November 19 Racing Selections
Tips for this weekend cover the November 19 meetings at Ascot (featuring the Group 1 Railway Stakes and Group 1 Winterbottom Stakes), Moonee Valley and Warwick Farm.
Results for November 12 meetings
Invalid tips (due to scratchings and/ or track ratings that were outside the prescribed range)
Nil
Tips where the SP was $5.50 or less
Nil
November 12 Results: No selections
Overall Results: 98 selections, 18 winners, SP return of $63.15, SP POT = -32%, Luxbet BOB return of $73.60, BOB POT = -21%
Tips where the SP was $6 or greater
Sandown Hillside – Doubtful Jack ($13.00 SP) – third
Sandown Hillside – Ginga Dude ($11.00) – unplaced
Sandown Hillside – Miss Bindi ($9.50) – unplaced
November 12 Results: Three selections, no winners
Overall Results: 102 selections, ten winners, SP return of $79.50, SP POT = -22%, Luxbet BOB return of $92.00, BOB POT = -10%
All tips
Overall Results: 200 selections, 28 winners, SP return of $146.65, SP POT = -27%, Luxbet BOB return of $170.00, BOB POT = -15%
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Rules
(1) A ‘track rating range’ for which the tip will be considered valid will accompany selections.
(2) Results refer to a win-only bet at the bookmakers’ starting price (SP) or Luxbet’s ‘Best of Best’ (BOB) price divided into two groups– those where the SP is $5.50 or less (Group 1), and those where the SP is $6 or greater (Group 2).
Saturday November 19
Ascot (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)
Race 8 No. 9 He’s Remarkable
I think the Kiwi galloper is really nicely in here on the 53 kilo limit – as the exploits of Playing God over the autumn and spring have proven, there is still a gap between the best Western Australian horses and the best on the eastern seaboard. He has three wins and three placings from six starts at the distance, including a strong win with 59 kilos on Emirates Stakes day and a placing (when favourite) for the Group 2 Waterford Crystal Mile at his prior run.
Race 9 No. 7 Rarefied
Sister Madly carried with her one of the strongest form lines of the spring (through the likes of Sepoy and More Joyous) and thus the Peter Snowden galloper who ran a narrow second to her in the Group 2 Salinger Stakes should prove very hard to hold out. He appears to have taken no ill effects from an 18 month layoff, with his two runs back resulting in a second placing at Listed level and the aforementioned run at Flemington.
Moonee Valley (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)
Race 5 No. 3 Fabulist
She looks to have come back in excellent order this preparation, with a fourth placing behind Satin Shows in a strong mares race on Caulfield Cu day followed up by a win at Morphettville a fortnight ago. A winner of two races from four attempts at the distance (including her last start win), she tends to get back in her races, so the wide barrier should be no great hindrance. With the speed likely to be solid, she should get her chance in the straight.
Warwick Farm (tips based on a track rating range of dead 4 to slow 7)
Race 4 No. 3 Off And Laughing
A mare with three wins and three placings from nine starts (which improves to three wins and three placings from only seven starts below black type level), she looks really well placed in a BM80 race. She resumed in good order with a strong third to Satin Shoes and Rue Maple at Caulfield and drops substantially in class here. Five weeks between runs is likely to suit her given her ability to ruin well fresh and she has two wins and a placing from four runs over the 1200 metres.
Race 6 No. 1 Title
His two runs this time in have been excellent, winning the Listed Lighting Handicap and Randwick over Rarefied and then running second with 59 kilos in a Listed race at Hawkesbury where he gave the winner 5.5 kilos. His front running style is well suited at Warwick Farm (he’s a previous winner at the track), and with the other leading contender (Scarf) entering this 1400-metre event first-up, I think the race fit top weight can take the spoils.
Race 8 No. 2 Chateau Fort
A complete forgive run first up at Flemington when he blew the start and Dwayne Dunn was lucky to stay aboard. He now drops in grade to a BM80 outside of the carnival but only rises 0.5 kilos in weight. His Brisbane winter form was excellent, winning a Group 3 race at just his fourth career start, and the recent Brisbane performances of Fillydelphia have further franked the quality of those form references. In a big field with likely strong pace to ensue, he should be rattling home late.
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Thanks to Matt King/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo
