Racing’s Kiss of Death – February 23

Filed in Horse Racing, The Sting's Racing Selections by on February 21, 2013

This week’s selections cover the February 23 meetings at Caulfield (featuring the Group 1 Blue Diamond Stakes and Group 1 Oakleigh Plate) and Warwick Farm (featuring the Group 2 Apollo Stakes). As an aside, while Perfectly Stunning and Upshot both went around at $5.50 SP last week (and thus are excluded from results below), both were available at $6 or greater for much of betting – indeed, Perfectly Stunning had an official top fluctuation of $7.00, while $8.50 was available an hour before the jump. Hopefully you had something on her!

Results for February 16 selections

Tips which were either scratched, outside the prescribed track conditions or too short in price

Scratched – nil

Track outside prescribed range – nil

Odds too short (less than $6 SP) – Perfectly Stunning, Upshot

Tips where the SP was in the $6-$9.50 range (1 unit bets)

Rosehill – Riva De Lago ($9.00 SP) – Won

February 16 results:   1 selection, 1 unit bet, 1 winner, no placings, SP return of 9.00 units, BOB return of 9.00 units

2013 results:  6 selections, 6 units bet, 1 winner, 1 placing, SP return of 9.00 units, BOB return of 9.00 units

Tips where the SP was in the $10+ range (0.5 unit bets)

Flemington – Langridge Street ($12.00 SP) – unplaced

February 16 results:  1 selections, 0.5 units bet, no winners, no placings

2013 results: 7 selections, 3.5 units bet, 1 winner, no placings, SP return of 7.50 units, BOB return of 8.40 units.

Overall Results

February 16:  2 selections, 1.5 units bet, 1 winner, no placings, SP return of 9.00 units, BOB return of 9.00 units

2013:  13 selections, 9.5 units bet, 2 winners, 1 placing, SP return of 16.50 units, BOB return of 17.40 units.

 

Saturday February 23

Caulfield (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 2 No. 10 Now You Know

  • His overall fist-up form reads poorly, but subtract the first two starts of his career and he has a second placing from one subsequent first-up start, as well as three wins and three seconds from nine subsequent career runs in total.
  • Last preparation he won when second-up over this distance, defeating Shanghai Warrior and Dany The Fox. He went on to run second to (subsequent Group 1 winner) Fat Al at Group 3 level, so his form lines are outstanding for an RB95 race.
  • He has drawn wide in gate 10, but with limited on-speed rivals he may be able to cross with relative ease.

Race 8 No. 2 Woorim

  • The speed in this race should be pretty hectic with the likes of Barakey, Sea Lord, Adebisi, Mrs Onassis and Shamal Wind all going forward, so I’m looking to the late swoopers.
  • He has won all three previous starts over 1100 metres, including this race last year (when carrying 55.5 kilos, or 2.5 kilos less than this year).
  • He is an excellent first-up horse, winning four of eight such races, compared to seven winds from 34 races thereafter.
  • Barrier 13 should pose no problem, as he will get back in the field anyway – if anything, it will prevent him from being bundled up behind tiring horses near the fence in the home straight.

Warwick Farm (tips based on a track rating range of dead 4 to slow 7)

Race 6 No. 1 Shoot Out

  • He won the Group 1 George Main Stakes at WFA when first-up last preparation, and this is an easier first-up assignment (Group 2, 1400 metres) than that race was.
  • He is an excellent fresh horse more generally, with five wins and four placings from 11 starts when first or second-up, compared to four wins and six placings from 21 starts thereafter.
  • His only previous run at Warwick Farm resulted in a win, while he has two wins and four placings from eight starts at the distance.

Making The Nut is very pleased to have Luxbet on board as a sponsor of the site again in 2013.

Luxbet offer a wide variety of bet types when it comes to thoroughbred racing. In particular, for something as simple as a win-only bet on any given race, there are a number of different odds options that can be taken. For reasons I’ve previously articulated in some detail, their ‘Best of Best’ odds option is my personal favourite. You can certainly do a lot better than the SP when you’re betting with Luxbet.

Thanks to Vince Caligiuri/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo

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