September 8 Racing Selections

Tips for September 8 cover the meetings at Flemington (featuring the Group 2 Makybe Diva Stakes), Warwick Farm (featuring the Group 2 Chelmsford Stakes) and Doomben.

Final report card for 2011 and revised rules for 2012 tips

Results for September 1 selections

Tips which were either scratched, outside the prescribed track conditions or too short in price

Scratched – nil

Track outside prescribed range – nil

Odds too short (less than $6 SP) – Biancon Rose, Prince Pedro

Tips where the SP was in the $6-$9.50 range (1 unit bets)

Caulfield – Light Express ($8.00 SP) – unplaced

Caulfield – Green Moon ($8.00) – unplaced

Rosehill – Gangster’s Choice ($6.00) – third

Eagle Farm – Carry To Fortune($6.00) – third

September 1 results:   4 selections, no winners, 2 thirds

2012 results:  62 selections, 58 units bet, 5 winners, 22 seconds/  thirds, SP return of 38.00 units (POT = -39%), BOB return of 40.90 units (POT = -34%)

Tips where the SP was in the $10+ range (0.5 unit bets)

Nil

September 1 results:  No selections

2012 results:  17 selections, 8.5 units bet, 2 winners, 2 thirds, SP return of 11.00 units (POT = +29%), BOB return of 11.95 units (POT = +41%)

Overall Results

September 1:  4 selections, 4 unit bet, no winners, 2 thirds

2012:  75 selections, 66.5 units bet, 7 winners, 24 seconds/  thirds, SP return of 49.00 units (POT = -30%), BOB return of 52.85 units (POT = -25%)

 

Saturday September 8

Flemington (tips based on a track rating range of dead 4 to slow 7)

Race 3 No. 5 Mr Chard

• He has kicked off the preparation with two solid runs at WFA level (in a Group 3 and a Group 2) before dropping back in class here.
• He is a far better performer after a couple of runs back from a spell – his combined first and second-up record is 10 starts for a solitary third, but third-up or later in the preparation his record is six starts for three wins, two seconds and a fourth in the Group 1 Australian Guineas.
• He has two wins and a second from six starts at the distance, including a win and a second from three starts over the 1400 at Flemington.

Race 7 No. 8 Shanghai Warrior

• If Mosheen is ever going to be vulnerable, it is first up with 59 kilos, so I’m going to take her and We’re Gonna Rock (never won beyond 1100 metres) on here and go for a horse with an edge in race fitness.
• His last start win over Golden Archer in the Group 3 Aurie’s Star Handicap was excellent, and the runner-up has franked the form since with a convincing win of his own.
• He has five wins and three placings from nine starts overall.
• He has raced down the Flemington straight three times for two wins and a third.

Race 8 No. 5 Sea Galleon

• When you see a $2.30 favourite (Excluded) who has five wins from nine starts first or second-up but only one win from five later in a campaign (he’s third-up today), I think you’re obliged to take him on, so that’s what I’m going to do in opting for Sea Galleon.
• He ran an excellent third to Excluded last start at Moonee Valley, who he meets a kilo better at the weights this time.
• The rise in distance will be of more benefit to him (having won up to 2400 metres) than it will be to Excluded (who has placed twice beyond the 2000-metre mark, but only won up to 1800 metres).

 

Warwick Farm (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 5 No. 8 Lights Of Heaven

• A complete ‘forgive’ run from her first-up in the Warwick Stakes, where she was bundled away on the fence and never got a clear run at it.
• Her form through the Brisbane winter was more than up to this race – she improved sharpyl second-up to lose a photo finish in the Group 2 Hollindale Stakes, ran second to Mawingo in the Group 1 Doomben Cup and then emphatically won both the Group 2 Eagle Farm Cup and the Group 2 Brisbane Cup.
• Out to 1600 metres second-up, I think she can take a much more forward position in running and be hard to hold out.

Race 8 No. 5 Steps In Time

• If you’re going to forgive a quality mare one bad run, circumstances such as “crossed to lead from barrier 11 of 12, carrying 59 kilos, first-up from a spell” are what you’re looking for. Some mares simply can’t lump big weights, so the drop back to 55.5 kilos this time may be just the tonic.
• Her form last preparation was more than up to this grade – she defeated Beaded at Group 2 level on this track, before winning a Listed mares race at the track and distance by 4.5 lengths.
• Her only two previous second-up runs have resulted in a third placing and the aforementioned win over Beaded.
• From a better barrier (eight) and with a lighter weight, I think she jumps, leads and is a great chance to win.

 

Doomben (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 8 No. 3 D’Jet

• His form this preparation has been very sound, winning twice before a last start fourth (beaten only 0.6 lengths) when he sat wide on the speed for much of the race.
• He has a win and a third from three previous starts at the distance, so the drop from 1200 to 1110 metres here should prove no problem.
• His recent times over 1200 metres have been comparable to the likely favourite I’m Cool, while the other horse firmly in the market (Double Image) has yet to win beyond 1000 metres.

 

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Thanks to Matt King/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo