Melbourne Cup Preview

This time last year, I was steeling myself for the biggest bet of my life. Sitting in a dank hotel room on Toorak Road- no balcony and no room service- chewing slowly through a small bag of licorice all sorts, I was pondering when watermelon season actually starts. It had to be soon, but I couldn't be sure. But now is not the time to start contemplating watermelon season again. The point is I was in a state of absolute calmness. Well, absolute is a strong word, like illegal and winner and I'm not sure I can justify its use…but that's not important right now. I was as calm as any human with warm blood and a probable future of heart disease can be when the humidity is high and the deal is about to go down.

The rains were coming and the stars had aligned. Makybe Diva was a certainty and it's not often you can get away with using a word like that at Cup Time. Cab drivers don't like it and family members will seek retribution if the deal goes square…but sometimes, on those days when the sun sits right and the whiskey is smooth, certainty is The Right Word. And on Cup Day last year, it was the only word I cared to use…

And as I was swept along in the throng, feeling like death and soaked from the violent grey sky, I knew I was right. My only concern was getting to that press box. I had the credentials but you never know what some security freaks cranked on power will do when you flash The Pass. Most will nod politely and say something like "What's the hot tip, Chief?" or "You have a good day, Sir". But some…they'll argue and call you a liar and tell you that you're not welcome despite the fact you have a goddamn pass that says you are. "I am a member of the working press son and if you don't let me through, there is gonna be one hell of a stir…"

There's an old Albanian proverb- "After shaking hands with a Greek, count your fingers"- that I never really understood until that day. But when you deal with high-wired security on Cup Day, you soon identify with what the Albanians are thinking.

Having finally got to the press box-away from the hordes of wild beasts and the maddening noise-and found the complimentary beer stash, I had started to return to my original level of calmness. There was no adrenalin rush or nervous energy that you would normally associate with a large bet. No fast talking or punting high. Just the peaceful serenity of knowing you're right…

When the time for the deal came, I wandered to the big window overlooking the public enclosure and watched the swirling rain and directionless winds create havoc for the sea of frenzied humanity below. Fantastic. Makybe would love these brutal conditions. She was, of course, a warrior. I dialed my bookmaker, who seemed frazzled and nervous. When I backed Makybe Diva, he groaned. I told him it was a certainty and he muttered something or other but I think he knew. Makybe Diva would win and it would hurt him. He didn't wish me luck and refused to even say good bye.

I grabbed my coat and watched the race from the fence. I dig the rain. The horde had gone for shelter like snakes in a storm, but I enjoyed the space. And when she swept home on the fence, a winner at The Clock Tower, I cheered the mighty mare-not because of the bet, but because she was a champion. And I waited in the storm and clapped her home.

The mighty mare was a certainty and she, of course, saluted. My bookie wasn't answering calls that night but I knew where he lived, so payment wouldn't be a problem.

But this year, there is no certainty. There's not even any certainty that the favourite will run. Only Lee Freedman or Tony Santic can tell us whether Makybe Diva will be given a shot to etch her name as the greatest in Cup history. We won't know for sure until we wake up on Tuesday – waking up with the same giddy feeling that kids get on Christmas Day. But by my reckoning, she is a tens-on shot to run. And if she doesn't, it will be a national outrage that could result in spontaneous uprisings and vengeance seeking posse's who will settle for nothing but complete retribution.

If she runs, she'll probably win. She is the best stayer Australia has seen in decades. When The Great Scorer comes to write against Makybe Diva's name, she will be remembered with Wakeful and Sunline as the best mares to grace the Australian turf. Since her last Melbourne Cup, she has won the three great weight-for-age races on the Australian calendar-The Australia Cup, The Tancred and The Cox Plate. She is prepared by Australia's finest trainer and ridden by Australia's premier big race rider. She has drawn nicely. She has had virtually the same preparation as her previous two Melbourne Cup victories, substituting the Cox Plate for the Caulfield Cup this time around. And she only has 58 kilograms to carry.

At the weights, she has been thrown in. She has won everything and she is against a very weak Melbourne Cup field. There is no doubt she is the best weighted horse in The Cup. She is a deserved favourite and at five-to-two or longer, a very good bet. But she is no certainty…

She has been geared to the Cox Plate…she does have 58 kilograms…she is a year older…but to my eye, she is the best and if she runs, she is the one to be on. This race appears to be her destiny and as Dick Nixon said, "Once you're in the stream of history you can't get out".

Having said all that, this year, she can be beat. They'll all be gunning for her and the great uncertainty of racing has bought many a champion undone before. But she will still be going around a winner for me.

Aside from Makybe Diva, there are only six horses who can win it…

According to the betting community, the best chance to kill the queen, as they say, is the lightly weighted Leica Falcon. You are either blind or have spent too much time in the cupboard if you missed his slashing Caulfield Cup run. He came from last and in trouble to get beaten just over a length. His sectionals were amazing and if we are to take the Caulfield Cup as the preeminent Melbourne Cup trial and the fact he has only 50 kilos on his back, Leica Falcon is a definite chance. His draw of twenty also suits perfectly. The big query with The Corowa Comet is class…and at the short odds currently available, I'm not prepared to have my kick on it to find out.

Take nothing away from the Caulfield Cup winner Railings though. He was as strong as on ox on heat when he passed the post. I didn't think he could win The Metrop and he bolted in. I didn't think he could win the Caulfield Cup and he made a fool of me. I'm still no mark for the horse, but I won't make the mistake of saying he can't win the Cup. I don't need another stomping.

If I was to bet a horse out of the Caulfield Cup, Eye Popper would be the one. He was tough and despite the fact he will still be ridden by the same joker who kept him four wide the trip, he seems like he will try all day. That is more than you can say for half the field. And he has beaten Makybe Diva. If only he was ridden by a jockey…

The one that seems to have snuck under the fence and through the back door is Vinnie Roe. He'll be there when the whips are cracking. The Pride of Ireland has not been spoken of much this campaign but he meets Makybe Diva two kilos better at the weights and if the rains continue, he is the best chance without a doubt to beat her. He oozes class. To me, Vinnie Roe, if ridden in any sort of competent manner (which he was not last year) could bolt in, even from the wide draw. The $10 available now is a great price. At that price, the only option, as the old timers say, is to fill thy boots.

If you're after a rough one, the New Zealander Xcellent looks the best. The current price of $21 is definitely overs. This horse has decimated his rivals in the shaky isles and his run in the Cox Plate was not without merit. Simply, he was butchered. Michael Coleman deserved to be taken out back and shot like a mangy dog. I don't think he could have beaten Makybe Diva but he was never given a chance. Coleman was lucky to get out of Moonee Valley alive. Nevertheless, Xcellent looks like good value and has a sprint that brings back memories of Kiwi. He's a good bet.

The last hope, to my eye, is Lachlan River. His run in the Mackinnon was a cracker. It was the best Cup trial on Saturday. He will be a price and looks a nice each way bet. The only concern is his stop-start preparation. After the Caulfield Cup, he was turned out and it was decided he would not contest the Cup this year. But things turned around and here he is. And he should be there in the finish.

To my eye, they are the only hopes. Demerger is no Subzero and will more than likely live up to the typical Adelaide Cup standard. Dizelle is running more like a trotter than a galloper. Mr Celebrity ran like a tired horse on Saturday and will struggle with the quick back-up. Strasbourg will be unders and can't be backed. Of the roughies, I would suggest only Bazelle-a dour type who will stay until dawn and still ask for another- would be the only hope of a blow-out.

So, if she runs, I think she'll win. Maybe there's more heart than head in that selection, but then again, maybe not. She is a champion and you should never bet against a champion. Even fiends like Dick Nixon and Nick Gleeson couldn't disagree with that kind of straight up logic.

Tedeschi's Tips

1. Makybe Diva
2. Vinnie Roe
3. Xcellent
4. Eye Popper