Weight is Everything

From The Slicer

The weights for the Caulfield Cup were released during the week and while there may still be a bit of tweaking by the handicapper it gives punters a fairly good indication of the weights for the big one in November.  Now we have an idea of the weights, we start to get a picture of who will get in.  

Only two international runners contested the 1993 Cup. When Vintage Crop won the first of the International era Melbourne Cups in 1993, half of the final field got into the race with a handicap of less than 53kg.  The following year, two thirds of the final field of 24 had a weight of less than 53kg.  In 2003 as Makybe Diva won the first of three Cups, all but five runners in the final field carried 53kg or less.   Even in 2009 all but seven of the final field had 53kg or less with seven carrying 51.5kg or less. It was clear that a horse with 53kg was a sure bet to make it to the final field. 

Many local trainers and connections have criticised the internationalisation of the Melbourne Cup for making it harder to get locally trained runners into the final field.  This may be true.  Gone is the era of filling up the Cup with out of form stayers, on the minimum weight, starting at triple figure odds and surely the Cup is better for it. The running of the 150^th Melbourne Cup saw nine overseas trained horses making the final field and just three runners make the final field with 53kg or less.  

I keep mentioning 53kg.  Despite the increasing number of foreign trained horses this seems to be a fairly useful cut off point for assessing weather your Cup fancy, has a reasonable chance of making the final field. Last year eight of the final Melbourne Cup field had less than 53kg. With the Caulfield Cup weights released this week, 29 horses were allotted a weight higher than 53kg.  Seven of these were not nominated for the Melbourne Cup.  A further thirteen horses were handicapped at 53kg with three of those not nominated for the Melbourne Cup.

Taking a line through the Caulfield Cup, thirty two horses with 53kg or more are aiming for a start in the Melbourne Cup. There will no doubt be an attrition rate among the current Cup contenders.  Consideration will also need to be given to some additional horses nominated only for the Melbourne Cup that will be high up in the weights when the Melbourne Cup handicaps are released.  There are also other factors to consider such as prizemoney, qualifying conditions and the age and sex of your Cup fancy.  But for anyone keen on pre post betting, 53kg, as in previous years, looks a reasonable benchmark when assessing, if your Cup fancy is a good chance of making the Melbourne Cup field.