The Weirdness Rolls On

Everything just seems a little askew this year. Not quite right. Off centre, underdone, obtuse.

Even Tim Rogers fucked up and that is just about as common as seeing a modern day Al Jolson impersonator.

It has become an annual tradition since moving south to head down the Prince of Wales in St. Kilda to watch You Am I rock out on the two nights preceding the Cup. It is a fine way to wind down from the heaviness of Derby Day and it tends to get the Cup party underway in the appropriate style of heavy drinking, sweaty shirts and a good ol’ fashioned rock and roll sing-a-long.

Not this year, however. Just over a day after the worst Melbourne Cup field since Mr. Lomondy was sent around favourite back in ’86 was announced, You Am I decided to jack out such a god-awful show that I couldn’t help but feel 2009 was a cursed year, one full of weirdness and oddness and downers. That is how the Earth Ox works, I guess, but even those with a skill for forecast would have struggled to grasp the carnage handed out to the Melbourne Cup on Saturday.

For every obscure post-2006 song You Am I decided to pump out to a lifeless audience hanging for a classic, memory of a weird Derby Day happening came to mind. The scratching of Cup favourite Efficient. The withdrawal of Kirklees. Zipping getting caught under the barriers and taken out of both the Mackinnon and the Melbourne Cup. The refusal of the idiotic VRC Committee to use their discretionary powers to put the well credentialed Vigor into the field ahead of any number of whackers.

I did, of course, have plenty of time to think as yet another song nobody knew was played to a lacklustre audience hoping against diminishing hope for a string of old time classics that would make us feel happy and young and in the throes of man love with Tim Rogers. That time never came, however. We got some Cathy’s Clown, some Junk, a few minor hits off Hi Fi Way…and that was it. With no record to promote, it left most in attendance furious and caused any number of arguments with those do-gooders defending the set list, including some red headed clown who can consider himself lucky his “go-go dancing” girlfriend was holding him back. It would seem only these jokers and the sizable woman with the sweatiest side-boob I have ever had the misfortune of seeing enjoyed the gig from a band who almost never let anybody down.

That time to think was spent considering the Melbourne Cup and how three of my top four picks when I woke up on Saturday morning were not in the Cup field come 6pm. My ice cold wagering streak has seemingly taken a greater reach than even I anticipated. Efficient was the best bet since the hare took on the tortoise until rumours swept Melbourne that he was injured and fat before he was taken out on Saturday morning by Lloyd Williams. Lloyd’s next best hope and my favourite galloper Zipping then got weird and freaky for the first time in his career and went the protest by laying down in the barrier stalls. It was not a wise move, leaving The Zip Zip Man to miss what would likely have been his last Cup run.

After the Williams pair came out my focus went to Vigor. He ran a brilliant third in the Caulfield Cup, caught wide and forced to sustain a long run. Switch the runs of Viewed and Vigor around and Vigor wins the Caulfield Cup by over two lengths. With no weight he would surely have gone close to scoring at Flemington. As Saturday rolled on and horses continued to drop out, everybody assumed Vigor would be in the field. He was 25th in the order of entry but he would surely be promoted ahead of a four legged cripple like Gallions Reach or Spin Around or Capecover. No dice. Vigor was told he was welcome to try his luck in the Cup Day Hurdle Without Hurdles while Danny O’Brien was subtly informed that he will be given no favours if he is not prepared to play politics. “Run in the Mackinnon and you get in but take your chances by missing Derby day and you will be watching the Cup from the stands.”

That leaves only one galloper, to my eye, who is deserving of heavy support and that is the defending champion Viewed. He has been thrown in at the weights after handicapper Greg Carpenter decided to penalise Bart’s horse only 1 kilogram after his dominant Caulfield Cup victory. Carpenter argued that he could not give Viewed more weight than Efficient despite the dominance of his Caulfield Cup victory that should have seen him cop at least a 2kg penalty but with Efficient now out of the race, Viewed’s 58kg impost makes him the best weighted horse in the race. He has been thrown in with whackers like C’est La Guerre and Fiumicino spotting Viewed only 2 ½ kg.

Viewed really gets all the ticks. Aside from being the best weighted galloper in the race despite victories in last year’s Melbourne Cup and this year’s Caulfield Cup, he is trained by one James Bartholomew Cummings, the Cups King and the hottest trainer in Australia after winning the Cox Plate and Caulfield Cup along with a host of other stakes races over the carnival. Viewed is drawn to perfection in the nine gate. He has a very good jockey in Brad Rawiller. He is a proven weight carrier after lugging 57kg to a Caulfield Cup win as well as placing at group one level three times at weight-for-age with 59kg. His run in the Mackinnon was outstanding. He stays like a bad hangover.

There is just no knock on Viewed and in the weakest Melbourne Cup in living memory he is the one to beat. He may be favourite for the race but he is big overs at anything in excess of $4.00.

I’m prepared to pot second favourite Alcopop. He should be close up but Balaklava Cup form isn’t really the kind of race that produces Melbourne Cup winners and with a no name trainer-jockey combination, form through the Herbert Power (only Rogan Josh has competed the double in the last thirty years) and a lack of racing experience he looks serious unders. Throw him into trifectas but don’t take the $5.50 currently on offer unless you are a masochist who loves self harm.

Other horses I will be potting are all four-year-olds, those down the bottom of the weights and the majority of the international gallopers.

Stay out of Roman Emperor, Harris Tweed, Daffodil, Shocking, Allez Wonder and Changingoftheguard. Only two four-year-olds have won since Might and Power (Efficient and Ethereal) and they both had a lot more class than this lot. Considering the fact AJC Derby and Oaks winners have a shocking record in the Cup, Roman Emperor and Daffodil can be potted pretty easily. Allez Wonder has a terrible rider and Cup winners don’t come through the Toorak. Shocking was brilliant on Saturday but has been well handled by Alcopop at his two previous runs, he is down in the weights and Hotham Handicap form is traditionally rubbish. Harris Tweed probably isn’t going well enough and is drawn the carpark while horses don’t win a Melbourne Cup fresh at start number eight so leave me out of Changingoftheguard.

I can’t really get too excited about any of the internationals. As is always the case, you couldn’t pay me to bet an international galloper at his first run on Australian soil. Therefore we can put a line through Mourilyan, Munsef and Warringah. Crime Scene didn’t appear to do much at Geelong. Basaltico clearly looks the best of the foreign raiders. He got home a treat in the Geelong Cup when luckless in running and he will appreciate the wide surrounds of Flemington. He can be thrown into trifectas.

Two horses that will definitely be getting my each-way cash and that will be filling my trifectas are Master O’Reilly and Newport.

2007 Caulfield Cup winner Master O’Reilly is so consistent and though he hasn’t won in two years he never runs a bad race. He has gotten home a treat in each of his five starts this preparation and was flying into fourth in last year’s Melbourne Cup. The old boy is going to give you a sight and if he can see out the two miles then he has the class to finish in the first three.

The best roughie is Newport. Newport ran the fastest final furlong in the Mackinnon, he stays the 3200 metres, he has won a Metropolitan in the past and he has the racing in his legs. The wide barrier and the hopeless jockey are the big concerns but at $34 the big grey is worth an each-way ticket.

For all intents and purposes, Bart has one hand on his thirteenth Melbourne Cup. Fairytales do come true and in 2009 we will be treated to the most popular Cup fairytale of them all: another Bart win. Viewed is going to storm to victory. Only bad luck or a vicious heel turn by the Gods will prevent it. Once upon a time at a place called Flemington…

Melbourne Cup Selections

1. Viewed
2. Master O’Reilly
3. Newport
4. Alcopop
5. Basaltico
6. Shocking
Best Roughie: Newport