October 22 Racing Selections
Tips for this weekend cover the October 22 meetings at Moonee Valley (featuring the Group 1 Cox Plate and the appearance of Black Caviar in the Group 2 Schweppes Stakes), Rosehill and Eagle Farm.
Results for October 15 meetings
Invalid tips (due to scratchings and/ or track ratings that were outside the prescribed range)
Nil
Tips where the SP was $5.50 or less
Randwick – Kanzan ($4.80 SP) – second
Randwick – Metallurgical ($5.50) – unplaced
October 15 Results: Two selections, no winners
Overall Results: 91 selections, 17 winners, SP return of $63.15, SP POT = -31%, Luxbet BOB return of $73.60, BOB POT = -19%
Tips where the SP was $6 or greater
Caulfield – Varenna Miss ($6.50 SP) – unplaced
Caulfield – Mighty High ($8.00) – unplaced
October 15 Results: Two selections, no winners
Overall Results: 89 selections, nine winners, SP return of $72.50, SP POT = -19%, Luxbet BOB return of $84.50, BOB POT = -5%
All tips
Overall Results: 180 selections, 26 winners, SP return of $135.65, SP POT = -25%, Luxbet BOB return of $158.10, BOB POT = -12%
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Rules
(1) A ‘track rating range’ for which the tip will be considered valid will accompany selections.
(2) Results refer to a win-only bet at the bookmakers’ starting price (SP) or Luxbet’s ‘Best of Best’ (BOB) price divided into two groups– those where the SP is $5.50 or less (Group 1), and those where the SP is $6 or greater (Group 2).
Saturday October 22
Moonee Valley (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)
Race 7 No. 8 Silver Grecian
His debut run in Australia resulted in a solid sixth in the Group 1 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes, finishing alongside Luen Yat Forever (who subsequently franked the form line in the Group 1 Toorak Handicap) and Dao Dao. At his last Hong Kong start in July he won over this distance and importantly should position himself close to the lead in a race bereft of any obvious pace.
Race 8 No. 4 Glass Harmonium
Helmet and he look the two most likely leaders and with nine of the past 15 Cox Plate winners being aged five or older, I’m leaning towards to the six year-old stallion here. Despite not posting a victory to date this spring, his three runs this time have been excellent, highlighted by a narrow defeat at the hands of December Draw in the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes last time out. He is making his Moonee Valley debut but has worked well in two track gallops at the course and his front running style should be well suited at this venue.
Race 9 No. 1 Lady Lynette
This is a real ‘horses for courses’ tip – she has two wins and three placings from five attempts at the Moonee Valley mile, including two consecutive wins in this race and a third behind King’s Rose and Pinker Pinker (both running in the Cox Plate) in the Group 2 Stocks Stakes three starts back. She subsequently won the Group 2 Blazer Handicap at Flemington and then got into an awkward spot when unplaced at Caulfield (a track she has a poor record at) last start. Forgive that run and she is in this up to her ears.
Rosehill (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)
Race 6 No. 16 Renewed Vitality
After trying his luck at Group 1 level last start and finishing down the track in the Epsom Handicap, he returns to a much more suitable grade of racing here and remains on the handicap limit (which for this race is 53 kilos). Two starts back he defeated the raging favourite for this race in Somepin Anypin (though he does meet that galloper 2.5 kilos worse off this time) and prior to that ran second to subsequent Group 2 winner King Lionheart. He should be handy the speed in running and prove very tough to hold out.
Eagle Farm (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)
Race 5 No. 1 Carry The Clubs
After two runs over longer distances, he finally returns to his optimum journey of 1000 metres, over which he has a record of 11 wins and nine placings from 23 starts. Three starts back he ran at this track and distance and was a touch unlucky when rushing home late and narrowly failing to catch Bazooka. With a slightly better draw today and early speed aplenty among his competitors, I like his chances of overpowering them all in the home straight.
Race 7 No. 6 Celtic Dancer
After competing in Group level races for much of the Queensland winter carnival, his first-up run was excellent when third to Falino (beaten less than a length) after being wide with no cover for much of the journey. A previous winner at this distance, he ran second to Military Rose in the Group 3 Gold Coast Guineas and was beaten only one and half lengths in the Listed Daybreak Lover Handicap at this track and distance despite drawing barrier 17 that day. With a win and a third from two second-up runs, barrier five and 53 kilos, I think he is very well placed in this race.
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Thanks to Matt King/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo
