March 19 Racing Selections
Racing tips this week will cover the March 19 meetings at Rosehill and Caulfield, as the meetings at Eagle Farm and Morphetville Parks are none too enticing. Although it will be nigh on impossible to top the racing of last weekend, highlighted by the phenomenal performance of Black Caviar. Her breaking of the race record in a Group 1 (nearing the Flemington 1200-metre record) whilst never having to be fully wound up by jockey Luke Nolen was something to behold. She is a star of the highest order and for the sake of horse racing in Australia I hope she remains injury free and in top form for at least a couple more years before a well deserved retirement.
Results for March 12
Invalid tips (due to scratchings and/ or track ratings that were outside the prescribed range)
Scratched – Beijing Boy (Warwick Farm)
Tips where the SP was $5.50 or less
Flemington – Lady Lynette ($4.60 SP) – unplaced
Flemington – Offenders ($5.50) – unplaced
Warwick Farm – Trim ($5.00) – third
March 12 Results: Three selections, no winners
Overall Results: 23 selections, six winners, SP return of $23.40, profit on turnover (POT) = 2%
Tips where the SP was $6 or greater
Flemington – Shocking ($8.50 SP) – Won
March 12 Results: One selection, one winner, SP return of $8.50
Overall Results: 15 selections, two winners, SP return of $17.00, profit on turnover (POT) = 13%
All tips
Overall Results: 38 selections, eight winners, SP return of $40.40, profit on turnover (POT) = 6%
Rules
(1) Selections will be accompanied by a ‘track rating range’ for which the tip will be considered valid.
(2) Results will be based on a win-only bet at the bookmakers’ starting price (SP), and will be split into two groups– those where the SP is $5.50 or less (Group 1), and those where the SP is $6 or greater (Group 2).
Here are the selections for this Saturday:
Saturday March 19
Caulield (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)
Race 4 No. 6 Returntosender
She was beaten less than three lengths last start over this distance by potential Coolmore Classic favourite Aloha when having to concede one kilo in weight, and drop from 57.5 kgs to 53 kgs this time around. She has two wins and two placings from seven starts over the 1400 metre trip and from barrier one can stalk the likely leader Danzylum and be prominent in the finish.
Race 6 No. 11 The Big Steel
His overall record stands at five wins and two placings from 14 starts, but improves to five wins from only ten starts when removing his first-up runs. He has won two of his three starts over the 1800 metres, including his only start at this track and distance. He was also a last start winner at Moonee Valley when second up and should roll forward in a race with little apparent speed.
Race 8 No. 2 Simply Put
An extremely honest mare that is quickly turning into a favourite of this column, she was narrowly defeated by Red Flair at her last start (causing a less than mature reaction from yours truly). The form lines around Red Flair and Newmarket Handicap placegetter Beaded at her second to last start read very well for a race such as this. Barrier 11 is far from ideal but if she can cross the field and position herself up near the leaders, she will take some beating.
Rosehill (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)
Race 7 No. 3 Palacio De Cristal
The nomination of Melito for this race has compressed the weights and lead to this high quality mare getting into the race with only 54.5 kgs, a drop of 3.5 kgs on her first up run when fifth behind Montana Flyer over 1300 metres. She ran third in this race last year and went on to run third in the Doncaster Handicap, so her class is well established. She does have a habit of missing the start and is not for the faint of heart, but expect her to be rattling home late in the race.
Race 8 No. 4 Miss Keepsake
Another case of keeping it simple – she has four wins and four placings from 14 starts overall. When looking at her starts when third up or later in a preparation, this record improves to three wins and two placings from seven starts. Try the same test when fourth up or later in a preparation and her record is three wins and one placing from four starts, including a Queensland Oaks victory. She is fourth up in this race, and put in a greatly improved run third up when runner up to the promising mare Warpath at Listed level. Hopefully you’re picking up what I’m putting down here…
Thanks to Matt King/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo
