2012 AFL Season Preview – Hawthorn, Collingwood and Geelong
The 2012 AFL season looms large on the horizon – new coaches, new structures and once again this year, a new entrant to the competition. How will it all shake out? In the sixth and final part of our season preview, Greg Oberscheidt and Cliff Bingham look at the three premiership favourites – Hawthorn, Collingwood and defending champions Geelong. They also provide a summary of their projected final premiership ladders and any recommended futures bets for the upcoming season.
Previous Instalments
Part 1: Introduction, Greater Western Sydney, Gold Coast and Port Adelaide
Part 2: Brisbane, Adelaide and Melbourne
Part 3: Richmond, Fremantle and Western Bulldogs
Part 4: North Melbourne, Essendon and St Kilda
Part 5: Sydney, Carlton, West Coast
HAWTHORN
2011 record: 18-4 (third place on ladder, eliminated in preliminary final)
Home and away season – average points for/ against: 107.0 points for, 74.3 points against (144.1 per cent)
Home and away season – record against top-8 teams: 5-3 (played one team twice)
Home and away season – record against bottom-8 teams: 13-1 (played five teams twice)
Home and away season – record in games decided by two goals or less: 3-1
Teams played twice in 2012: Collingwood, Geelong, Port Adelaide, Sydney, West Coast (combined 2011 record of 71-38-1)
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This could sound like a bunch of bullshit given that I am a Hawthorn supporter but I think Clarko’s approach to beating the press is the work of a visionary. Hawthorn’s strength for a number of years has been their skill, especially by foot and the way they are able to maintain possession and pick a path through the press is the envy of every other team in the competition.
They also have the luxury of boasting a couple of pretty handy players in Franklin, Hodge, Mitchell, Rioli, Roughead, Gibson, Birchall, Sewell and so on. Their forward line is potent and bolstered by the addition of Jack Gunston. Their defence was crippled last year but found a way to succeed. The return of Gilham and Stratton will ease the pressure on the role players. Their midfield is hard-nosed and skilful with a great balance of ball winners and ball carriers.
The emergence of Smith, Suckling , Sheils and Savage adds to their depth and they now have 30 legitimate first graders on their list, which has proven to be needed to win the ‘holy grail’ over the last five seasons. Bailey’s injury hurts them, as they’ll be reluctant to play Roughie in the ruck in the first six weeks. Hale will have to stand up and Jarrad Bourmann looks like he could play as a tall utility.
They’d be mad not to win the flag this year. 2012 outlook – 18 wins.
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The Hawks were very impressive in 2011 – of that there is no question. Yet a bit like with the Eagles, their overall 18-4 record was flattered somewhat by an easier-than-average draw and getting the good end of most of their close matches.
Compare this to their 2012 draw (where they play each of the other 2011 preliminary finalists twice), in particular the first six weeks – Collingwood, Geelong, Adelaide, West Coast (in Perth), Sydney (in Tasmania) and St Kilda. A 3-3 start to the season is well within the realms of possibility.
For a team who went so close to a grand final berth last year despite key injuries, bringing back essentially the same squad as last year is fair enough. I think they’ll once again be a major top-4 contender and by extension, a premiership threat. Just remember though that including finals last year they went a combined 0-5 against Geelong and Collingwood, with at least four more games against those two sides in 2012. As a consequence, I just can’t see another 18-win season coming. 2012 outlook – 14 wins (‘snake’ side in 2012).
COLLINGWOOD
2011 record: 20-2 (first place on ladder, runner-up)
Home and away season – average points for/ against: 117.8 points for, 70.3 points against (167.7 per cent)
Home and away season – record against top-8 teams: 9-2 (played four teams twice)
Home and away season – record against bottom-8 teams: 11-0 (played two teams twice)
Home and away season – record in games decided by two goals or less: 1-1
Teams played twice in 2012: Carlton, Geelong, Hawthorn, West Coast, Essendon (combined 2011 record of 79-29-2)
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After 150 years the Pies finally have been dealt a tough draw, even though they still play 14 games at the MCG and 17 in total in Melbourne. The Pies deserve to press for favouritism once again in 2012 after setting the standard for the last three seasons. Nonetheless, it is hard to imagine that the departure of Malthouse will not cause a few waves. If Buckley coaches like he played then there is a fair chance his assistants (are there any left at Collingwood?) will be doing all the work and Bucks will just pop up at the final siren to collect the spoils.
Their list is red hot, especially in the midfield where even their third string players are elite. Reid leads a very well-disciplined defence that continues to punch above their weight and Cloke is now considered by many as the most influential player in the game – it’s hard to disagree.
A few cracks started to appear last year though with Dawes struggling to regain form after an injury and his pre-season hasn’t been great. Jolly looks like he could be reaching the end of his journey, Maxwell is struggling to justify his place in the team (with some of the younger players showing him up) and the constant speculation over contractual arrangements for their gun players has caused some friction.
They do have Swan, Pendlebury and Thomas in the engine room though and any team that boasts that is a serious threat. 2012 outlook – 17 wins.
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I’ll give the AFL this much – they saw some immensely lopsided contests coming in 2012 and did their best to ‘level the playing field’ by giving the best 2011 teams the toughest draws this time around. The Magpies may get 14 games at the MCG and 17 all told in Melbourne, but look at the combined 2011 record of the teams they play twice this year – and you thought Hawthorn’s draw was tough!
Much scrutiny will fall onto Nathan Buckley this season, with the shadow of departed coach Mick Malthouse looming large. To my mind though, less credit for the successes in 2010 and 2011 (his two years as assistant coach) fell to Buckley than he perhaps was due. The Magpies have lost only seven games in the two seasons he has been at the club, so I expect him to thrive in the head coaching role.
In some sense they and Geelong are the toughest two teams to write about in 2012 – they were the clear top two last year and unsurprisingly, the Pies have made minimal changes (the pre-ordained senior coach change notwithstanding) to the formula that saw only one other side beat them all of last season. They will almost certainly be in the frame come late September, but with such a tough draw ahead of them, I expect a slight dip on their 20-win season of last year. 2012 outlook – 17 wins.
GEELONG
2011 record: 19-3 (second place on ladder, premiers)
Home and away season – average points for/ against: 115.8 points for, 73.6 points against (157.4 per cent)
Home and away season – record against top-8 teams: 8-3 (played four teams twice)
Home and away season – record against bottom-8 teams: 11-0 (played two teams twice)
Home and away season – record in games decided by two goals or less: 6-2
Teams played twice in 2012: Collingwood, Adelaide, Hawthorn, Western Bulldogs, Sydney (combined 2011 record of 66-43-1)
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They’ve won three of the last five and can comfortably say they are as good a team as any in the AFL era. Chris Scott took the bit between the teeth last year and put an even sharper edge on an already well-honed weapon.
They’ve got more superstars than you’d care to count and the way Bartel and Corey in particular responded to the departure of Ablett was incredible. There is not enough space in this column to list the pros about this footy club. Guthrie, Motlop and Smedts are straight off the production line on small forward / inside midfielders and should provide plenty of excitement this year.
Stevie J has had a cracking preseason and it is scary to think he could raise the bar this year. They will be looking for more output from Chapman as well; he had a quite year by his lofty standards in 2011. If Hawkins can stay the course after finally living up to his potential towards the end of last year, they could easily get the gong again. Ottens is a big loss for the Cats; Mooney is not.
Too much star power to discount the Cats. 2012 could be the swan song for Scarlett if they get across the line – expect them to go very close to doing so. 2012 outlook – 17 wins.
CB
Defending premiers always have a big target painted on their back, and I can’t see 2012 being an exception to this rule. The departures of Ling and Mooney reduce the experience of the squad, yet they still have 10 players with 150+ senior matches to their name.
Interestingly, the Cats play only two 2011 finalists (Hawthorn and Collingwood) in the first 10 rounds. If they can get through the first two weeks (Fremantle away, followed by Hawthorn) with a couple of wins, expect them to be leading the competition come mid-season.
Last year I thought that the departure of Gary Ablett and Mark Thompson may signal the start of the decline for a wonderful era of Cats football. Instead they came back rejuvenated and picked up a third flag in five years. It would take a brave pundit to suggest they weren’t in with a huge show of picking up a fourth one come late September. 2012 outlook – 17 wins.
PREDICTED ‘SNAKE’ AND ‘LADDER’ TEAMS
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Given that I predict the Suns and the Giants will only win four of their combined 44 games, I think that there will be more ‘laddering’ and less ‘snaking’ this year than the historic statistical trends might lead you to believe.
‘Snake’ teams (regress by at least four wins from 2011): St Kilda
‘Ladder’ teams (improve by at least four wins from 2011): Fremantle, Adelaide, Brisbane
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‘Snake’ teams (regress by at least four wins from 2011): Hawthorn, West Coast
‘Ladder’ teams (improve by at least four wins from 2011): Fremantle, Adelaide, Brisbane
FINAL PROJECTED LADDER
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Top 8: Hawthorn 72, Geelong 68, Collingwood 68, Fremantle 60, Carlton 56, West Coast 56, Sydney 52, Adelaide 48.
Remainder: Richmond 44, North Melbourne 44, Western Bulldogs 44, Essendon 40, Brisbane 36, St Kilda 32, Melbourne 32, Port Adelaide 24, Gold Coast 16, Greater Western Sydney 0.
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Top 8: Geelong 68, Collingwood 68, Carlton 60, Hawthorn 56, Fremantle 56, Sydney 52, West Coast 52, Essendon 48
Remainder: North Melbourne 48, St Kilda 44, Adelaide 44, Richmond 40, Melbourne 40, Western Bulldogs 40, Brisbane 36, Port Adelaide 20, Gold Coast 16, Greater Western Sydney 4.
RECOMMENDED BETS
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Wooden Spoon: GWS – it’s a no brainer but at $1.12, they won’t get me to open the purse.
Miss the top-8: The bookies look like they have this one pretty well set too with the only real value being about Essendon and the Saints both at $1.90. Adelaide has moved out to $2.00 after winning the NAB Cup, so if you are like Roosy and don’t rate the pre-season, it could be worth a poke.
Top-8: Fremantle at $1.80 to make the finals is my pre-season bet of the year. They are absolute morals to play in September and. Richmond at $4.00 is a bit of a speculator but they have a chance if things go their way.
Top-4: Freo again tops the chart here with the juicy odds of $5.00. They’ll be fighting it out for fourth with Carlton and West Coast (both at $2.30) so they are where my money will be heading.
Premiership: You could throw a blanket over the Hawks, Pies and Cats for the flag at this stage. I will be absolutely amazed if the premiership cup isn’t held aloft by one of these three come seasons end, so you can put a line through the $8.00 for Carlton (someone has been throwing their money away there…).
Collingwood are the favourites but one has to wonder how much of that money is being laid in the Smith Street TAB. Geelong at $5.00 is the value bet here and the Hawks at $4.50 is also pretty tasty.
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Wooden Spoon: I think the market is spot on, with GWS a heavy favourite – nothing to recommend here.
Miss the top-8: A wager on St Kilda at around the $1.90 quote is worth consideration, as to a lesser extent is one on Adelaide at around $2.00 – they may have an easy 2012 draw on paper, but they’re far from a proven commodity.
Top-8: The two best bets on the board come here. Fremantle at $1.80 is terrific value and should be snapped up, post haste. A case can also be made for Sydney at around the $1.80 quote.
Top-4: Carlton represent a touch of overs at around $2.30, as do Fremantle at longer odds of around $5.00 if you’re feeling more speculative. Both represent some value to my eye, albeit less value than the aforementioned top-8 bets.
Premiership: Since the AFL mercifully ditched the McIntyre finals system after 1998, no premier has come from outside the top four.
In the past 30 years, six sides have backed up a premiership win with another one in the following year (Carlton in 1982, Essendon in 1985, Hawthorn in 1989, Adelaide in 1998 and Brisbane in 2002 and 2003), suggesting that the $5.00 about Geelong joining this group is a fair price, though by extension offers minimal value.
Given that they drifted to almost even money on Grand Final day last year, I want no part of the Magpies as $3.25 preseason favourites – if you like them, wait until the finals and back them in a ‘DIY multi’ through each match they play. The Hawks are right in the mix for the flag, but punters have them pegged early and offer no value at around the $4.50 quote. Carlton are fourth favourites in premiership markets, which given that they failed to beat any of the top three teams last year is fair enough.
In summary, I can’t recommend a flag bet given the prices on offer.
Photo by Mark Dadswell/Getty Images AsiaPac
