The Darren Brown Theory
“Having perfected her discipline, having resolutely waited for the right moment to reveal itself, she now seizes that moment … [and] strikes in full confidence of victory”
-The Proclamation of the Republic, read by Paul Pearse, on Easter Monday, 1916
“In nature there are neither rewards nor punishment-there are consequences”
-Robert G. Ingersoll
The first quote doesn’t hold a whole lot of relevance to the article or its point, other than the fact this piece is being written on a cold and windy Canberra Easter Monday where the trees are swaying like drunkards and thoughts of the Emerald Isle and the Grand Campaign of Republicanism fill my head. Well, not all that relevant to those who aren’t Catholic in faith or Irish in heritage…
That is all definitely by the by and probably a wistful distraction we didn’t need right now…but it’s done, written in the tablet of time, and it’s time to move on…
And with bells clanging and angels singing and the smell of freshly laid tar in the air, we start again, afresh.
Ingersoll was right on the nut, there is no doubting that. Everything is a result of something else and with seemingly no logical or reasonable reward -punishment scale or system or order…Sweet Patrick! It is too painful to think too deeply about and it will send you mad at any rate, so you’ll just have to trust me on this point.
And if you can’t muster up that kind of trust for a writer with a penchant for whiskey and threatening letters, well, it is probably best if you get off at the next stop. And if not, well, let’s just say that you’ve been warned…
Like trying to comprehend the concept of eternity or the machinations of the fax machine, the theory of consequence, when delved too deeply into, is impossible to grasp. But the simple logic makes a whole heap of sense and is entirely relevant to those of us in the gambling community.
Simply, every action/factor linked to a particular event will be of some consequence to the outcome of said event. And those of us in the gambling game are in the business of predicting the outcome of events and if we want to stay in the gambling game, we need to get it right…
And hai to that!
“Now for my arrow, Andrea, and that extremely long bow I keep for reasons personal in nature…”
I shall relay a story and subsequent theorem of footballing consequence told to me by a gentleman in the throes of some maniacal all encompassing binge. I, for one, do not recall the game and would not bet a red penny on this sitting anywhere near The Truth. What elements of the story are factual or even plausible is a matter of debate. But that’s all an aside and is somewhat irrelevant, at least in relation to the point it makes.
In 1989, South Sydney were the toast of the rugby league world. Those under the age of about twenty two won’t remember these days but they did, let me assure you, exist. With the minor premiership intact, Souths were scheduled to finish the regular season against Canberra and then onward and upward to a new period of green and red glory and the eternal dream of another premiership.
So the game against Canberra held seemingly little relevance to them. The Raiders, however, had to win. A loss would see their title ambitions castrated like a crazed bull.
The Bunnies, however, showed up and performed well, leading by four points with less than a minute to play. And they had the ball and were working it out of their own twenty, grinding it up the guts. As the seconds ticked away and victory seemingly lost for the Raiders, those in the lime green sat despaired. And then, in a moment of madness that would shape the destiny of South Sydney forever, almost killing the club and lambasting it to a decade plus of mediocrity and pestilence…disaster.
Darren Brown chip kicked the ball which was cleaned up by the Raiders who flung it wide where a long forgotten Canberra winger, maybe Paul Martin but that is more guess than anything, crashed over. The try was converted and the rest, as those in the business of re-telling say, is history…
Canberra went on to win their first ever premiership four weeks later, entering a period of rugby league dominance not since matched. And South Sydney, well, have not made the semi finals since…have been thrown out of the game…have been crippled by politics and fighting…bought and sold for the bottom buck…
Two destinies shaped by one chip kick.
Had Darren Brown not kicked that ball, the Raiders would not have made the finals…the likelihood of the Bunnies making the grand final shot up…if the Bunnies succeed and make a grand final, George Piggins sticks on as coach, staying away from the administrative side, at least for a while…due to the success of the club and the stability it offers (with George thinking football and not politics), quality players get signed and the Bunnies have more success…they don’t get thrown out and they don’t merge and they don’t sell…the members own a reasonably successful rugby league club who trawl the troughs and scale the peaks in the same seasonal waves that every club must ride…
And he looked on like an owl, completely serious and without humour.
Now obviously, a few assumptions have been made and anybody with the intelligence of a gnat could poke a whole or two in the simplistic logic that led to that theorem…
He was no Pythagoras, make no mistake on that point.
But that’s not the point. This isn’t one of those times when you’re cranked on league and get involved in one of those Darren Brown reminiscing trips. And this isn’t one of those times where facts or details or The Truth is important. And as much as it goes against my near-perfect instincts, this is not about stomping the bollocks of “Gorgeous” George Piggins.
The point, made in a rambling and roundabout manner, is that all actions and inactions have consequences. As gamblers, we have to be pertinently aware that this occurs and have the systems, mental or otherwise, to factor the importance of important actions and the probability of the likely outcome based on previous actions.
To make the nut in this game, you need to think about the likely consequence of a likely action. Not every minor detail need be analysed, nor is it possible to do so. But you don’t want to miss the obvious…
Much like the good old boy who asked the genie to be hung like a horse…well, he wasn’t real amused when he looked out from the gallows, noose around the neck and high noon approaching, hoisted on all fours with a saddle on his back.
It will be profitable to think about the logical outcomes of an event and the consequences it will have, that is for sure and certain.
That, worldly reader, is that.