March 5 Racing Selections
Racing tips this week will cover the March 5 meetings at Flemington, Warwick Farm and Morphetville. Before we get to that, I have some thoughts on selections to date. Fellow Nut Guru colunist Tim Napper made a very poignant point when he laid out how important it is to ‘know thyself’ as a poker player. That same idea translates quite neatly to the world of betting on sports/ horses. Am I doing the right things to try to make a profit in this column? Where are my strengths and weaknesses? Could the selection processes be improved and if so, how might that be done?
In analysing the selections to date, I’ve come to the view that the process has been a fraction too loose – Linton last week and Pass Me By on the Saturday prior were examples of tips that really should never have made it into this column. I was trying to force a couple of picks that weren’t really there for the sake of trying to bolster the number of tips and possibly jag an outsider victory – a strategy that might work on occasion but in the longer term will send you to the poor house. As ESPN’s Bill Simmons has often said in his NFL gambling picks columns, “Don’t be a hero, just try to win money.” Bill, your wise words have been noted.
Results for February 26
Invalid tips (due to scratchings and/ or track ratings that were outside the prescribed range)
Nil
Tips where the SP was $5.50 or less
Rosehill – Lone Command ($3.80 SP) – unplaced
Rosehill – Graceful Anna ($4.40) – second
Caulfield – Catapulted ($5.00) – unplaced
February 26 Results: Three selections, no winners
Overall Results: 17 selections, five winners, SP return of $18.40, profit on turnover (POT) = 8%
Tips where the SP was $6 or greater
Caulfield – Scenic Shot ($7.00 SP) – unplaced
Caulfield – Linton ($11.00) – unplaced
Caulfield – Simply Put ($7.50) – second
Eagle Farm – The Jackal ($7.00) – third
February 26 Results: Four selections, no winners
Overall Results: 13 selections, one winner, SP return of $8.50, profit on turnover (POT) = -35%
All tips
Overall Results: 30 selections, six winners, SP return of $26.90, profit on turnover (POT) = -10%
Rules
(1) Selections will be accompanied by a ‘track rating range’ for which the tip will be considered valid.
(2) Results will be based on a win-only bet at the bookmakers’ starting price (SP), and will be split into two groups– those where the SP is $5.50 or less (Group 1), and those where the SP is $6 or greater (Group 2).
Here are the selections for this Saturday:
Saturday March 5
Flemington (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)
Race 5 No. 1 Dane Julia
Forgive her first-up run behind Beaded in a race which was run over an unsuitably short 1200 metre distance. She is far better suited out to 1400 metres today and boasts two wins from six second-up runs, including a win at Listed level in the Wiggle Quality at Warwick Farm last year (that race is being run at Warwick Farm in competition to this race, as a matter of fact). The set weights and penalties conditions for this race see her giving less weight to her rivals than would be the case in a handicap.
Warwick Farm (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)
Race 4 No. 2 Latin News
He has trialled very well for a strong first up tilt at this race, gets in with 56 kgs after the claim and has drawn ideally in barrier two. Forgive his last preparation where he raced wide first-up in the Group 1 Manikato Stakes behind Hay List and subsequently struck two wet tracks at this other starts. In the preparation prior to that, he went around as $6.50 second favourite in the Group 1 Stradbroke Handicap, which is a strong reference for a BM 95 race. Expect the early speed in this race to be hot and Latin News to be flashing home late.
Race 7 No. 10 Avienus
I was tossing up the choice in this race between her and No Evidence Needed right up to the point where the latter drew horrendously in barrier 17. Avienus has five wins from 23 starts overall, but that record improves to 5 wins from 13 starts when omitting her first and second-up runs. Her last run looks a little unimpressive on paper, but it was in the Group 1 Futurity Stakes, where the pace was dictated by leader More Joyous and apart from Whobegotyou, very few horses made much ground in the straight. When you consider that Avienus was beaten only 1.6 lengths in the Group 1 Toorak Handicap and 4.5 lengths by So You Think in the Cox Plate last spring yet somehow gets into this Group 3 event on the 53 kg limit, she’s worth serious consideration in an open race.
Race 8 No. 4 Jersey Lily
Let’s keep this pretty simple. Jersey Lily has a record of three wins and ten placings from 18 career starts, but breaking that statistic down a little further highlights some telling figures. She has zero wins and two placings from seven first-up runs, zero wins and six placings from six second-up runs and finally three wins and two placings from only five runs that were third-up or later in a preparation. This preparation, she has run eighth behind More Joyous in her first-up run and a nice third behind Montana Flyer in her second-up run. Do I need to tell you where this trend is heading? Throw in the fact that she won a mares race at Listed level over this distance at Flemington on Melbourne Cup day in 2010 and that she’s drawn nicely in barrier six and I think she’s a huge threat to the likely favourite Kiss From A Rose.
Morphetville (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)
Race 5 No. 1 Time Matters
Granted, he hasn’t won a race for a couple of years now, but hear me out. At his last run he was beaten less than two lengths by Catapulted in the Group 3 Rubiton Stakes, finishing alongside subsequent Group 1 Oakleigh Plate winner Eagle Falls. At his previous preparation, he gave 4.5 kg to Velocitea when running second to her at this distance – Velocitea promptly went on to win the Group 1 Goodwood Handicap. Yet the set weights nature of this race allows him to enter a Listed race with only 55 kgs. Add to that a nice draw in barrier three and I think the drought can be broken for this talented and underrated horse.
Thanks to Matt King/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo
