Racing’s Kiss of Death – September 27 and 29
This week’s selections cover the September 27 meeting at Moonee Valley (featuring the Group 1 Moir Stakes) and the September 29 meeting at Caulfield (featuring the Group 1 George Main Stakes).
Results for September 14 selections
Tips which were either scratched, outside the prescribed track conditions or too short in price
Scratched – nil
Track outside prescribed range – nil
Odds too short (less than $6 SP) – It Is Written
Tips where the SP was in the $6-$9.50 range (1 unit bets)
Nil
September 14 results: no selections, no units bet
2013 results: 63 selections, 63 units bet, 13 winners, 17 placings, SP return of 98.50 units (56% PoT), BOB return of 109.10 units (73% PoT)
2011-2013 results: 200 selections, 200 units bet, 28 winners, 57 placings, SP return of 212.50 units (6% PoT), BOB return of 236.00 units (18% PoT)
Tips where the SP was in the $10+ range (0.5 unit bets)
Moonee Valley – Smarty Mac ($12.00 SP) – unplaced
Rosehill – Someday ($10.00) – unplaced
September 14 results: 2 selections, 1 units bet, no winners, no placings
2013 results: 34 selections, 17 units bet, 4 winners (1 dead heat), 3 placings, SP return of 24.00 units (41% PoT), BOB return of 27.75 units (63% PoT)
2011-2013 results: 103 selections, 51.5 units bet, 8 winners, 11 placings, SP return of 46.00 units (-11% PoT), BOB return of 53.90 units (5% PoT)
Overall Results
September 14 results: 2 selections, 1 units bet, no winners, no placings
2013: 97 selections, 80 units bet, 17 winners (1 dead heat), 20 placings, SP return of 122.50 units (53% PoT), BOB return of 136.85 units (71% PoT)
2011-2013: 303 selections, 251.5 units bet, 36 winners, 68 placings, SP return of 258.50 units (3% PoT), BOB return of 289.90 units (15% PoT)
Friday September 27
Moonee Valley (tips based on a track rating range of dead 4 to slow 7)
Race 5 No. 4 Eight Bills
- 2 wins from 3 starts at this track/ trip, races best fresh (14 starts for 6-0-2 first or second-up, 24 starts for 2-3-2 thereafter), speed should be strong enough for him to power home late.
Race 7 No. 5 Gris Caro
- 11 career starts for 5-2-3, 7 starts overseas at this distance for 4-2-0 (including a win at Listed level), won the Listed Balakalva Cup first-up in Australia, trainer Jake Stephen’s last up-and-coming runner in this race was an emphatic winner (Alcopop).
Sunday September 29
Caulfield (tips based on a track rating range of dead 4 to slow 7)
Race 4 No. 3 Hvasstan
- Solid first-up run (never been placed first-up) when fourth to Shoreham at Listed level over 1400 metres, 2 starts for 2 wins at this trip (including 1 at the track/ trip), beat home both Shoreham and Bass Strait (form through Desert Wizard) as a three-year-old.
Race 5 No. 8 Benneden
- Remove her first-up runs and she has 7 starts for 5-0-0 (makes her runner-up finish when resuming at Mornington look sound), 2 wins from 3 runs at Caulfield inlcuding one at the track/ trip, drawn well in barrier 2.
Race 8 No. 14 Bonaria
- Improves significantly with racing (10 starts for 1-0-2 first or second-up, 15 starts for 4-2-3 thereafter), ratled home for fourth placings in both of her 2 runs back this prep, beat Lidari (who beat Strawberry Boy in his last start) last prep at Flemington.
Thanks to Vince Caligiuri/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo