The Fantasy King: Round 3
By Mick Adams
What a round. Fensom and Dugan suffer injuries early in the Roosters vs. Canberra game. T-Rex facing a ten week suspension, Farah rubbed out for two. Sharks win but Carney nowhere to be found; only managing 24 points. Marshall was average. Hindmarsh was average. Cherry-Evans was average. As you know, my mantra in the opening rounds of this fantasy season has been “Don’t Panic”. I’m going to slightly amend that now to “Let’s all go balls-out insane with panic. AARRRGGGHHHHH#$&%!!! AARRRGGGHHHH!!!!!!”. Ah, that felt good, didn’t it? Now that we’ve got that out of the way, let’s get back in the game, as there are several reasons that Round Three is not as big as a disaster as it might seem at first.
1. The bar has been lowered
At the tail-end of last year’s competition, it was not uncommon to see scores of over 1500 take out the weekly prize, and even in my humble league scores of 1200 and 1300 became routine among the top four. You had all of the usual suspects firing on all cylinders in the forwards, halves like JT and Benji and backs like Jamie Lyon and Matt Cooper posting consistently big scores. It’s just not happening this year, and with Shaun Fensom now joining Parker in the casualty ward, the discrepancy has been made even more glaring. Temper your expectations, at this stage the points just aren’t there.
2. You are not Robinson Crusoe
Fensom your captain? Burned. Robbie Farah in your team? Burned. Tony Williams? Burned. Jarryd Hayne? Todd Carney? Clint Newton? Burned, burned, burned. If you haven’t been affected by any of these, don’t get too smug, all it means that you haven’t been doing it right. The likes of Carney and Newton were at the top of the list of preseason cheap buys, while Williams’ early season form and wing/centre availability made him the breakout star of the early season trading period. Fensom, Hayne and Farah are fantasy superstars. No seasoned fantasy player could have possibly avoided taking a hit on at least a couple of these players, bringing me to my point: you are not alone.
3. Crisotunity
When Michael Gordon went down injured last year with his fantasy value at an astronomical level, it was a blow for anyone who owned him. Perversely however, it actually proved of great benefit, providing a huge war chest for players to pimp their teams. With the long-term unavailability of Parker and Fensom the same is true now. Use those funds wisely, and it could set you up for the rest of the year. All is not lost.
ROUND THREE WATCHLIST
Sons of Slippery
Josh Morris has started the season on fire at the Dogs, with Hasler’s game plan obviously suiting him better than Kevin Moore’s. Now Brett has joined in on the act. He was an absolute revelation at fullback for the Dragons against the Tigers, and has been named there again this week. In the Dragons’ premiership season two years ago, B-Moz was one of the best backs in fantasy, averaging over 60 points a week. He was less prolific last year as the rest of the competition came to grips with the rather limited attacking structure of the Dragons, but if he can produce more performances like Friday night’s he will be a must-own. At this stage however, I lean slightly towards Josh. There is no guarantee how long Brett will stay at fullback, and a switch back to the wing could reduce his point scoring ability. Furthermore, the Bulldogs have started the year in ominous form, and Hasler clearly sees Morris as a vital cog in the backline.
Greg Inglis
Like Brett Morris, GI’s move to the back paid off big time, fantasy-wise and on the field. Also like Morris, he’s been named there again this week, and he has a good chance of making it his permanent home at the Bunnies. It must be remembered that he first came to grade as an Origin-period replacement for Billy Slater, and there are a number of observers who have said it’s his natural position. Could we finally see his fantasy value match his immense talent? The caveat with Inglis however is so blindingly obvious it scarcely needs to be mentioned: can he stay on the park? Injuries have plagued him the last few years and I’m rather wary of taking the plunge on him right at the moment. He does offer great value though…
Feleti Mateo
Obviously, Paul Gallen is now the most important acquisition, and those who don’t own him should make this the top priority. Mateo shapes up as the next most likely however. He absolutely killed it against the Bulldogs, and was almost as potent the week before. The risk is that at no stage in his career has he been able to string together a season of consistently playing at the high standard he’s capable of, which may turn some people off. He had a significant price jump this week and is due for another one though, so if you’re game to back him, now is the time to pounce.
THE DUDS
Clint Newton
All the preseason buzz about Newton was that he’d improved as a player in England and had significantly increased his work rate. As I don’t have any masochistic tendencies, I haven’t seen too much of the Panthers so far this year so can’t comment on his playing abilities, but it’s safe to say that he hasn’t lived up to the hype in fantasy terms, averaging only 30, and dropping in value even from his modest starting position. If you own him as a non-playing reserve it would be silly to waste a trade punting him, but if he’s in your 17 he’s got to go.
Jamie Lyon
The fantasy form of players such as Lyon is why this year has been so hard to read so far. Last year Lyon was in the top echelon of backs, reliably posting high scores every week. This year he averages under 40 with a high score of 51. It’s early days yet though, definitely not time to trade. There’s every chance he’ll come good at some stage in the season but it must be frustrating for Lyon owners at the moment.
Dave Taylor
Now this is a controversial one. The Coal Train had a sensational two-try performance on Sunday, and a score of 67 is respectable by any standards. But think about that for a second- he’s a forward who scored two tries and only totalled 67. Take out those tries and he’s down to 37, signs that his work rate is an ongoing problem in fantasy terms. I love watching him play, and at his best he is one of the best forwards in the game, but he has a persistent lazy streak, and you get the sense that he may never be as good as his talent suggests he should be. He will no doubt get you some great fantasy scores; just don’t expect them every week.
