The Forgive Files – March 16

This week’s edition of The Forgive Files takes us to the March 16 meetings at Bendigo and Warwick Farm.

Bendigo

Delegance: He is a horse who is best fresh and who typically prefers to jump and lead over distances shorter than 1100 metres, so he can be forgiven for tiring late in Saturday’s 1100-metre sprint. He has two wins and two placings from five first-up runs, compared to one win and four placings from 11 races thereafter. Wait for him to resume next preparation over 1000 metres or thereabouts before backing him again.

Spot On Maggie: She drew very wide (gate 13 of 14) and travelled wide for much of the journey, but still managed to run on reasonably strongly. Importantly though,  she is invariably a better horse for her first-up run – she now has no wins and two placings from five runs fresh, compared to two wins and four placings from 11 runs thereafter. Moreover, 1200 metres is her optimum distance, so we can expect more from her second-up (two wins from three previous attempts) if she has another crack at that trip.

Chateau Margaux: Was the victim of what could most flatteringly be described as a ‘very cold’ ride. She was snagged back to last, then went to the rail (a very difficult position from which to obtain clear running) and spent much of the home straight unsuccessfully looking for clear running. Given that she ran second to Thy (who won a black type race on Saturday) when resuming last preparation, I think she can be expected to be much more prominent in running next start and finish accordingly.

Folding Gear: He worked home quite nicely for a horse who always take two or three runs to come to hand. He now has no wins and two placings from 10 starts when either first or second-up, compared to four wins and two placings from eight starts thereafter. When you consider that the two unplaced runs were a seventh (beaten only three lengths) in a Caulfield Cup and a ninth in the Group 3 Queen Elizabeth Stakes behind Puissance De Lune, that record is excellent. A potential third-up run at Caulfield over 2000 metres in the Group 3 Easter Cup could be just the ticket.

Warwick Farm

Shannara: She is a mare who needs racing to reach her optimum performance level. Her unplaced run on Saturday brings her record when either first or second-up to one win and six placings from 15 starts, compared to three wins and two seconds from 10 races thereafter. In addition, she has never won over a trip shorter than 1300 metres – her record over 1200 now stands at seven starts for no wins and three placings. Put simply, she needs both racing and a longer trip.

Jade Marauder and Shamardani: Both mares were undone by the pace of this race. They ran through the first 1000 metres in a very pedestrian 1:03.10, before sprinting home in 34.44 seconds to miss the track record by almost three seconds. Both these horses were drawn wide and had little option but to snare back in the field (they were last and second last at the 800-metre mark), leaving them with little hope in the run home. Both need a more honest early tempo and can bounce back if they get it next start.

Thanks to Vince Caligiuri/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo