September 3 Racing Selections

Tips for this weekend cover the September 3 meetings at Flemington (featuring the Group 2 Makybe Diva Stakes) and Warwick Farm (featuring the Group 2 Chelmsford Stakes meeting that has been moved across from Randwick).

 

Results for August 27

Invalid tips (due to scratchings and/ or track ratings that were outside the prescribed range)

Nil

Tips where the SP was $5.50 or less

Caulfield – Miss Gai Flyer ($5.50 SP) – unplaced

Rosehill – Hume ($4.40) – unplaced

August 27 Results: Two selections, no winners

Overall Results: 71 selections, 15 winners, SP return of $54.55, SP POT = -23%, Luxbet BOB return of $64.20, BOB POT = -10%

Tips where the SP was $6 or greater

Caulfield – Simply Put ($11.00 SP) – third

Caulfield – Grand Duels ($13.00) – unplaced

August 27 Results: Two selections, no winners

Overall Results: 71 selections, eight winners, SP return of $64.00, SP POT = -10%, Luxbet BOB return of $74.80, BOB POT = +5%

All tips

Overall Results: 142 selections, 23 winners, SP return of $118.55, SP POT = -17%, Luxbet BOB return of $139.00, BOB POT = -2%

 

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Rules

(1) A ‘track rating range’ for which the tip will be considered valid will accompany selections.

(2) Results refer to a win-only bet at the bookmakers’ starting price (SP) or Luxbet’s ‘Best of Best’ (BOB) price divided into two groups– those where the SP is $5.50 or less (Group 1), and those where the SP is $6 or greater (Group 2).

 

Saturday September 3

Flemington (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 3 No. 8 Dreamaway  

This four year-old mare from Western Australia was outstanding in her first ever preparation, winning six races and finishing second twice from ten starts, including a win over Playing God in the Group 1 WA Derby to go with her WA Oaks victory. Interestingly, while she has switched stables this preparation (presumably to be based out of Victoria for the spring more than anything else), her jockey Willie Pike has retained the ride. She won over 1200 metres on debut so she’s capable of racing handy from a nice draw in barrier six and I fancy that she is in for a huge spring, starting with a win here.

Race 6 No. 14 Playing God

Another Perth raider that I have a lot of time for, he won the Group 1 Kingston Town at WFA level last spring in Perth and in the autumn was placed three times at Group 1 level (in the Australian Guineas, Australian Cup and WA Derby). He motored home late when running second to Idyllic Prince when resuming over 1300 metres, a run that should see him well primed for the 1600-metre journey second up. With six wins and seven placings from just 15 starts and almost $1 million in career earnings already, I think he can take the fight right up to likely odds-on favourite Lights Of Heaven and has a great chance of knocking her off.

Race 7 No. 4 Response

As you may have gathered by now, I have a propensity for tipping former Group 1 winners at this time of year, especially when they happen to be one of my four favourite mares currently racing (along with Black Caviar, Beaded and More Joyous). She has two victories at the elite level to her name already and was arguably unlucky not to have three, given that she ran a completely luckless seventh in the Oakleigh Plate in February behind Eagle Falls. She ran fourth in the Newmarket Handicap behind Black Caviar so the ‘straight six’ at Flemington should pose no hurdles, and with the speed likely to be solid I expect her to charging home late.

 

Warwick Farm (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 4 No. 8 Obsequious

In many regards this mare is pretty easy to figure out – three wins from four starts when first-up (her one miss was on debut), no wins and two seconds from eight runs when further into a preparation. Given that her three first-up victories include a win in the Group 2 Light Fingers Stakes over Red Tracer at Randwick and a win at this track/ distance, her credentials become hard to ignore. From barrier five and with only the 53 kilo limit on her back, I think she can camp behind the likely leader Zaratone and prove too strong in the shortish Warwick Farm straight.

Race 8 No. 8 Thankgodyou’rehere

I thought his first-up fifth placing behind Skytrain was full of merit, given that he jumped awkwardly and settled last as a consequence. Moreover, his record on slow and heavy tracks (one win and one placing from five starts) is clearly inferior to his record on good or dead tracks (six wins and four placings from 11 starts). Importantly, his chief competitors in this race all have a downside and can be taken on. Sincero has to lump 58 kilos first up from a spell. Neeson has drawn awfully in barrier 19 (likely to be barrier 15 after scratchings). Secret Admirer has drawn barrier one, which would be a blessing for many horses but may hinder her chances of getting clear running room in the straight.

 

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Thanks to Matt King/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo