On The Punting of Politics
“In politics, strangely enough, the best way to play your cards is to lay them face upwards on the table”
-H.G Wells
With that simple line, the quirky H.G Wells layed out how to attack politics from a punting perspective. This is how politics, on the whole, is generally played. When it comes to issues like leadership and electoral victory, very rarely is it a game of smoke and mirrors, cloaks and daggers. The way to win these political battles is by winning the people through winning the spin. It is the only way to gain and solidify power and that is the name of the game. In issues of leadership and electoral victory, all is often as it seems.
This is a tough nut to deal with. When we are raised to distrust and denounce our politicians, view them as liars and grubs, it is hard to accept politicians and their actions at face value. It only gets harder when you see that those who enter the political fray are the rich, the mollycoddled, the power hungry, the weak of mind, the low self-esteemed, the drunk and the foolish. And these dealings in cynicism when contemplating politicians are fair and truthful, on the whole.
But when dealing with political issues that are so public and so cut-and-dry you can publicly bet on them, you have to stomp these thoughts and keep them comatose until a bet is researched and made. It is necessary because if we don’t believe what we see in electoral politics, issues are overanalyzed and we start believing in things that don’t exist. When you’ve reached this point, you’ve well and truly missed the turn-off to Profit Road…
When gambling on politics, take what you read and what you see as what is happening. The assumption is as crucial as having a bank to back your man.
On the morning when Morris Iemma was due to become leader of the NSW Labor Party and thus, Premier, it was front page of the Daily Telegraph that he would be the man. He was to win uncontested. Carl Scully had withdrawn from the race. Iemma was the man and everybody-in the game and out- knew it. Everybody except a prominent Australian betting firm. When I called to see what I could get at the $2.60 seemingly on offer, I was told I was set. I then backed him at every price to $1.70, when they pulled the market down. $2.60 is a pretty decent price for a certainty, as is $1.70 come to think about it.
That is right. A bookmaking firm offered $2.60 on a man who would win unopposed. It is pretty damn rare that you stumble upon these opportunities, that is for sure and certain. I’d hit the end of the rainbow…
There is no certainty, like a certainty in politics. A certainty in politics is as good a thing as you will ever find. The numbers are so graspable, the outcomes so clear. Take this as gospel, the Gospel according to The Wolf.
For outsiders and those who don’t mix with politicians or prostitutes, simply watching the news and reading the newspaper and maintaining a basic understanding of the political systems you intend to bet upon will often make the nut. Just take the information and bet accordingly. Don’t deal or bet on speculation. Gamble on cold hard facts and most importantly, numbers. When you’ve got the numbers in politics, you’ve got the nuts. And any card player worth his loud mouth and cheap visor will tell you to always bet the nuts hard.
For insiders with half a brain and a gut for the punt, well, the sky is the limit as to the amount of money you are set to make betting politics. Bookmakers, colleagues, pundits…everyone is a mark.
Many years ago, in an Australian house of parliament, I wandered the hallways as a paid advisor clawing for power, influence and a good bet. The woman I worked for was kind-hearted but mad, and in need of sound advice. And who better to dish out sound advice than fiery young writer who has a penchant for profound oratory, wild times and a breakfast Bloody Mary.
Your youthful author prowled the halls on a free rein, bound only by self decency and the finite nature of politics. I scurried between opposition offices and government suites with the single-minded goal of getting what I wanted, portrayed as what my employer wanted. Secret meetings in the library, photo copies and high level brain storms, bi-partisan trysts, tri-partisan trysts, lying, leaking, desperate folk and rich pricks hammering and buying their issue and your time…
The fun was fast, the pace furious and the ramifications deep. Politics is not a game for the weak of heart or the soft bellied or those without the nose for power, an eye for detail and an ear that is always listening.
Good times. Financial prosperous ones at any rate. Betting on legislation. On question time. On speech lengths and yawns. On the daily use of words such as lunky or swizzle or quinkydink . On late nights, after a dinner of red wine and laughs, advisors sat in the chamber betting heavily among themselves on such noble markets as how many times a particular member will be warned for drunken musings and which member will be the first to miss a division. When your business is political advice, there are a thousand propositions to deal with…
Whilst playing the props against desperate and stupid political folk is high minded and profitable, there is money to be made in betting legitimate bookmakers on more conventional markets. Most firms will offer you betting on the next Australian Federal Election, giving you $1.60 on the bear-certainty of four more years of right wing paternalism.
Most will also offer betting on who will be leading the coalition come next election or next year or next week. Anybody who is of the opinion that anybody other than our fearless leader will be Australian PM for at least the next three years, my details are readily available and my bet size will be big. Long term markets on U.S and British political markets are also common and often offer substantial value.
Election time, for political junkies and gamblers, is a halcyon, deeply spiritual time where opportunities are analysed and seized. There is so much choice that there will inevitably be some mispricing. Every seat, every contest…
When some seats never change hands and some seats never will, nearly any price is over the odds. To those lucky enough to get a multi on seat betting during an election…kudos, kudos to you.
Betting on politics is simple. Don’t overanalyze and don’t over-think. Find the certainty and bet it heavily.
That, right and left wingers, is that.