September 24 Racing Selections
Tips for this weekend cover the September 24 meetings at Caulfield (featuring the Group 1 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes), Rosehill (featuring the Group 2 Shannon Stakes), Doomben and Morphettville.
Results for September 17
Invalid tips (due to scratchings and/ or track ratings that were outside the prescribed range)
Nil
Tips where the SP was $5.50 or less
Caulfield – Panipique ($3.10 SP, $3.40 BOB) – Won
September 17 Results: One selection, one winner, SP return of $3.10, BOB return of $3.40
Overall Results: 79 selections, 16 winners, SP return of $57.65, SP POT = -27%, Luxbet BOB return of $67.60, BOB POT = -14%
Tips where the SP was $6 or greater
Caulfield – Gail ($11.00 SP) – unplaced
Caulfield – At First Sight ($9.00) – second
Caulfield – Gail ($15.00) – unplaced
Rosehill – Anabaa’s Legacy ($12.00) – second
Doomben – Poor Judge ($17.00) – unplaced
September 17 Results: Five selections, no winners
Overall Results: 79 selections, nine winners, SP return of $72.50, SP POT = -8%, Luxbet BOB return of $84.50, BOB POT = +7%
All tips
Overall Results: 158 selections, 25 winners, SP return of $130.15, SP POT = -18%, Luxbet BOB return of $152.10, BOB POT = -4%
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Rules
(1) A ‘track rating range’ for which the tip will be considered valid will accompany selections.
(2) Results refer to a win-only bet at the bookmakers’ starting price (SP) or Luxbet’s ‘Best of Best’ (BOB) price divided into two groups– those where the SP is $5.50 or less (Group 1), and those where the SP is $6 or greater (Group 2).
Saturday September 24
Caulfield (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)
Race 1 No. 3 Lady Mahler
After failing at Group 3 level and subsequently over an unsuitably long 1400-metre trip, she returned to her right class/ distance range last start at Rosehill and ran on nicely for second behind Tiger Tees. Now she returns to Caulfield where four starts ago she won her only attempt at this track/ distance combination, defeating the in-form Little Tycoon. I think she’s well placed to improve on her overall record of three wins and four seconds from 12 starts in this encounter.
Race 3 No. 12 Don Carlos
These imported horses sneak up on you don’t they? My Kingdom Of Fife, December Draw, Midas Touch, At First Sight and the like. Anyway, this gelding finished tenth on his Australian debut three weeks ago, but that happened to be at WFA level in the Group 2 Makybe Diva Stakes. At First Sight made the form from that race seem pretty strong last weekend and with Don Carlos sneaking into this race on the 53 kilo limit and Kerrin McEvoy sticking with him, I think the vast drop in both class and weight puts him right in the frame here.
Race 7 No. 1 First Command
Here is a quintessential ‘ticks all the boxes’ tip. Five wins from seven starts at Caulfield, including two from two over 1200 metres. A record of nine wins and two seconds from 15 starts on tracks rated dead or better. A proven ability to carry weight (he won the Listed Doveton Handicap easily over this track/ trip in January carrying 59 kilos). A very nice run first-up in Group 3 McEwen Stakes behind talented sprinter Buffering. Nicely drawn in barrier four to be positioned well in running. Whilst he is giving weight to a few talented types in this race, I’d feel pretty dumb if I overlooked all of the aforementioned points and he won at around the $6 or $7 quote, so I’m obliged to be with him.
Rosehill (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)
Race 7 No. 8 Ironstein
I’m quite a fan of Lamasery, but can’t have him as favourite when rising from 53 kilos to 57 and attempting 2400 metres for the first time. Instead I’m going with a proven (two wins, a third and a Brisbane Cup fourth from five starts at the trip) mile-and-a-half galloper in Ironstein. Following on from his Brisbane Cup fourth he won the Group 3 Tattersalls Cup at Eagle Farm, before being let up for almost two months and having three lead-up runs to this event. His last start fifth to Lamasery in the Group 3 Kingston Town Quality was a lovely run, as he had minimal running room until the final 200 metres before letting down strongly. With greater race fitness, the extra 400 metres in distance and (hopefully!) clearer running, I think he can turn the tables.
Race 8 No. 10 Ofcourseican
Gee she ripped home late when resuming in the Listed Sheraco Stakes a fortnight ago, and thus I’m happy to be with here again today. Shehas a strong record at Rosehill (two wins and two placings from fivestarts), on good tracks (five wins and three placings from nine starts) and second-up (two wins and a second from four starts). She was a winner at Listed level in the autumn and is well drawn in barrier four. She’s another ‘ticks all the boxes’ type that would frustrate me immensely if she won and I wasn’t with her, so here we are.
Doomben (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)
Race 8 No. 1 Faster Son
It’s hard to imagine that he is still eligible for a Class-6 race, or that he can get into one with only 54.5 kilos after the claim (drawing barrier one, no less). After winning six of his first seven runs, his last preparation was far better than it looked on paper. He was beaten 2.3 lengths in the Group 3 Rubiton Stakes at Caulfield, put in a complete ‘forgive’ run in the Group 1 Oakleigh Plate, struck wet tracks in both a Gold Coast quality and the Prime Ministers’ Cup and ran second to Azzaland in the Listed Bribie Handicap. Call me crazy, but that is one of the better form lines I’ve seen for a Class-6 galloper carrying only 54.5 kilos. If he doesn’t start favourite, I will be amazed.
Morphettville (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)
Race 5 No. 6 Tropic Thunder
His overall record stands at three wins and six placings from 12 starts, but subtraxct his first ever preparation and you have ten starts for three wins, six placings and a seventh placing behind Kulgrinda when first-up in the Listed Lightning Stakes (the Morphettville version, as distinct from the Group 1 Lightning Stakes at Flemington). Five starts ago he ran third to Southern Speed when giving her 4.5 kilos at the weights. Three starts ago he beat Kulgrinda in the Listed Redelva Stakes when giving her a kilo. Last start he went up to the 1250-metre journey at Morphettville Parks and won by almost two lengths. With 55 kilos after the claim and barrier one, I think he’s the one to be with.
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Thanks to Matt King/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo
