Racing’s Kiss of Death – March 9

Filed in Horse Racing, The Sting's Racing Selections by on March 7, 2013

This week’s selections cover the March 9 meetings at Flemington (featuring the Group 1 Australian Cup and Group 1 Newmarket Handicap) and Warwick Farm (featuring the Group 1 Chipping Norton Stakes).

Results for March 2 selections

Tips which were either scratched, outside the prescribed track conditions or too short in price

Scratched – nil

Track outside prescribed range – Single, Pelicano, Lady’s Angel

Odds too short (less than $6 SP) – nil

Tips where the SP was in the $6-$9.50 range (1 unit bets)

Flemington – Glows ($7.00 SP) – third

Flemington – Ready To Rip ($9.00) – second

March 2 results:   2 selections, 2 units bet, no winners, 2 placings

2013 results:  8 selections, 8 units bet, 1 winner, 3 placings, SP return of 9.00 units, BOB return of 9.00 units

Tips where the SP was in the $10+ range (0.5 unit bets)

Nil

March 2 results:  no selections

2013 results: 8 selections, 4 units bet, 1 winner, no placings, SP return of 7.50 units, BOB return of 8.40 units.

Overall Results

March 2:  2 selections, 2 units bet, no winners, 2 placings

2013:  16 selections, 12 units bet, 2 winners, 3 placings, SP return of 16.50 units, BOB return of 17.40 units.

 

Saturday March 9

Flemington (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 4 No. 2 Budriguez

  • He stepped up to WFA company last start and ran solidly, finishing third (splitting Mr Moet and Mawingo) in the Group 2 Peter Young Stakes.
  • He now returns to the mile, where he has five wins from six starts, including a win at Group 3 level at Caulfield two starts ago.
  • His record when third-up or further into a preparation is excellent, with eight wins and three placings from 16 starts.
  • He may well get an easy lead here (if Callanish and Dany The Fox both opt to take the sit) and prove hard to run down.

Race 7 No. 6 Mawingo

  • His second-up run (when fourth in the Group 2 Peter Young Stakes) seemed disappointing at first glance, but he has a history of ‘missing’ when second-up.
  • While his record when third-up or further into a preparation is limited (only four starts), it is also very good (two wins and a placing, compared to two wins and five placings from 11 starts when either first-up or second-up).
  • He also has an excellent record at 2000 metres, with two wins and a placing from four starts.

Race 8 No. 1 Spirit Song

  • Her form over a mile is excellent, with four wins and five placings (including a second in the Group 1 Toorak Handicap last spring) from 10 starts over the distance.
  • While she didn’t win a race last preparation, she ran second to Callanish (conceding him four kilos), second in the Toorak, second to Oasis Bloom and third to Star Of Giselle (conceding her 4.5 kilos).
  • Her first-up run was sound (sixth, but beaten only 1.4 lengths) and she tends to improve significantly from that (one win and no placings from five first-up runs, compared to six wins and nine placings from 21 runs thereafter).

Warwick Farm (tips based on a track rating range of dead 4 to slow 7)

Race 4 No. 12 Toffler

  • His overall record stands at three wins and three seconds from nine career starts, but improves to three wins and a second from five starts when his first-up runs are subtracted.
  • While he was unplaced when first-up with 58.5 kilos this preparation, he bounced back with a win at Canterbury when second-up.
  • He has two wins from three starts at the distance, including a win at his only previous start over this trip at Warwick Farm.
  • From barrier one and with only 54 kilos, he can roll forward and keep the likely favourite (Under The Sun) very honest.

Race 6 No. 7 Laser Hawk

  • I think you can forgive his first-up run on an immensely heavy track in the Apollo Stakes.
  • Remove that run and you’re left with six career starts for four wins and two placings, including a third to Mosheen and a win over Ocean Park (who has since won a Cox Plate, beating Shoot Out by almost five lengths), both at Group 1 level.
  • His two previous starts at a mile have led to a win and the aforementioned third to Mosheen, while they also double as his two previous second-up performances.
  • From barrier five he can race handy to the speed, which is often an advantage at Warwick Farm.

Race 8 No. 8 Didntcostalot

  • His first-up effort (seventh, beaten 3.4 lengths at Listed level) looks disappointing on paper, but he was trapped three wide with no cover for much of the run, thus I think he can be forgiven.
  • He has two wins and two seconds from six starts at the trip, including a win at his only previous run at Warwick Farm.
  • His second-up record is strong – three runs for a win, a second and a luckless unplaced run (beaten 2.3 lengths) behind Bel Sprinter at Group 3 WFA level, which is strong form for a BM95 race.

Thanks to Vince Caligiuri/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo

Image:

Comments are closed.

«
»