May 28 Racing Selections
With Black Caviar suffering a minor injury setback and Peter Moody sending her to the spelling paddock to prepare for the spring, the Doomben 10,000 loses some of its lustre for anyone not involved in the remaining entrants for the race (especially the connections of Hay List, who now find themselves with the 3s-on favourite for a Group 1 race!). Tips for this weekend cover the May 28 meetings at Caulfield, Doomben and Morphetville.
Results for May 21
Invalid tips (due to scratchings and/ or track ratings that were outside the prescribed range)
Nil
Tips where the SP was $5.50 or less
Flemington – At The Heads ($4.40 SP) – unplaced
Rosehill – Tullamore ($4.60) – unplaced
Rosehill – Tallow ($4.80) – unplaced
Doomben – Our Lukas ($4.80) – unplaced
Doomben – Listen Son ($4.40) – second
May 21 Results: Five selections, no winners
Overall Results: 52 selections, eleven winners, SP return of $41.80, profit on turnover (POT) = -20%
Tips where the SP was $6 or greater
May 21 Results: No selections, no winners
Overall Results: 34 selections, five winners, SP return of $42.00, profit on turnover (POT) = 24%
All tips
Overall Results: 86 selections, 16 winners, SP return of $83.80, profit on turnover (POT) = -3%
Rules
(1) A ‘track rating range’ for which the tip will be considered valid will accompany selections.
(2) Results refer to a win-only bet at the bookmakers’ starting price (SP) divided into two groups– those where the SP is $5.50 or less (Group 1), and those where the SP is $6 or greater (Group 2).
Saturday May 28
Caulfield (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)
Race 5 No. 4 Basil Da Man
Let’s keep this one simple. He has won all four of his starts to date, all of which have come over the 1000-metre journey he faces this time. His last start win was over Beyond Pardon, whom provides the strongest form reference among his competitors. Barrier four, 54.5 kgs, can position himself to suit in the run. What is not to like?
Race 6 No. 3 Believe ‘n Achieve
I’m going to take on the early (clear) elect Shadowfax and back the stable mate in Believe ‘n Achieve. At first glance, her recent form looks unflattering – four unplaced runs since a first-up victory. However, scratch the surface and you find that these races were at Listed, Listed, Group 2 (seventh, beaten 2.3 lengths) and Group 3 (fifth, beaten 3.0 lengths behind Budriguez) level, and therefore this race represents a significant drop in class. She was won eight of 20 races overall and eight of 17 races on tracks rated slow or better. She also has form at the trip (two wins from six starts) and a race fitness edge over the favourite. I smell a boilover coming.
Race 8 No. 1 About Ready
I’m a big fan of this mare when she’s fresh from a spell – her first-up record stands at three wins and a third in the Group 3 Bobby Lewis Handicap last spring from just the five runs. Excluding runs on heavy tracks, her overall record stands at six wins and three placings from just 13 races. She picked up two wins at Listed level against the males last preparation and therefore isn’t harshly treated with 57.5 kgs against the mares in this race. Barrier 14 is not ideal, but if she can get across into a decent position in running, she will take a power of holding out.
Doomben (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)
Race 6 No. 6 Femina Fashion
She was a gallant fourth last start after leading until the last 50 metres and thus I’m going to stick with her this week. While she is yet to race over 2200 metres, her strong record over 2000 metres suggests that the slightly longer journey should well within her capacity. If she can get a nice trail behind the likely leader Mr Clangtastic and pop out in the home straight, I think she can hold off the later challenges.
Race 8 No. 2 Drenalin
He showed plenty of promise over the Queensland winter last year before heading to Melbourne in the spring and recording one win and two subpar performances. I think he is better than his Melbourne results suggested, and his record of two wins and a second placing from four first-up runs suggest that a strong showing is on the cards this weekend. He has also recorded two wins and a second placing from four runs at the distance and with Gold Trail compressing the weights for this race and allowing him to sneak in with only 56 kgs, I think he’ll be motoring home late and run over the top of them.
Morphetville (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)
Race 7 No. 2 Magical Pearl
Despite the size of the field I think there are only a few winning chances in this race, with many of the field either looking for a different class of race or a longer journey. In light of this, I’ve arrived at the top of the weights scale fairly quickly and found a proven gelding who sprints well fresh and competed strongly (without winning) last preparation, often at either black type level and/ or running strongly behind promising gallopers such as Spacecraft. His form is better than it appears on paper and therefore he is likely to represent value, especially as barrier five will enable him to race handy to the speed and give the race a significant shake in the home straight.
Thanks to Matt King/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo
