May 12 Racing Selections

The run of outs continued last Saturday when Ladys Angel was run down in the home straight. One winner and ten freaking placings from the $6 to $9.50 SP range this season; three placings from the last five and four from the last eight, but no wins. I’m tipping with the effectiveness of a one-legged man in an arse-kicking contest right now…. and with that reverse jinx out of the way, tips for this weekend cover the May 12 meetings at Caulfield, Rosehill, Doomben (featuring the Group 1 BTC Cup) and Morphettville (featuring Black Caviar in the Group 1 Goodwood Handicap).

Final report card for 2011 and revised rules for 2012 tips

Results for May 5 selections

Tips which were either scratched, outside the prescribed track conditions or too short in price

Scratched – nil

Track outside prescribed range – Dual Chamber, Mid Summer Music

Odds too short (less than $6 SP) – Testascana, Supremacy

Tips where the SP was in the $6-$9.50 range (1 unit bets)

Hawkesbury – Ladys Angel ($6.00 SP) – second

May 5 results:   1 selection, no winners

2012 results:  28 selections, 28 units bet, 1 winner, SP return of $9.00 (POT = -68%), BOB return of $9.50 (POT = -66%)

Tips where the SP was in the $10+ range (0.5 unit bets)

Nil

May 5 results:  no selections

2012 results:  8 selections, 4 units bet, 1 winner, SP return of $5.00 (POT = +25%), BOB return of $5.00 (POT = +25%)

Overall Results

May 5:  1 selection, 1 unit bet, no winners

2012:  36 selections, 32 units bet, 2 winners, SP return of $14.00 (POT = -56%), BOB return of $14.50 (POT = -55%)

 

Saturday May 5

Caulfield (tips based on a track rating range of dead 4 to slow 7)

Race 6 No. 18 La Remas

• Up and coming four year-old who now has four wins and three seconds from just 11 races, including a win and two seconds from his three previous attempts at 1100 metres.
• Won three races last preparation before running a solid sixth to Catapulted in the Group3 Standish Handicap, then commenced this campaign with a fast-finishing win at Sandown Hillside.
• Drops 4 kilos from his last start win and is nicely drawn in barrier two (in a race where a number of fancied runners have drawn wide) to a cheap run behind the leaders.

Race 7 No. 2 There’s Only One

• Has a strong overall race record of six wins and three placings from just 14 starts.
• Has won her last five races in fillies and mares’ company.
• Won first-up last preparation in F&M grade at this track and distance.
• Gets in fantastically at the weights after the claim with only 52.5 kilos, or 1.5 kilos under the limit.
• The speed from Rue Maple, Silkstone Special and Tariana should be sufficient to give the run-on types (such as her) every possible chance.

 

Rosehill (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 7 No. 5 Lioncub

• Forgive his last start twelfth (when second-up from a spell) in the Listed Hall Mark Handicap where jokey Nathan Berry lost his irons as they turned for home.
• More broadly, he’s a much better horse third-up or later in a campaign – one win and three placings from 11 first or second-up runs, five wins and four placings from 13 races when further into a preparation.
• Has three wins and three seconds from eight previous runs over 1300 metres.
• Won three races in restricted grade last preparation.

 

Doomben (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 7 No. 11 Beaded

• Wonderful sprinting mare with 10 wins and 12 placings from 25 career starts.
• Won both of her previous starts at the track, including a Group 1 win in the Doomben 10,000 last year off a nine-week break.
• Drawn well in a middle barrier (eight) to get a cart across as Buffering and Adebisi cross from wider gates to lead.
• If you forgive her two Melbourne runs and trust that the seven-week freshen up will bring her back to her form of the last Brisbane winter (where she was part of the quinella in three consecutive Group 1 races), she’s a phenomenal price at almost double digit odds.

 

Morphettville (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 6 No. 1 Linton

• Ran second in the 2011 Australian Cup and third in the 2011 BMW (both at Group 1 WFA level) within his last five runs, yet the SWP nature of this race means that he gets in as equal topweight, only 2.5 kilos above the limit.
• His last effort when resuming (a seventh in the Group 2 WFA Memsie Stakes, beaten 3.4 lengths by King’s Rose) was a run that I doubt any other horse in this field could replicate.
• Definitely better suited on top of the ground – he has two wins and four placings from eight starts on good tracks.
• His three previous runs at a mile have resulted in a win, a third and a luckless sixth to Rekindled Interest in the Group 2 Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes at WFA level.
• At the time of acceptances, he was Steven Arnold’s only ride for the day. Hmm…..

Race 8 No. 2 Power Princess

• A proven mare at stakes level who is well weighted compared to some of her rivals under the SWP conditions of this race.
• Her 11 previous runs at 1200 metres have led to six wins and three placings, including a third to Black Caviar at Group 1 level a fortnight ago when wide for much of the trip.
• Prior to that, she ran a solid fifth against the boys when finishing behind We’re Gonna Rock, First Command and Catapulted in the Group 3 R.N. Irwin Stakes at WFA level.
• Damien Oliver jumps on board this time and from barrier two, she should get an easier run behind the leaders.

 

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Thanks to Matt King/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo