May 6 Racing Selections

With the Autumn carnival now in the books and the Queensland winter racing scene starting to wind up, racing tips this week will cover the Saturday May 6 meetings at Flemington and the Gold Coast (Hollindale Stakes and Gold Coast Guineas Day), as well as the Sunday May 7 meeting at Morphetville (SA Derby and Goodwood Handicap Day).

Results for April 30

Invalid tips (due to scratchings and/ or track ratings that were outside the prescribed range)

Nil

Tips where the SP was $5.50 or less

Hawkesbury – Sandberg ($4.00 SP) – third

Hawkesbury – Zingaling ($5.50) – unplaced

Hawkesbury – Mr Unforgettable ($4.00) – unplaced

Eagle Farm – Royal Reign ($2.80) – Won

Eagle Farm – Albert The Fat ($5.00) – unplaced

April 30 Results: Five selections, one winner, SP return of $2.80

Overall Results: 44 selections, eleven winners, SP return of $41.80, profit on turnover (POT) = -5%

Tips where the SP was $6 or greater

Caulfield – Amaethon ($8.00 SP) – third

April 30 Results: One selection, no winners

Overall Results: 28 selections, five winners, SP return of $42.00, profit on turnover (POT) = 50%

All tips

Overall Results: 72 selections, 16 winners, SP return of $83.80, profit on turnover (POT) = 16%

Rules

(1) A ‘track rating range’ for which the tip will be considered valid will accompany selections.

(2) Results refer to a win-only bet at the bookmakers’ starting price (SP) divided into two groups– those where the SP is $5.50 or less (Group 1), and those where the SP is $6 or greater (Group 2).

Here are the selections for this Saturday:

Saturday May 6

Flemington (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 6 No. 5 No Jurisdiction

To my mind, the key to this race will be the pull in the weights No Jurisdiction receives over Miss Bindi (3.5 kgs) and Royal Commands (2.5 kgs) from their last meeting on ANZAC Day at Flemington. On that day, No Jurisdiction was second up (he has only one win from 14 starts when either first or second up) and lumping 58.5 kgs – tomorrow he’ll be third up (five wins from 18 starts when third up or later into a preparation) and carrying only 54.5 kgs. That will do me.

Gold Coast (tips based on a track rating range of dead 4 to slow 7)

Race 6 No. 3 Rightfully Yours

I was all set to tip the very promising Thankgodyou’rehere in this race until he drew barrier 16 (likely to be 13 after emergencies are taken out), and have instead opted for Mick Price’s talented sprinter on his second trip to the Gold Coast. He has won five of his eight previous first-up runs (including a win at Listed level at Caulfield when resuming last spring) and from barrier one should be well placed in running on the tight-turning Gold Coast track.

Race 7 No. 1 Scenic Shot

Now an eight-year old, Scenic Shot seems to take a couple more runs to reach full race fitness these days, but his last two efforts have been terrific. He ran fourth behind Shocking (and in front of Heart of Dreams) in the Group 1 WFA Australian Cup and a late-charging win at Eagle Farm last start when lumbering 61 kgs off a six-week break. I think he can register a second Hollindale Stakes victory tomorrow.

Sunday May 7

Morphetville (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 5 No. 1 Majestic Music

She didn’t have the greatest of luck when carrying 58.5 kgs to fifth behind Goon Serpent last start over this distance and appeared to be genuinely unlucky when a close fourth (beaten 0.3 lengths) by Nakaaya at Group 2 level, again over the mile. A mare who takes a little while to reach peak form in her preparations (one win from 10 starts when first or second up, compared to five wins from 13 starts when third up or further into a preparation), there should be little in the way of excuses if she fails to fire on Sunday.

Race 7 No. 2 Response

While I have the utmost respect for stable mate Crystal Lily, I think it is the older of Matthew Ellerton’s two girls engaged in the race who will be saluting the judge first. A winner of the Group 1 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes in the spring, her last four starts have all been at Group 1 level, including a win over Beaded in the Sangster Stakes and a hopelessly luckless seventh in the Oakleigh Plate. The tempo of this race should be strong and thus I am leaning to the run-on style of Response, although it may be worth having a saver on Crystal Lily or better yet, taking a quinella with the two Ellerton girls.

Thanks to Matt King/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo