Racing’s Kiss of Death – March 22 and 23 Selections

Filed in Horse Racing, The Sting's Racing Selections by on March 21, 2013

This week’s selections cover the March 22 meeting at Moonee Valley (featuring Black Caviar in the Group 1 Williams Reid Stakes), as well as the March 23 meetings at Caulfield and Rosehill (featuring three Group 1 races – the Ranvet Stakes, Canterbury Stakes and Coolmore Classsic).

Results for March 15 and 16 selections

Tips which were either scratched, outside the prescribed track conditions or too short in price

Scratched – nil

Track outside prescribed range – nil

Odds too short (less than $6 SP) – Unchain My Heart, Livigno, Chateau Margaux, Thy

Tips where the SP was in the $6-$9.50 range (1 unit bets)

Moonee Valley – Freereturn ($7.50 SP) – unplaced

Bendigo – Jet Away ($6.00 SP, $8.00 BOB) – Won

March 15 and 16 results:   2 selections, 2 units bet, 1 winner, no placings, SP return of 6.00 units, BOB return of 8.00 units

2013 results:  11 selections, 11 units bet, 2 winners, 3 placings, SP return of 15.00 units (36% PoT), BOB return of 17.00 units (55% PoT)

Tips where the SP was in the $10+ range (0.5 unit bets)

Nil

March 15 and 16 results:  no selections, no units bet

2013 results: 9 selections, 4.5 units bet, 2 winners (1 dead heat), no placings, SP return of 10.50 units (133% PoT), BOB return of 11.70 units (160% PoT)

Overall Results

March 15 and 16:  2 selections, 2 units bet, 1 winner, no placings, SP return of 6.00 units, BOB return of 8.00 units

2013:  20 selections, 15.5 units bet, 4 winners (1 dead heat), 3 placings, SP return of 25.50 units (65% PoT), BOB return of 28.70 units (85% PoT)

 

Friday March 22

Moonee Valley (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 5 No. 1 Kulgrinda  

  • She loves the Valley – five wins from eight starts at the track, including five from seven starts at the track and distance.
  • She is also an excellent fresh horse – five wins and two seconds from eight runs when either first or second-up, compared to three wins and two seconds from 13 races thereafter.
  • With a hot speed likely, her get back/ run on style will be well suited.

 

Saturday March 23

Caulfield (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 4 No. 7 Dubawi Gold

  • His last start win was strong at Bendigo, and he drops five kilos in weight (to three under the limit for this race) after the claim.
  • His only two previous runs over 1400 metres were the last start win (over Hotham Heights) and a second placing at Flemington where he finished between Dusty Star and Utah Saints – that’s a form line which could stand up in a race like this.
  • His three main rivals in this race (Under The Eiffel, British General and Sophie’s Spirit) have a combined record at Caulfield of no wins and five placings from 14 starts.

Race 6 No. 5 Undeniably

  • His last two efforts at Group 1 level (a pair of fourth placings, beaten 1.9 lengths in the Oakleigh Plate and 3.2 lengths in the Newmarket Handicap) are outstanding form for a Listed race.
  • His five previous runs at Caulfield have included a Listed level win at this distance, a second to Catapulted and the aforementioned fourth in the Oakleigh Plate.
  • Overall, he has three wins from nine starts over this trip, compared to one win from 10 starts at all other distances.

Rosehill (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 1 No. 3 See The World

  • His first-up run (seventh, beaten 3.8 lengths) was forgivable when you consider that he carried 60 kilos and has poor first-up stats (no wins and three placings from six starts, compared to seven wins and five placings from 20 starts thereafter).
  • He is very strong at Rosehill, with three wins and two placings from seven starts at the track, including two wins and two placings from six attempts and the track and distance.
  • Three starts back he ran third behind subsequent Oakleigh Plate winner Mrs Onassis when conceding her two kilos – she would be favourite if she were in this race with 54 kilos.

Race 3 No. 5 Single

  • He has yet to win in three races this preparation, but I think he can be forgiven this – he carried 59.5 kilos first up, ran second to Warwick Farm specialist Havana Rey second-up and struck a heavy track with 58 kilos and a muddling tempo last start.
  • Subtract his runs on heavy tracks and he has six wins and two seconds from 11 career starts.
  • He has won five of his eight previous races at Rosehill, including this race last year (with only 1.5 kilos less than he has to carry this time).

Race 7 No. 5 Appearance

  • She was terrific first-up when narrowly beaten at Listed level when carrying 59.5 kilos on a heavy track, then hit her usual flat spot second-up (she now has four second-up runs for no wins and one placing).
  • She has only run three career races when third-up or further into a preparation thus far, but they include two victories, one of which came in the Group 1 Myer Classic (she meets the likes of Streama, Red Tracer and Pear Tart all better at the weights here for having beaten them soundly in that race).
  • The early speed in this race is likely to be strong, giving her every chance to run home over the top of them.

Thanks to Vince Caligiuri/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo

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