March 10 and 11 Racing Selections
Tips for this weekend cover the March 10 meetings at Flemington (featuring the Group 1 Newmarket Handicap and Group 1 Australian Cup) and Warwick Farm (featuring the Group 1 Chipping Norton Stakes), plus the March 11 meeting at Canberra (featuring the Black Opal Stakes and Canberra Cup).
Final report card for 2011 and revised rules for 2012 tips
Results for March 3 selections
Tips which were either scratched, outside the prescribed track conditions or too short in price
Scratched – Niblick, We’re Gonna Rock
Track outside prescribed range – Haizum, Steel Zip (both won, with Steel Zip going around at $6.50 SP…… damn)
Odds too short (less than $6 SP) – Booklet
Tips where the SP was in the $6-$9.50 range (1 unit bets)
Nil
March 3 results: No selections
2012 results: 15 selections, 15 units bet, one winner, SP return of $9.00 (POT = -40%), BOB return of $9.50 (POT = -37%)
Tips where the SP was in the $10+ range (0.5 unit bets)
Nil
March 3 results: No selections
2012 results: 5 selections, 2.5 units bet, no winners
Overall Results
March 3: No selections
2012: 20 selections, 17.5 units bet, one winner, SP return of $9.00 (POT = -49%), BOB return of $9.50 (POT = -46%)
Saturday March 10
Flemington (tips based on a track rating range of dead 4 to slow 7)
Race 4 No. 13 Speediness
Two wins from two starts so far this preparation bring his career to four wins and four placings from nine runs, and it’s hard to see his form dropping off here. His last start win over the very promising Pago Rock at this track and trip was impressive, and when you consider that he had form through subsequent Group 1 winner Sincero last year, it’s easy to make a case for him being a progressive type with better races ahead of him. From barrier four he should get the gun run and prove hard to hold out.
Race 6 No. 6 Rain Affair
He and the topweight Hay List are the only two horses in the field who have made a mess of Group level fields under WFA conditions previously and thus they are my two fancies in the race. From those two, I’m going to go with the better odds/ lighter weight combination offered by the Joseph Pride-trained galloper. He has 10 career wins and a second from just 11 starts and has won his last two starts (both at Group 2 WFA level) by a combined 6.3 lengths. Granted, he’s yet to meet the absolute elite sprinters and is making his Flemington straight course debut here. Nonetheless, for a horse who has been saluting at odds-on quotes for some time now to get out to around the $7.50 quote, I’m willing to gamble that he’ll handle the change of scenery and jump in class.
Warwick Farm (tips based on a track rating range of slow 6 to heavy 10)
Race 5 No. 7 Brayroan
Here is a horse who is pretty easy to figure out; don’t back him first or second-up (eight total starts for two minor placings), then back him for the remainder of the preparation (six starts for five wins and a second). He has three wins from as many starts at the 1600-metre journey and is adept on wet tracks, with two wins, a second and two fourth placings from five starts on slow or heavy ground. Third-up now I expect him to make full use of barrier one and be fighting out the finish.
Race 8 No. 8 Ladys Angel
She’s a heavy track specialist, with three wins and two seconds from five starts on such going. Her fifth-placing when resuming in the Group 2 Breeders’ Classic was strong when you consider that (a) it came on her less-preferred dry ground and (b) she only has one win from four first-up runs, but four wins and four placings from 10 starts when second-up or further into a preparation. Extra race fitness and the recent heavy rain in Sydney see her both to advantage here; I think she is significantly over the odds.
Canberra (tips based on a track rating range of slow 6 to heavy 10)
Race 7 No. 9 World Wide
I really liked his last two starts when second to Skateboard (giving that galloper 4.5 kilos) at Canterbury off a five-week break and then sixth last start to the promising stayer Single (giving that galloper two kilos) off a further four-week break. His race fitness should have been brought along nicely by that last run and with only a 15-day break this time, he can be seen to advantage over 2000 metres, a distance over which he has a win and a second from two starts. He also thrives in wet conditions, having won four of six starts on slow or heavy tracks, compared to two wins and nine placings from 20 starts or tracks rated dead or better. With Tullamore vulnerable to my eye (second-up over 2000 metres with 59 kilos), I think we can work around the likely favourite.
Race 8 No. 11 Hood
He looked to be doing very little for much of his first-up run at Warwick Farm three weeks ago before picking up late and getting to the line nicely for third place behind Onthelookout. The run will have done him the world of good for the step up to 1400 metres – he has run at this track and distance once previously, finishing second on that occasion. The likely soft track is in his favour too, as he has run four times on heavy going for two wins and a second.
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Thanks to Matt King/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo
