October 8 Racing Selections
Tips for this weekend cover the October 8 meetings at Caulfield (featuring the Group 1 Caulfield Guineas, the Group 1 Yalumba Stakes and the return of mighty mare Black Caviar in the Group 2 Schillaci Stakes) and Rosehill.
Results for September 30 to October 2 meetings
Invalid tips (due to scratchings and/ or track ratings that were outside the prescribed range)
Nil
Tips where the SP was $5.50 or less
Randwick – Lamasery ($5.50 SP) – third
Flemington – Niwot ($3.80) – second
September 30 to October 2 Results: Two selections, no winners
Overall Results: 87 selections, 17 winners, SP return of $63.15, SP POT = -27%, Luxbet BOB return of $73.60, BOB POT = -15%
Tips where the SP was $6 or greater
Moonee Valley – Zaratone ($8.00 SP) – unplaced
Randwick – Pinker Pinker ($9.00) – second
Flemington – Response ($8.50) – third
Flemington – Glass Harmonium ($8.00) – second
September 30 to October 2 Results: Four selections, no winners
Overall Results: 84 selections, nine winners, SP return of $72.50, SP POT = -14%, Luxbet BOB return of $84.50, BOB POT = +1%
All tips
Overall Results: 171 selections, 26 winners, SP return of $135.65, SP POT = -21%, Luxbet BOB return of $158.10, BOB POT = -8%
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Rules
(1) A ‘track rating range’ for which the tip will be considered valid will accompany selections.
(2) Results refer to a win-only bet at the bookmakers’ starting price (SP) or Luxbet’s ‘Best of Best’ (BOB) price divided into two groups– those where the SP is $5.50 or less (Group 1), and those where the SP is $6 or greater (Group 2).
Saturday October 8
Caulfield (tips based on a track rating range of dead 4 to slow 7)
Race 3 No. 12 My Scotsgrey
I really like the form lines (December Draw a month ago at Caulfield, Mourayan and Niwot last Sunday at Flemington) through his first two runs in Australia, and the six-day back up from the Listed Bart Cummings is also encouraging. He is a previous winner over this distance and has a win over 3200 metres on his CV, so he will run out the trip without question.
Race 5 No. 6 Sincero
How quickly did everyone jump off this bandwagon? I am finally about to jump onto it. WFA-proven horses to be unplaced when carrying 56.5 kilos or more in a Doncaster or Epsom include Lonhro and Sunline – heady company indeed. Barrier one certainly didn’t seem to do him any favours in the Epsom, as he took a long time to find clear running room. Prior to that, he won 11 of 15 races including a Stradbroke Handicap and George Main Stakes, so his class should not be in question. Whilst untried over 2000 metres, being by Umatilla out of a Prego mare he is bred to get over such a distance. Importantly though, it is the lack of obvious speed in this race that may turn into a test of tactical speed, something this horse has in spades.
Race 6 No. 6 King’s Rose
Her last 11 runs have yielded eight wins and a second, with the two unplaced runs being at 2100 metres and 2400 metres. She has three starts at 1600 metres for three wins and is unbeaten since transferring to the Peter Moody stables. Her last start win was in the Group 2 Stock Stakes over Pinker Pinker, who ran a very creditable second in the Epsom Handicap last Saturday. She has barrier one and is reasonably in at the weights with 54.5 kilos. Is there anything not to like about her chances? I say no.
Race 8 No. 1 Dubleanny
Her two runs this preparation have been better than they looked on paper – beaten only 1.5 lengths when seventh first-up, she settled at the tail of the field second-up and never threatened in a race dominated by horses racing closer to the speed. She has won nine of 18 races in her career to date, five of eight races when third-up or further into a preparation and seven of 12 races over this distance (including a win over 1200 metres at Caulfield). Pot her in this race at your own peril.
Rosehill (tips based on a track rating range of dead 4 to slow 7)
Race 6 No. 4 Shannara
The form through the Group 3 Gold Pendant of two weeks ago looks the best reference for this race, thus I am going with the best finisher form that race to be backing up here. A sister to Group 1 winners Lonhro and Niello, her fourth placing when resuming was an excellent effort considering she has never won in five first-up attempts (but won three of nine races later into her preparations). Her autumn campaign included a win in the Listed Dark Jewel and a third placing in the Group 2 Emancipation Stakes, so she is up to the task from a class perspective. She has never been unplaced at the distance and never been unplaced second-up from a spell. In a race with class and form queries over quite a few runners, she ticks all of the right boxes.
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Thanks to Matt King/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo
