The Early Line: Preliminary Finals Weekend

Manly have opened up 4.5 point favourites against Brisbane in their preliminary final at the Sydney Football Stadium.

There is supposedly a question mark over Broncos skipper Darren Lockyer after surgery on his fractured cheekbone but there is absolutely no doubt that the champion will play. And it does seem like he is on a fairytale run. That kind of inspiration will count for plenty. The Broncos have now won eight straight while Manly have won eight of their last 10. Manly have won five of their last seven against the Broncos but lost in the final round of the regular season though, admittedly, without a number of their stars. They won plenty of admirers with their 18-10 defeat. Manly are 16-0 in Sydney this year while the Broncos are 3-1 in the Silver City. Manly are 4-4 at the SFS dating back to 2008 while the Broncos are 10-1-2 at the venue going back to 2004.

I think the plus is a little too big here. The week off will do the Eagles no favours, the Broncos appear the team of destiny and Brisbane rarely let a road trip to the SFS stop them in September. Bet Brisbane with 4.5 for 2 units.

No total play.

COVER FORM:Manly 16-9 (LWWWW), Brisbane 16-10 (WWLWL)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Manly 11-14 (OOUUO), Brisbane 11-15 (UUUOU)
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Melbourne go into their enticing preliminary final against New Zealand as 6.5 to 7.5 point favourites against the Warriors.

I think Melbourne are vulnerable here. The Warriors won with no luck against the Tigers while the Storm have struggled in attack over the last month. The Warriors also have an intimidating forward pack that can get on top of the smallish Storm forwards. The Storm have won only three of their last eight against the Warriors including one win in their last four against the Warriors in Melbourne. The Warriors will also be helped by a crowd that will be predominantly cheering for the Warriors.

The Storm have too much class to bet against in this situation but the Warriors have also covered every match bar one since round 18. No bet but a lean to the plus.

Both these teams are under teams, they play under games. Bet 2 units on the under if the line is 34.5 or bigger.

COVER FORM:Melbourne 16-9 (WLLLL), New Zealand 17-9 (WWWLW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Melbourne 9-16 (OUUOU), New Zealand 9-17 (UOUOU)
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Tips: Brisbane, Melbourne

2 units on Brisbane +4.5 at $1.91 at Sportingbet
2 units on Under (Storm-Warriors) if line is 34.5 or bigger
Remember, a standing 2 unit under bet exists on any game when the rains have come

Round    Bets     Units Bet       Units Returned         +/-
1                   3         1.5                 0.95                            -0.45
2                   6          6                   0.92                            -5.08
3                   7         11                  7.38                            -3.62
4                   8         13                 16.51                           +3.51
5                  10       16                  13.15                           -2.85
6                   8         14.5              19.60                           +5.10
7                   8         15                 11.66                           -3.34    
8                   9         18.5              27.74                           +9.24   
9                   4         6.5                 9.64                            +3.14
10                 7         14                 15.29                           +1.29
11                 5          11                 4.78                             -6.22
12                 9         18                 15.38                           -2.62
13                 7         14.5              13.38                           -1.12
14                 6         10.5              15.32                           +4.82
15                 6         11                 18.19                           +7.19
16                 9         16.5              23.89                           +7.39
17                 7         13                 20.13                           +7.13
18                10        18.5              12.43                            -6.07
19                11        20.5              13.40                            -7.10
20                 9         16                 22.94                           +6.94
21                 7         13.5              3.84                             -9.66
22                10        15                 12.27                           -2.73    
23                 8         12.5              16.23                          +3.73
24                 9         17                 17.64                          +0.64
25                 8         14.5              15.36                          +0.86
26                 7         10.5              9.50                            -1.00
27                 3         6.5                2.38                            -4.12
28                 3         5                   3.84                            -1.16

Total      Bets     Units Bet    Units Returned          +/-

                204         360               363.84                          +3.84