2004, further strengthens Labor claims. The ALP is a bet at $1.38 (Portlandbet) to win Braddon.
Forrest: This West Australian seat is a downright lock for the Coalition and a $1.33 can be found. The Coalition are fielding an uninspiring candidate in Nola Marino but with a 10.5% margin and a feeling that Western Australia will turn against the Government less than any other state, it shouldn’t matter. The reason for the inflated price is the involvement of local newsreader Noel Brunning, who is running as an independent on a conservative platform. Brunning has shortened markedly in betting in the last month but the general feeling is that he has little hope and the price is an overreaction by books. Bet the Coalition to win Forrest at the overs.
Leichhardt: By the time counting is done, the Coalition are going to wish Queensland has seceded when Joh was calling the shots. There is a lot of crazy talk going on in Queensland and most of it has to do with a Coalition massacre. Queenslanders are a parochial lot, for good or ill, and most will get behind Kevin Rudd for no other reason than he is a Queenslander. Despite all this, Leichhardt (which, like Eden-Monaro, has gone the way of the winning party since 1972) should remain in Liberal hands. The margin is in excess of 10% and even though Warren Entsch has retired, there should still be enough Coalition support to see a Liberal member sent to Canberra. Portlandbet have $1.63 on offer for the Coalition and that looks a fair price for an electorate with a 10.3% margin.
McMillan: This seat will be close but Victoria does not look like it will be a state that will be shocking for the Coalition. Liberal Russell Broadbent currently holds the seat with a 5% margin and has developed a following as a maverick backbencher which will help to insulate him from any anti-Government sentiment. The Labor candidate is a union has-been going by the name of Christine Maxfield. The $1.75 at Lasseters for Broadbent looks a solid bet.
Page: The National Party, for good or ill, is heading the same way as the Democrats. The Nats will kick longer but the final result will be the same. And it is with each retirement of a National MP that one more chime of the death bell rings loud. That is what we have in Page, where popular local Ian Causley has hung up the gloves after eleven years. With the mood pro-Labor on the North Coast of New South Wales, things are not boding well for the Nationals in Page. The $2.50 available at Sportingbet for Labor is well and truly over the odds.
Petrie: As noted, Queensland will provide some most unpleasant returns for the Coalition. One of the seats in real danger for the Coalition, despite their big margin, is Petrie. The Coalition have an uninspiring member in Teresa Gambaro and with the momentum clearly with Labor, Petrie is not as safe as it may seem on paper. The $2.40 available at Lasseters about a Labor win is well worth an interest.
Solomon: This seat could go either way. Both parties are fielding rough and tumble candidates with incumbent Liberal Dave Tollner quite popular in the electorate and Labor representative Damian Hale, a football coach best known for being punched in the chops earlier this year by Fremantle firebrand Chris Tarrant. Tollner increased his margin in Solomon last time but is currently an outsider to claim the seat. Two interesting points of note: the Northern Territory has a history of throwing up quirky election results and the candidature of Jacques Chester, a former staffer of Tollner’s, for the Liberty and Democracy Party may direct votes towards the Coalition. The $2.28 for the Coalition to win Solomon is worth a speculative bet.
Wentworth: Despite the fact Wentworth appears, on paper, to be a marginal seat, Malcolm Turnbull will not be losing this well-to-do Eastern Sydney seat. Turnbull has screwed-up and done significant damage to the Coalition's chances throughout the campaign and deserves to be thrown to the wolves. But he will not be. He will throw bundles of cash at the electorate to ensure he is returned so he can keep alive his dream of one day leading the nation. The $1.42 at Portlandbet is a very good wager.
And that is the good oil.