May 19 Golf Tips
The PGA TOUR winds its way back into Texas for the third time in eight weeks for the Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial. The Colonial Country Club has hosted this particular event since 1946 – among courses still on the current tour schedule, it is the second-longest ongoing run of hosting an event behind a little course called Augusta National.
To recap, similar principles to those which apply for “Sting’s racing selections” will be in place here – bets will only be recommended for a top-5 finish in the tournament of that week where the price offered is $6 or better, with odds offered by Centrebet being used in the analysis.
Results for May 12 selections
Matt Kuchar (The Players Championship): T-54.
Year to date selection results: 17 selections, one refund, no winning collects.
Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial
The par-70 Colonial layout can be a little deceiving. At first blush, the tree-lined fairways imply a tough road ahead and swift punishment for those who veer off the intended line. However, for professionals of such repute as those on the PGA Tour, this simply means leaving the driver in the bag more often than usual and proceeding with fractionally more caution. As such, the scoring is often very good – Zach Johnson posted a tournament record 21-under par 259 en route to victory last year, while the field averaged 68.54 strokes per round, making this the third-easiest par-70 course of 2010. Power is not a significant part of the equation for success at Colonial, but precision and putting definitely are.
Having done some navel gazing about this issue for a while, I am going to break my ‘$6 or better’ price rule here and tip you someone at odds of $5.50 with Centrebet for a top-5 finish in Jason Day. My argument for doing so in five points:
(1) Many of the world’s elite players are in Spain this week for a 24-player Volvo World Matchplay Championship, leaving the field in Texas thinner on quality than would typically be the case. (Side note: I toyed with the idea of assessing prices for that tournament, but the round robin opening round format and the butt kicking I was handed when betting the Accenture WGC Matchplay tournament made me think twice);
(2) Day enters the tournament in fine form – his five top-10 finishes from just ten starts in 2011 include three straight entering this tournament. He motored home with a back nine of 31 on Sunday at The Players Championship to grab a tie for sixth and some momentum heading into this week;
(3) He ranks highly for putting (ranked eighth on tour in 2011), birdies per round (ranked 15th) and the all-around category (ranked fourth), so he fits the bill statistically;
(4) He has prior form at Colonial, finishing alone in fourth place in 2009. It is stating the obvious to suggest that he is a more polished golfer in 2011 than he was in 2009; and
(5) His ‘ace in the hole’ card – he is a member of Colonial Country Club. As a result, he will have logged more rounds at the course than the vast majority of the field, despite being only 23 years of age.
Done and done. Jason, please justify my faith.
Thanks to Andrew Redington/Getty Images North America for use of the photo
