The Turning of the Tide: Never Underestimate a Winner and Words of Gratitude for the Trade Union Movement

“I was surprised, I was happy for a day in 1975”
-Belle and Sebastian, The State I am In

That day was November 11 and all decent Australians who had suffered through three years of apocalyptic mismanagement, unprecedented government criminality and torturous leftist moralism under Gough Whitlam and his ALP cronies had been redeemed by the wholly correct and completely sensible actions of Governor General Sir John Kerr. It was a day for the ages and one that is still held close to the heart of all Australians with any semblance of intelligence and decency. “Well may we say God Save The Queen because nothing will save the Governor General” Whitlam smugly belched on learning of his dismissal, showing once more that this was nothing but a game to him and the faceless men of the ALP who pulled the strings. He did, however, fail to note that nothing would save himself from the realms of political liability and public irrelevance, that the die had been cast and he had his few remaining chips- no doubt acquired in the most straight-up and honest of manners- planted firmly on the green felt. He and his blind acolytes still howl of Kerr’s Cur, robotically to a man yelling of injustice and skullduggery whilst all the while, moist-eyed, recalling the progressivism of the era as if progress in itself is an achievement with no regard paid to the destruction of said progress and the rubble and bones left in its path.

Australia had made a mistake. It was not time for Whitlam or Cairns or Connor or any of the Labor Party hacks and politicos who sought some perverted vengeance on the Australian way of life and very nearly achieved a complete annihilation of same. There never was a time and it was merely a coincidence of history that the Great Australian Mistake was ever realised. Those in the guts of it all know how lucky we were to escape from it all with anything and with so little blood spilt. If Whitlam had of been allowed to continue, the streets of Sydney and Canberra and Melbourne and God knows where else would have been stained crimson and wild with desperation. Those in the guts remember the relief of November 11, the exhilaration of seeing a fool purged.

And those with a taste for good governance and sound economic management will not forget June 4 of this year either. It is not nearly as important as November 11, 1975 but it will be a day that is recalled fondly by the legion of John Howard supporters. It was the day that the tide began to turn, the day Kevin Rudd knew he had more than a lame-duck Government, an aging PM and the sprouting of left wing ideals on his hands. The picture is as clear as day…the alternative Prime Minister, pixie legs resting firmly on his wood paneled desk, suit jacket neatly hanging on the wall, papers in hand, a freshly brewed latte only recently rushed in by an ever-loving advisor realizing only too well how her political fortunes rest completely with her boss in hand, about to mull over the morning newspapers, colour draining from his face with each poll result and each mention of Howard’s self-depreciation and each article with a trade union figure as its central protagonist, yelling and panic and genuine fear filling the halls.

The winds have changed in political circles and the smart money has been laid down on the Coalition this week at the 10-9 available. That price won’t be seen again before polling day. The dreams of Laborites are beginning to shatter, the hopes held by those with left wing tendencies crumbling before their very eyes. The polls have turned, the issues changed and the opposition steeled…and all of this is does not bode too well for the modern day Doc Evatt.

Polls don’t mean much, particularly this far out when the electorate is generally not engaged and especially for a government, who inevitably suffer dips in poll support between elections. But the fact that John Howard pulled 8 percentage points off the ALP lead in one week would have Labor apologists and sympathizers sweating profusely from the brow. The large poll change does not reflect a sudden increased support for the Government but rather shows the fragility of the support the ALP believed they had leading into the election. Essentially, the stable base of support Labor believed it had built through exploiting fear over work choices and the environment was non-existent. It was a castle built on sand and that fact is only just starting to hit home on Sussex Street and every other Labor foxhole around the country. Claims of a change in the national mood look highly dubious right about now.

The negative reinforcement that these poll results will have on swinging voters also has Kevin Rudd weak in the cruets. Many of the voters the ALP was hoping to win over could choose to stick with the Howard team because they will believe this incarnation of the Labor Party is essentially no different to recent versions trotted out. People like a winner…and if the electorate does not believe Labor is a chance, they actually are no chance and many swinging voters who would have supported them if the election was competitive will abandon them. But that is a fair way off yet…

A hell of a lot more worrying for the children of the left and those political whores who have chosen the ALP as their vehicle is the changing of the political scenery. While work choices is still resonating in the electorate John Howard, a political master of the highest order, has subtly changed the dynamics of the election through positioning himself as the underdog. Howard has cranked it up a notch in the most delicate of ways and is being assisted no end by a mainstream media that has always shown support to the Howard Government.

This is no longer just about the new industrial relations laws, no longer just a one way attack from the left designed to create change through fear. This is now about fight-back. In a manner similar to the way Howard orchestrated The Victory in 1996, in a manner akin to the masterstroke of selling the GST in 1998, in a manner the style of using border protection to win the confidence of the electorate in 2001, Howard has turned the focus back on Labor and rightfully pointed out the shortcomings of the party and the threat a Labor victory would see become reality.

This time around, the spotlight is on trade unionism and their unhealthy and archaic domination of the ALP. In recent times there have been many public reports of thuggery and intimidation by union officials with many threatening to get heavy “when Kevin Rudd is elected”. Strong-arm tactics have always been a hallmark of unions in this country and with prominent union officials such as Greg Combet and Doug Cameron deciding the time is right to pick up a plush seat with a better pay packet, Kevin Rudd will have some trouble distancing himself from them. Failure to do so will result in further political defeat for the ALP and Kevin Rudd becoming yet another victim of union insistence that the ALP is their political arm. Punters genuinely and quite rightly hold a genuine fear that an ALP government will restore union power which in turn will severely affect many.

The facts of this election remain fairly simple at this stage. Howard is a political master and a winner. Kevin Rudd is a novice surrounded by those who have driven the ALP to the brink of political oblivion. The ALP lacks the charismatic leader that they require to win government and cannot seem to distance itself from the millstone of the trade union movement. And at the end of the day, the election will primarily be decided on matters of economics and the ALP cannot hold a candle to the Coalition when it comes to a record of sound economic management. Simply, the issues don’t provide much hope for Labor and neither does history or micro-analysis. The seats and the voters are just not there for a Labor victory.

So the better than even money is gag worthy. Hustle as much cash as possible and hit every bookie in Australia as soon as possible because within a month the Coalition will be favourites again, as they should be now.

There will be plenty who say that these are only the weird rants of a conservative ball-buster. And to a certain extent, they would be right. But above politics is the gambler inside and he would never allow a perversion of common sense for matters such as political persuasions. It is tough to romanticize the Right-while the likes of Michael Moore and Al Gore are lauded as heroes fighting for noble causes, the likes of  “Papa Bear” Bill O’Reilly and Andrew Bolt are branded crazed Nazi pigfuckers- and I am not about to give it a whack. These are the thoughts of a bettor who found a decent wager. 2007 will be another one for the good guys. And June 4 will be the day that scholars will look back on as the day Howard staged one last great comeback.